Objective： To make intensified analysis upon the existing difficulties in early detection for the infectious diseases outbreak in China and put forward some effective measures to improve it. Methods： Field investiga...Objective： To make intensified analysis upon the existing difficulties in early detection for the infectious diseases outbreak in China and put forward some effective measures to improve it. Methods： Field investigation and in-depth interview were applied in 23 interviewees from different-level CDC. Results：The study findings suggest that although the timeliness of outbreak detection has been improved since SARS epidemic in China, some problems still exist, such as： ① lacking syndrome surveillance; ② report quality of infectious disease should be improved; ③ difficulties of identifying the cases at lower social economic status; ④a definite financial compensation mechanism for the operation of web-based report system is absent; ⑤insufficient information exchange among different branches. Conclusion：Some effective measures must be taken including developing syndrome surveillance system; affording more education and txaining for related staff; increasing payout on surveillance and establishing an information exchange platform for early detection of disease outbreak.展开更多
The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System（CIDARS） was successfully implemented and became operational nationwide in 2008. The CIDARS plays an important role in and has been integrated into the...The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System（CIDARS） was successfully implemented and became operational nationwide in 2008. The CIDARS plays an important role in and has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the Center for Disease Control（CDC） at all levels in China. In the CIDARS, thresholds are determined using the ？Mean＋2SD？ in the early stage which have limitations. This study compared the performance of optimized thresholds defined using the ？Mean ＋2SD？ method to the performance of 5 novel algorithms to select optimal ？Outbreak Gold Standard（OGS）？ and corresponding thresholds for outbreak detection. Data for infectious disease were organized by calendar week and year. The ？Mean＋2 SD？, C1, C2, moving average（MA）, seasonal model（SM）, and cumulative sum（CUSUM） algorithms were applied. Outbreak signals for the predicted value（Px） were calculated using a percentile-based moving window. When the outbreak signals generated by an algorithm were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week, this Px was then defined as the optimized threshold for that algorithm. In this study, six infectious diseases were selected and classified into TYPE A（chickenpox and mumps）, TYPE B（influenza and rubella） and TYPE C [hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD） and scarlet fever]. Optimized thresholds for chickenpox（P_（55））, mumps（P_（50））, influenza（P_（40）, P_（55）, and P_（75））, rubella（P_（45） and P_（75））, HFMD（P_（65） and P_（70））, and scarlet fever（P_（75） and P_（80）） were identified. The C1, C2, CUSUM, SM, and MA algorithms were appropriate for TYPE A. All 6 algorithms were appropriate for TYPE B. C1 and CUSUM algorithms were appropriate for TYPE C. It is critical to incorporate more flexible algorithms as OGS into the CIDRAS and to identify the proper OGS and corresponding recommended optimized threshold by different infectious disease types.展开更多
基金the Program"ombating with SARS and other infectious diseases"sponsored by Foreign Loan Office,Ministry of Health,China
文摘Objective： To make intensified analysis upon the existing difficulties in early detection for the infectious diseases outbreak in China and put forward some effective measures to improve it. Methods： Field investigation and in-depth interview were applied in 23 interviewees from different-level CDC. Results：The study findings suggest that although the timeliness of outbreak detection has been improved since SARS epidemic in China, some problems still exist, such as： ① lacking syndrome surveillance; ② report quality of infectious disease should be improved; ③ difficulties of identifying the cases at lower social economic status; ④a definite financial compensation mechanism for the operation of web-based report system is absent; ⑤insufficient information exchange among different branches. Conclusion：Some effective measures must be taken including developing syndrome surveillance system; affording more education and txaining for related staff; increasing payout on surveillance and establishing an information exchange platform for early detection of disease outbreak.
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education,Fudan University,China(No.GW2015-1)
文摘The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System（CIDARS） was successfully implemented and became operational nationwide in 2008. The CIDARS plays an important role in and has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the Center for Disease Control（CDC） at all levels in China. In the CIDARS, thresholds are determined using the ？Mean＋2SD？ in the early stage which have limitations. This study compared the performance of optimized thresholds defined using the ？Mean ＋2SD？ method to the performance of 5 novel algorithms to select optimal ？Outbreak Gold Standard（OGS）？ and corresponding thresholds for outbreak detection. Data for infectious disease were organized by calendar week and year. The ？Mean＋2 SD？, C1, C2, moving average（MA）, seasonal model（SM）, and cumulative sum（CUSUM） algorithms were applied. Outbreak signals for the predicted value（Px） were calculated using a percentile-based moving window. When the outbreak signals generated by an algorithm were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week, this Px was then defined as the optimized threshold for that algorithm. In this study, six infectious diseases were selected and classified into TYPE A（chickenpox and mumps）, TYPE B（influenza and rubella） and TYPE C [hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD） and scarlet fever]. Optimized thresholds for chickenpox（P_（55））, mumps（P_（50））, influenza（P_（40）, P_（55）, and P_（75））, rubella（P_（45） and P_（75））, HFMD（P_（65） and P_（70））, and scarlet fever（P_（75） and P_（80）） were identified. The C1, C2, CUSUM, SM, and MA algorithms were appropriate for TYPE A. All 6 algorithms were appropriate for TYPE B. C1 and CUSUM algorithms were appropriate for TYPE C. It is critical to incorporate more flexible algorithms as OGS into the CIDRAS and to identify the proper OGS and corresponding recommended optimized threshold by different infectious disease types.
