The goal of achieving carbon neutrality in the next 30-40 years is approaching worldwide consensus and requires coordinated efforts to combat the increasing threat of climate change.Two main sets of actions have been ...The goal of achieving carbon neutrality in the next 30-40 years is approaching worldwide consensus and requires coordinated efforts to combat the increasing threat of climate change.Two main sets of actions have been proposed to address this grand goal.One is to reduce anthropogenic CO2emissions to the atmosphere,and the other is to increase carbon sinks or negative emissions,i.e.,removing CO2from the atmosphere.Here we advocate eco-engineering approaches for ocean negative carbon emission(ONCE),aiming to enhance carbon sinks in the marine environment.An international program is being established to promote coordinated efforts in developing ONCE-relevant strategies and methodologies,taking into consideration ecological/biogeochemical processes and mechanisms related to different forms of carbon(inorganic/organic,biotic/abiotic,particulate/dissolved) for sequestration.We focus on marine ecosystem-based approaches and pay special attention to mechanisms that require transformative research,including those elucidating interactions between the biological pump(BP),the microbial carbon pump(MCP),and microbially induced carbonate precipitation(MICP).Eutrophic estuaries,hypoxic and anoxic waters,coral reef ecosystems,as well as aquaculture areas are particularly considered in the context of efforts to increase their capacity as carbon sinks.ONCE approaches are thus expected to be beneficial for both carbon sequestration and alleviation of environmental stresses.展开更多
基于2007~2012年TRMM卫星上搭载的降水雷达提供的雷达反射率因子、降水率、降水类型等产品,结合ECMWF提供的再分析数据资料,分析了全球热带海洋地区平均降水率、400 h Pa垂直速度、850 h Pa相对湿度和下对流层稳定度的时空分布特征.根据...基于2007~2012年TRMM卫星上搭载的降水雷达提供的雷达反射率因子、降水率、降水类型等产品,结合ECMWF提供的再分析数据资料,分析了全球热带海洋地区平均降水率、400 h Pa垂直速度、850 h Pa相对湿度和下对流层稳定度的时空分布特征.根据400 h Pa垂直速度的季节差异确定了4个子研究区及相应对比季节,给出了对比季节内浅对流单体、层云、对流云3种降水系统降水量、降水面积、降水强度以及垂直结构上的差异.结果表明:(1)热带海洋地区平均降水率与400 h Pa上升速度在时空分布上存在一个显著的正相关,即400 h Pa上升速度越强的地区平均降水率越大;(2)4个子研究区内层云降水对区域累积降水面积贡献率最大(年均值均超过50%),对流云降水次之(约30%),而对流云降水对区域累积降水量贡献率最大(约65%),层云降水次之(约25%);(3)400 h Pa上升速度较强时,4个子研究区中3类降水系统的累积降水面积、累积降水量都有所增加,但降水强度以及降水系统垂直结构的变化存在差异,其中对流云降水强度一致增大且其垂直结构上的发展更旺盛;(4)对流云降水系统的雨顶高度、雷达反射率重心以及30 d BZ回波顶高随着400 h Pa上升速度的增强以及850 h Pa相对湿度的增加而迅速抬升,同时随着下对流层稳定度的降低有所抬升,但变化率较小.说明影响对流降水系统垂直结构的主要气象条件是400 h Pa上升速度和850 h Pa相对湿度.展开更多
The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM) is a newly developed global climate model that will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. Based on historical s...The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM) is a newly developed global climate model that will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. Based on historical simulations(1900-2013), we evaluate the model performance in simulating the observed characteristics of the Arctic climate system, which includes air temperature, precipitation, the Arctic Oscillation(AO), ocean temperature/salinity,the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC), snow cover, and sea ice. The model-data comparisons indicate that the CAMS-CSM reproduces spatial patterns of climatological mean air temperature over the Arctic(60°-90°N) and a rapid warming trend from 1979 to 2013. However, the warming trend is overestimated south of the Arctic Circle, implying a subdued Arctic amplification. The distribution of climatological precipitation in the Arctic is broadly captured in the model, whereas it shows limited skills in depicting the overall increasing trend. The AO can be reproduced by the CAMS-CSM in terms of reasonable patterns and variability. Regarding the ocean simulation, the model underestimates the AMOC and zonally averaged ocean temperatures and salinity above a depth of 500 m, and it fails to reproduce the observed increasing trend in the upper ocean heat content in the Arctic. The largescale distribution of the snow cover extent(SCE) in the Northern Hemisphere and the overall decreasing trend in the spring SCE are captured by the CAMS-CSM, while the biased magnitudes exist. Due to the underestimation of the AMOC and the poor quantification of air–sea interaction, the CAMS-CSM overestimates regional sea ice and underestimates the observed decreasing trend in Arctic sea–ice area in September. Overall, the CAMS-CSM reproduces a climatological distribution of the Arctic climate system and general trends from 1979 to 2013 compared with the observations, but it shows limited skills in modeling local trends and interannual variability.展开更多
