To improve the wind and precipitation forecasts over South China, a modified orographic drag parameterization（OP） scheme that considers both the gravity wave drag（GWD） and the mountain blocking drag（MBD） effects...To improve the wind and precipitation forecasts over South China, a modified orographic drag parameterization（OP） scheme that considers both the gravity wave drag（GWD） and the mountain blocking drag（MBD） effects was implemented in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Tropical Mesoscale Model（GRAPES-TMM）. Simulations were performed over one month starting from 1200 UTC19 June 2013. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the NCEP global forecast system output. The simulation results were compared among a control（CTL） experiment without the OP scheme, a GWDO experiment with the OP scheme that considers only the GWD effect, and an MBD experiment with the modified OP scheme（including both GWD and MBD）. The simulation with the modified OP scheme successfully captured the main features of precipitation, including its distribution and intensity,and improved the wind circulation forecast in the lower troposphere. The modified OP scheme appears to improve the wind forecast by accelerating the ascending air motion and reinforcing the convergence in the rainfall area. Overall, the modified OP scheme exerts positive impacts on the forecast of large-scale atmospheric fields in South China.展开更多
本文在GRAPES_TMM(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model)——中国南海台风模式版(面向南海和东南亚)中发展和引进了KA95(Kim and Arakawa,1995)地形重力波拖曳参数化方案(GWDO),并对2012...本文在GRAPES_TMM(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model)——中国南海台风模式版(面向南海和东南亚)中发展和引进了KA95(Kim and Arakawa,1995)地形重力波拖曳参数化方案(GWDO),并对2012年主要的9个登陆台风进行了试验对比研究,考察了不同标准Richardson数(c Ri)的GWDO试验对台风路径和强度预报的影响。结果表明,在引入地形重力波拖曳参数化过程后,模式对台风登陆时路径和强度的预报能力均要有提高,对台风预报时长越长,GWDO的影响也更为显著。对双台风"SAOLA"和"DAMREY"试验结果表明,GWDO对台风外围距台风中心150 km的对流层中下层风速减弱较为明显,减弱了GRAPES区域模式对台风强度预报偏强的现象,对台风强度长时间预报改善更为明显。不同标准c Ri对重力波拖曳力的计算较为敏感,当c Ri取1.0时,动能迅速的在低层被频散,能量无法有效地上传;c Ri取0.25时,大部分的能量在中高层被频散。总的来说,c Ri取0.75时对台风路径和强度预报改进更为显著,其结果可为业务预报提供指导意义。展开更多
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Key Project of the South China Regional Meteorological Center(GRMC2014M05)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406003 and GYHY201206010)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41075083 and 41075040)Science and Technology Project of Guangdong Province(2011A032100006 and 2012A061400012)
文摘To improve the wind and precipitation forecasts over South China, a modified orographic drag parameterization（OP） scheme that considers both the gravity wave drag（GWD） and the mountain blocking drag（MBD） effects was implemented in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Tropical Mesoscale Model（GRAPES-TMM）. Simulations were performed over one month starting from 1200 UTC19 June 2013. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the NCEP global forecast system output. The simulation results were compared among a control（CTL） experiment without the OP scheme, a GWDO experiment with the OP scheme that considers only the GWD effect, and an MBD experiment with the modified OP scheme（including both GWD and MBD）. The simulation with the modified OP scheme successfully captured the main features of precipitation, including its distribution and intensity,and improved the wind circulation forecast in the lower troposphere. The modified OP scheme appears to improve the wind forecast by accelerating the ascending air motion and reinforcing the convergence in the rainfall area. Overall, the modified OP scheme exerts positive impacts on the forecast of large-scale atmospheric fields in South China.
文摘本文在GRAPES_TMM(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model)——中国南海台风模式版(面向南海和东南亚)中发展和引进了KA95(Kim and Arakawa,1995)地形重力波拖曳参数化方案(GWDO),并对2012年主要的9个登陆台风进行了试验对比研究,考察了不同标准Richardson数(c Ri)的GWDO试验对台风路径和强度预报的影响。结果表明,在引入地形重力波拖曳参数化过程后,模式对台风登陆时路径和强度的预报能力均要有提高,对台风预报时长越长,GWDO的影响也更为显著。对双台风"SAOLA"和"DAMREY"试验结果表明,GWDO对台风外围距台风中心150 km的对流层中下层风速减弱较为明显,减弱了GRAPES区域模式对台风强度预报偏强的现象,对台风强度长时间预报改善更为明显。不同标准c Ri对重力波拖曳力的计算较为敏感,当c Ri取1.0时,动能迅速的在低层被频散,能量无法有效地上传;c Ri取0.25时,大部分的能量在中高层被频散。总的来说,c Ri取0.75时对台风路径和强度预报改进更为显著,其结果可为业务预报提供指导意义。