针对LASG/IAP发展的大气环流模式GAMIL(Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG)的两个版本GAMIL2(G2)和GAMIL3(G3),评估了其对热带降水气候态以及对流垂直结构的模拟能力,在此基础上探究了新版本模式降水模拟改进的原因以及热带对...针对LASG/IAP发展的大气环流模式GAMIL(Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG)的两个版本GAMIL2(G2)和GAMIL3(G3),评估了其对热带降水气候态以及对流垂直结构的模拟能力,在此基础上探究了新版本模式降水模拟改进的原因以及热带对流垂直结构与降水模拟偏差的关系。两个版本的GAMIL模式都较好地捕捉到了热带降水的主要特征,且G3的模拟结果整体优于G2。新版本的主要改进在于显著减小了热带西北太平洋正降水偏差。水汽收支诊断显示,模式降水偏差主要来源于蒸发项和水汽垂直平流动力项,而后者的偏差则来自于对流强度和对流垂直结构的共同作用。对流垂直结构偏差主要存在于赤道印度洋与赤道大西洋区域,表现为大气低层辐合分量偏小,对流卷出层高度偏高;在热带西北太平洋与赤道东太平洋区域,模式较好地还原了典型的“头重型”和“脚重型”对流垂直结构,但依然存在有整体性的对流偏深。湿静力能(MSE)收支显示,热带西北太平洋区域过量的净能量通量是模式垂直运动偏差的主要来源。而对流垂直结构偏深造成的总湿稳定度(Gross Moist Stability,简称GMS)偏大,在一定程度上抵消了模式中的净能量通量偏差,抑制了模拟的对流强度。诊断结果显示,G3中热带西北太平洋区域的降水改善主要源于对流强度正偏差的减小。G3中对流阈值和层云阈值的下调,使得对流发生频率增加,从而抑制了过大的对流强度。热带对流垂直结构与降水偏差有着紧密且多样的联系,在未来模式发展中应当予以重视。展开更多
Observational and reanalysis data are used to investigate the different relationships between boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） in the Indian and Pacific oceans and summer precipitation in China. Partial c...Observational and reanalysis data are used to investigate the different relationships between boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） in the Indian and Pacific oceans and summer precipitation in China. Partial correlation analysis reveals that the effects of spring Indian Ocean SST （IO SST） and Pacific SST （PSST） anomalies on summer precipitation in China are qualitatively opposite. When IO SST anomalies are considered independently of PSST anomalies, precipitation decreases south of the Yangtze River, in most areas of Inner Mongolia, and in some parts of Liaoning Province, and increases in the Yangtze River valley, parts of southwestern and northern China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang Province. This results in a negative-positive-negative-positive pattern of precipitation anomalies in China from south to north. When PSST anomalies （particularly those in the Nin o3.4 region） are considered independently of IO SST anomalies, the pattern of precipitation anomalies in China is positive-negative-positive-negative from south to north. The genesis of summer precipitation anomalies in China is also examined when El Nin o-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals are removed from the ocean and atmosphere. An anticyclonic low-level wind anomaly forms in the South China Sea-Northwest Pacific area when the IO SST anomaly （SSTA） is warm and the Northwest Pacific SSTA is cold. This anticyclonic anomaly substantially influences summer precipitation in China. Anomalous warming of tropical IO SST induces positive geopotential height anomalies in the subtropics and an east-west dipole pattern in midlatitudes over Asia. These anomalies also affect summer precipitation in China.展开更多
Using data from Argo and simple ocean data assimilation (SODA), the role of the barrier layer (BL) in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS: 60°E-75°E, 0°-10°N) is investigated during the development ...Using data from Argo and simple ocean data assimilation (SODA), the role of the barrier layer (BL) in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS: 60°E-75°E, 0°-10°N) is investigated during the development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events from 1960 to 2008. It is found that warmer sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern Indian Ocean appears in June in the SEAS. This warm SST accompanying anomalous southeastern wind persists for six months and a thicker BL and a corresponding thinner mixed layer in the SEAS contribute to the SST warming during the IOD formation period. The excessive precipitation during this period helps to form a thicker BL and a thinner mixed layer, resulting in a higher SST in the SEAS. Warm SST in the SEAS and cold SST to the southeast of the SEAS intensify the southeasterly anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, which transports more moisture to the SEAS, and then induces more precipitation there. The ocean-atmosphere interaction process among wind, precipitation, BL and SST is very important for the anomalous warming in the SEAS during the development of positive IOD events.展开更多
Tropical cyclones(TCs)over the North Indian Ocean(NIO)are closely related to Asian summer monsoon activities and have a great impact on the precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau,southwestern China,and even the middle a...Tropical cyclones(TCs)over the North Indian Ocean(NIO)are closely related to Asian summer monsoon activities and have a great impact on the precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau,southwestern China,and even the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.In this paper,the research progress on the impacting mechanisms of NIO TCs on the weather in China and associated forecasting techniques is synthesized and reviewed,including characteristics of the NIO TC activity,its variability under climate change,related precipitation mechanism,and associated forecasting techniques.On this basis,the limitations and deficiencies in previous research on the physical mechanisms and forecasting techniques of NIO TCs affecting the weather in China are elucidated and the directions for future investigations are discussed.展开更多
In the past decades, with the increasing frequency of extreme weather and climate events, the world has suffered huge losses. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and China regional precipitation data provided by China ...In the past decades, with the increasing frequency of extreme weather and climate events, the world has suffered huge losses. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and China regional precipitation data provided by China Meteorological Administration, the extreme precipitation events in eastern China are defined by relative threshold method, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of summer extreme precipitation in eastern China from 1961 to 2016 are analyzed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and the reverse distribution of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and south China by Indian Ocean warm pool is revealed influence. The results show that the total amount and frequency of extreme precipitation in summer are concentrated in the Yangtze River Basin and south China. EOF1 decomposition of extreme precipitation reflects the interannual oscillation characteristics of reverse spatial distribution in the Yangtze River Basin and south China. The time series corresponding to EOF1 has significant interannual characteristics. The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern is a circulation system that significantly affects the spatial-temporal pattern of extreme precipitation in southern China. When the PJ pattern is in the positive phase, the anticyclone controls the south China region, and restrains the convective activity, which results in the decrease of extreme precipitation. The anomalous southwest wind to the south of 30<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">°</span></span>N and the anomalous northerly wind to the north of 30<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">°</span></span>N converge in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Combining with the sufficient water vapor carried by the anomalous southwest airflow at the edge of anticyclo展开更多
Air-sea interaction usually affects the distribution of precipitation during typhoon period, but whether typhoon precipitation distribution is affected by ocean eddies is still unclear. In this study, based on a multi...Air-sea interaction usually affects the distribution of precipitation during typhoon period, but whether typhoon precipitation distribution is affected by ocean eddies is still unclear. In this study, based on a multi-source satellite database, reanalysis data and in-situ data were used to study the precipitation characteristics of Typhoon Lekima (2019) as well as its physical causes. The results showed that the precipitation of Lekima presents an asymmetric structure, exhibiting heavier precipitation on the left side of the typhoon path before 7 August, and with the typhoon strengthened, precipitation was evenly distributed around the typhoon center. The typhoon cloud system, characteristics of the typhoon, and ocean factors could be responsible for the asymmetric structure of precipitation during the typhoon period. The change in the typhoon cloud system during the typhoon influenced the distribution of precipitation. And there have been some oceanic processes that influenced the distribution of precipitation. Anticyclonic eddies and thick mixing level depths (MLDs) play important roles in typhoon precipitation. The anticyclonic eddies with thick MLD exist to reduce the mixing of the upper ocean to maintain the SST. Therefore, the SST and air-sea exchange can be sustained to influence typhoon precipitation. This study provides a new understanding of the impact of ocean processes on typhoon precipitation distribution.展开更多
Using the monthly summer (June to August) precipitation data over China from 1979 to 1998,and the SST data in Indian Ocean of the overlapping periods,we have analyzed the spatial patterns as well as their temporal evo...Using the monthly summer (June to August) precipitation data over China from 1979 to 1998,and the SST data in Indian Ocean of the overlapping periods,we have analyzed the spatial patterns as well as their temporal evolution of the summer precipitation,along with the relationships between the precipitation over China and the SST in Indian Ocean,with the EOF and SVD methods respectively.The important results are:several canonical anomalous summer precipitation patterns have been identified.The summer SST in Indian Ocean is positively correlated with the simultaneous precipitation in the Yangtze River and Huai River Basin,while negatively with that in other parts of China.展开更多
The work is a general survey using SSTA data of the Indian Ocean and of precipitation at 160Chinese weather stations over 1951～1997 (47 years). It reveals that the dipole oscillation of SST, especially the dipole ind...The work is a general survey using SSTA data of the Indian Ocean and of precipitation at 160Chinese weather stations over 1951～1997 (47 years). It reveals that the dipole oscillation of SST, especially the dipole index of March～May, in the eastern and western parts of the ocean correlates well with the precipitation during the June～August raining season in China. As shown in analysis of 500-hPa Northern Hemisphere geopotential height height by NCEP for 1958～1995, the Indian Ocean dipole index (IODI) is closely related with geopotential height anomalies in the middle- and higher- latitudes in the Eurasian region. As a negative phase year of IODI corresponds to significant Pacific-Japan (P J) wavetrain, it is highly likely that the SST for the dipole may affect the precipitation in China through the wavetrain. Additionally, correlation analysis of links between SST dipole index of the Indian Ocean region and air temperature in China also shows good correlation between the former and wintertime temperature in southern China.展开更多
The relationship between the variability of the Eastern India Ocean Warm Pool (EIWP) and the spring precipitation in China is studied in the paper based on an analysis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Sea ...The relationship between the variability of the Eastern India Ocean Warm Pool (EIWP) and the spring precipitation in China is studied in the paper based on an analysis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data, the reanalysis data of monthly grid wind field at 925 hPa with a resolution of 2.5° latitude and longitude from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR),and the monthly mean rainfall data from 160 observational stations in China. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China. The area, volume and intensity indices of the EIWP are negatively correlated with the spring precipitation in southwestern China, while they are positively correlated with the spring precipitation in the rest of China, especially in the northeast. For this correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China, it is found that the correlative relationship is mainly connected with the variations of the moisture transport by the warm air flow, which is under the influence of the EIWP variability, into the inland of China in spring. Two causative factors may influence this transport. One is the variation of the moisture transport carried by the warm air flow from the Arabian Sea influenced by the EIWP variability. The other is the variation of the equator-crossing flow (70°-90°E) influenced by the EIWP anomaly in the previous winter which exerts its effect on the moist warm air transported from the Southern Hemisphere. The position and intensity of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH)variability caused by EIWP variation also influence the spring precipitation in China.展开更多
The present study investigated the long-term change in the interannual relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)climate during 1979-2019 and found that their linkage e...The present study investigated the long-term change in the interannual relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)climate during 1979-2019 and found that their linkage experienced a decadal change in 2001/2002.The 19-yr sliding correlation coefficient between the January-February-March(JFM)AO index and central TIO(0-10°S,65°-80°E)precipitation was significant,with values of approximately 0.50-0.75 during 1979-2001,but abruptly decreased to 0.35 in 2002 and 0.10 in 2010.Meanwhile,the spatial patterns of the AO-related atmospheric circulation anomalies also displayed different features before and after 2001.During 2002-2019,the anomalous anticyclone in the middle troposphere over the Arabian Sea moved northwestward and strengthened,and the JFM AO was more closely correlated to the anticyclone,with correlation coefficient changed from-0.38 before 2001 to-0.63 after 2001;correspondingly,strong cross-equator air flows were observed over the western TIO(40°-50°E),but no significant anomalies of precipitation in the central TIO were observed.During 1979-2001,however,significant southward cross-equator air flows appeared over the central TIO(65°-75°E),which enhanced the intertropical convergence zone and upward air motions,leading to more precipitation in central TIO.An analysis shows that the AO may modulate the Arabian anticyclone through two Rossby wave paths in the upper troposphere:a midlatitude(50°-60°N)path during 1979-2001 from North Atlantic southeastward to the Middle East and the neighboring Arabian Sea;and a subtropical(20°-30°N)path during 2002-2019 from North Atlantic eastward to the Middle East and Arabian Sea.Large wave activity fluxes induced by AO were concentrated along the two paths before and after 2001,and the location of the cross-equator flows depends on the location of the anticyclone.Causes of the decadal changes in the AO-associated wave trains need further investigation.展开更多
以CMAP(Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)月平均降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的40年再分析资料集ERA40为观测基础,分析了当前政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的17个全球海气...以CMAP(Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)月平均降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的40年再分析资料集ERA40为观测基础,分析了当前政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的17个全球海气耦合模式对东亚季风区夏季降水和环流的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)模式基本上都能够模拟出降水由东亚东南部海洋至东亚西北部中国内陆减少的空间分布特征,部分模式能够模拟出降水的部分主要模态;(2)大部分模式基本上能够模拟出中国东部陆地降水的季节进退。但同时也存在相当的差异,这包括:(1)多数模式普遍存在模拟降水量偏少、降水变幅偏小的缺陷;(2)雨带的季节推进过程与观测存在一定偏差,尤其海洋上的季节进退过程模拟较差,有的模式甚至不能模拟出东亚季风区东部海洋上大致的季节进程。因此,模式对东亚季风区降水的模拟能力还是比较有限的,需要进一步改进。多模式集合的夏季环流场以偏弱为主,不利于降水的形成,这在中国东部大陆部分比较明显。另外,空气湿度模拟值偏低、从而造成水汽输送偏弱也是导致东亚季风区夏季降水模拟偏小的原因之一。展开更多
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42141003, 91851210, 41876119, 42188102, 91751207, and 91951207)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA06055800 and 2020YFA0607600)+9 种基金support by the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (20220558)the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2018R1A2B2006340)support by the German Academic Exchange service (Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst, Make Our Planet Great Again-German Research Initiative, 57429828)the German Federal Ministry of Education and Researchsupport by the joint National Natural Science Foundation of China-Israel Science Foundation (NSFC-ISF) Research Program (42161144006 and 3511/21, respectively)support by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (20-05-00381-a)the Russian Fundamental Programs of Pacific Oceanological Institute (01201363041 and 01201353055)supported by the following provincial and municipal authorities of China: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (K19313901) (Guangzhou)Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (SML2020SP004) (Zhuhai)Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Marine Archaea Geo-Omics, Southern University of Science and Technology (ZDSYS201802081843490)。
文摘The goal of achieving carbon neutrality in the next 30-40 years is approaching worldwide consensus and requires coordinated efforts to combat the increasing threat of climate change.Two main sets of actions have been proposed to address this grand goal.One is to reduce anthropogenic CO2emissions to the atmosphere,and the other is to increase carbon sinks or negative emissions,i.e.,removing CO2from the atmosphere.Here we advocate eco-engineering approaches for ocean negative carbon emission(ONCE),aiming to enhance carbon sinks in the marine environment.An international program is being established to promote coordinated efforts in developing ONCE-relevant strategies and methodologies,taking into consideration ecological/biogeochemical processes and mechanisms related to different forms of carbon(inorganic/organic,biotic/abiotic,particulate/dissolved) for sequestration.We focus on marine ecosystem-based approaches and pay special attention to mechanisms that require transformative research,including those elucidating interactions between the biological pump(BP),the microbial carbon pump(MCP),and microbially induced carbonate precipitation(MICP).Eutrophic estuaries,hypoxic and anoxic waters,coral reef ecosystems,as well as aquaculture areas are particularly considered in the context of efforts to increase their capacity as carbon sinks.ONCE approaches are thus expected to be beneficial for both carbon sequestration and alleviation of environmental stresses.
文摘基于2007~2012年TRMM卫星上搭载的降水雷达提供的雷达反射率因子、降水率、降水类型等产品,结合ECMWF提供的再分析数据资料,分析了全球热带海洋地区平均降水率、400 h Pa垂直速度、850 h Pa相对湿度和下对流层稳定度的时空分布特征.根据400 h Pa垂直速度的季节差异确定了4个子研究区及相应对比季节,给出了对比季节内浅对流单体、层云、对流云3种降水系统降水量、降水面积、降水强度以及垂直结构上的差异.结果表明:(1)热带海洋地区平均降水率与400 h Pa上升速度在时空分布上存在一个显著的正相关,即400 h Pa上升速度越强的地区平均降水率越大;(2)4个子研究区内层云降水对区域累积降水面积贡献率最大(年均值均超过50%),对流云降水次之(约30%),而对流云降水对区域累积降水量贡献率最大(约65%),层云降水次之(约25%);(3)400 h Pa上升速度较强时,4个子研究区中3类降水系统的累积降水面积、累积降水量都有所增加,但降水强度以及降水系统垂直结构的变化存在差异,其中对流云降水强度一致增大且其垂直结构上的发展更旺盛;(4)对流云降水系统的雨顶高度、雷达反射率重心以及30 d BZ回波顶高随着400 h Pa上升速度的增强以及850 h Pa相对湿度的增加而迅速抬升,同时随着下对流层稳定度的降低有所抬升,但变化率较小.说明影响对流降水系统垂直结构的主要气象条件是400 h Pa上升速度和850 h Pa相对湿度.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0602704)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41505068)
文摘The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM) is a newly developed global climate model that will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. Based on historical simulations(1900-2013), we evaluate the model performance in simulating the observed characteristics of the Arctic climate system, which includes air temperature, precipitation, the Arctic Oscillation(AO), ocean temperature/salinity,the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC), snow cover, and sea ice. The model-data comparisons indicate that the CAMS-CSM reproduces spatial patterns of climatological mean air temperature over the Arctic(60°-90°N) and a rapid warming trend from 1979 to 2013. However, the warming trend is overestimated south of the Arctic Circle, implying a subdued Arctic amplification. The distribution of climatological precipitation in the Arctic is broadly captured in the model, whereas it shows limited skills in depicting the overall increasing trend. The AO can be reproduced by the CAMS-CSM in terms of reasonable patterns and variability. Regarding the ocean simulation, the model underestimates the AMOC and zonally averaged ocean temperatures and salinity above a depth of 500 m, and it fails to reproduce the observed increasing trend in the upper ocean heat content in the Arctic. The largescale distribution of the snow cover extent(SCE) in the Northern Hemisphere and the overall decreasing trend in the spring SCE are captured by the CAMS-CSM, while the biased magnitudes exist. Due to the underestimation of the AMOC and the poor quantification of air–sea interaction, the CAMS-CSM overestimates regional sea ice and underestimates the observed decreasing trend in Arctic sea–ice area in September. Overall, the CAMS-CSM reproduces a climatological distribution of the Arctic climate system and general trends from 1979 to 2013 compared with the observations, but it shows limited skills in modeling local trends and interannual variability.
文摘针对LASG/IAP发展的大气环流模式GAMIL(Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG)的两个版本GAMIL2(G2)和GAMIL3(G3),评估了其对热带降水气候态以及对流垂直结构的模拟能力,在此基础上探究了新版本模式降水模拟改进的原因以及热带对流垂直结构与降水模拟偏差的关系。两个版本的GAMIL模式都较好地捕捉到了热带降水的主要特征,且G3的模拟结果整体优于G2。新版本的主要改进在于显著减小了热带西北太平洋正降水偏差。水汽收支诊断显示,模式降水偏差主要来源于蒸发项和水汽垂直平流动力项,而后者的偏差则来自于对流强度和对流垂直结构的共同作用。对流垂直结构偏差主要存在于赤道印度洋与赤道大西洋区域,表现为大气低层辐合分量偏小,对流卷出层高度偏高;在热带西北太平洋与赤道东太平洋区域,模式较好地还原了典型的“头重型”和“脚重型”对流垂直结构,但依然存在有整体性的对流偏深。湿静力能(MSE)收支显示,热带西北太平洋区域过量的净能量通量是模式垂直运动偏差的主要来源。而对流垂直结构偏深造成的总湿稳定度(Gross Moist Stability,简称GMS)偏大,在一定程度上抵消了模式中的净能量通量偏差,抑制了模拟的对流强度。诊断结果显示,G3中热带西北太平洋区域的降水改善主要源于对流强度正偏差的减小。G3中对流阈值和层云阈值的下调,使得对流发生频率增加,从而抑制了过大的对流强度。热带对流垂直结构与降水偏差有着紧密且多样的联系,在未来模式发展中应当予以重视。
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40875052, 40921003, and 41175082)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200906017 and GYHY200706005)
文摘Observational and reanalysis data are used to investigate the different relationships between boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） in the Indian and Pacific oceans and summer precipitation in China. Partial correlation analysis reveals that the effects of spring Indian Ocean SST （IO SST） and Pacific SST （PSST） anomalies on summer precipitation in China are qualitatively opposite. When IO SST anomalies are considered independently of PSST anomalies, precipitation decreases south of the Yangtze River, in most areas of Inner Mongolia, and in some parts of Liaoning Province, and increases in the Yangtze River valley, parts of southwestern and northern China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang Province. This results in a negative-positive-negative-positive pattern of precipitation anomalies in China from south to north. When PSST anomalies （particularly those in the Nin o3.4 region） are considered independently of IO SST anomalies, the pattern of precipitation anomalies in China is positive-negative-positive-negative from south to north. The genesis of summer precipitation anomalies in China is also examined when El Nin o-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals are removed from the ocean and atmosphere. An anticyclonic low-level wind anomaly forms in the South China Sea-Northwest Pacific area when the IO SST anomaly （SSTA） is warm and the Northwest Pacific SSTA is cold. This anticyclonic anomaly substantially influences summer precipitation in China. Anomalous warming of tropical IO SST induces positive geopotential height anomalies in the subtropics and an east-west dipole pattern in midlatitudes over Asia. These anomalies also affect summer precipitation in China.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB955602)Ministry of Science and Technology of China(National Key Program for Developing Basic Science 2010CB428904)+1 种基金the NSFC(41176006,40921004,41106010)the 111 Project of China(Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities No.B07036)
文摘Using data from Argo and simple ocean data assimilation (SODA), the role of the barrier layer (BL) in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS: 60°E-75°E, 0°-10°N) is investigated during the development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events from 1960 to 2008. It is found that warmer sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern Indian Ocean appears in June in the SEAS. This warm SST accompanying anomalous southeastern wind persists for six months and a thicker BL and a corresponding thinner mixed layer in the SEAS contribute to the SST warming during the IOD formation period. The excessive precipitation during this period helps to form a thicker BL and a thinner mixed layer, resulting in a higher SST in the SEAS. Warm SST in the SEAS and cold SST to the southeast of the SEAS intensify the southeasterly anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, which transports more moisture to the SEAS, and then induces more precipitation there. The ocean-atmosphere interaction process among wind, precipitation, BL and SST is very important for the anomalous warming in the SEAS during the development of positive IOD events.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930972 and 52078480)。
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs)over the North Indian Ocean(NIO)are closely related to Asian summer monsoon activities and have a great impact on the precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau,southwestern China,and even the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.In this paper,the research progress on the impacting mechanisms of NIO TCs on the weather in China and associated forecasting techniques is synthesized and reviewed,including characteristics of the NIO TC activity,its variability under climate change,related precipitation mechanism,and associated forecasting techniques.On this basis,the limitations and deficiencies in previous research on the physical mechanisms and forecasting techniques of NIO TCs affecting the weather in China are elucidated and the directions for future investigations are discussed.
文摘In the past decades, with the increasing frequency of extreme weather and climate events, the world has suffered huge losses. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and China regional precipitation data provided by China Meteorological Administration, the extreme precipitation events in eastern China are defined by relative threshold method, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of summer extreme precipitation in eastern China from 1961 to 2016 are analyzed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and the reverse distribution of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and south China by Indian Ocean warm pool is revealed influence. The results show that the total amount and frequency of extreme precipitation in summer are concentrated in the Yangtze River Basin and south China. EOF1 decomposition of extreme precipitation reflects the interannual oscillation characteristics of reverse spatial distribution in the Yangtze River Basin and south China. The time series corresponding to EOF1 has significant interannual characteristics. The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern is a circulation system that significantly affects the spatial-temporal pattern of extreme precipitation in southern China. When the PJ pattern is in the positive phase, the anticyclone controls the south China region, and restrains the convective activity, which results in the decrease of extreme precipitation. The anomalous southwest wind to the south of 30<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">°</span></span>N and the anomalous northerly wind to the north of 30<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">°</span></span>N converge in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Combining with the sufficient water vapor carried by the anomalous southwest airflow at the edge of anticyclo
文摘Air-sea interaction usually affects the distribution of precipitation during typhoon period, but whether typhoon precipitation distribution is affected by ocean eddies is still unclear. In this study, based on a multi-source satellite database, reanalysis data and in-situ data were used to study the precipitation characteristics of Typhoon Lekima (2019) as well as its physical causes. The results showed that the precipitation of Lekima presents an asymmetric structure, exhibiting heavier precipitation on the left side of the typhoon path before 7 August, and with the typhoon strengthened, precipitation was evenly distributed around the typhoon center. The typhoon cloud system, characteristics of the typhoon, and ocean factors could be responsible for the asymmetric structure of precipitation during the typhoon period. The change in the typhoon cloud system during the typhoon influenced the distribution of precipitation. And there have been some oceanic processes that influenced the distribution of precipitation. Anticyclonic eddies and thick mixing level depths (MLDs) play important roles in typhoon precipitation. The anticyclonic eddies with thick MLD exist to reduce the mixing of the upper ocean to maintain the SST. Therefore, the SST and air-sea exchange can be sustained to influence typhoon precipitation. This study provides a new understanding of the impact of ocean processes on typhoon precipitation distribution.
文摘Using the monthly summer (June to August) precipitation data over China from 1979 to 1998,and the SST data in Indian Ocean of the overlapping periods,we have analyzed the spatial patterns as well as their temporal evolution of the summer precipitation,along with the relationships between the precipitation over China and the SST in Indian Ocean,with the EOF and SVD methods respectively.The important results are:several canonical anomalous summer precipitation patterns have been identified.The summer SST in Indian Ocean is positively correlated with the simultaneous precipitation in the Yangtze River and Huai River Basin,while negatively with that in other parts of China.
基金Research on the Mechanism and Prediction of Major Climatic Calamities in China a national key program for developing basic science (G199804090303) Science Foundation of Yunnan (97D022G)
文摘The work is a general survey using SSTA data of the Indian Ocean and of precipitation at 160Chinese weather stations over 1951～1997 (47 years). It reveals that the dipole oscillation of SST, especially the dipole index of March～May, in the eastern and western parts of the ocean correlates well with the precipitation during the June～August raining season in China. As shown in analysis of 500-hPa Northern Hemisphere geopotential height height by NCEP for 1958～1995, the Indian Ocean dipole index (IODI) is closely related with geopotential height anomalies in the middle- and higher- latitudes in the Eurasian region. As a negative phase year of IODI corresponds to significant Pacific-Japan (P J) wavetrain, it is highly likely that the SST for the dipole may affect the precipitation in China through the wavetrain. Additionally, correlation analysis of links between SST dipole index of the Indian Ocean region and air temperature in China also shows good correlation between the former and wintertime temperature in southern China.
基金This research is supported Sciences Foundation of China by the National Natural(No.40305009).
文摘The relationship between the variability of the Eastern India Ocean Warm Pool (EIWP) and the spring precipitation in China is studied in the paper based on an analysis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data, the reanalysis data of monthly grid wind field at 925 hPa with a resolution of 2.5° latitude and longitude from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR),and the monthly mean rainfall data from 160 observational stations in China. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China. The area, volume and intensity indices of the EIWP are negatively correlated with the spring precipitation in southwestern China, while they are positively correlated with the spring precipitation in the rest of China, especially in the northeast. For this correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China, it is found that the correlative relationship is mainly connected with the variations of the moisture transport by the warm air flow, which is under the influence of the EIWP variability, into the inland of China in spring. Two causative factors may influence this transport. One is the variation of the moisture transport carried by the warm air flow from the Arabian Sea influenced by the EIWP variability. The other is the variation of the equator-crossing flow (70°-90°E) influenced by the EIWP anomaly in the previous winter which exerts its effect on the moist warm air transported from the Southern Hemisphere. The position and intensity of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH)variability caused by EIWP variation also influence the spring precipitation in China.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41775068 and 41375071)。
文摘The present study investigated the long-term change in the interannual relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)climate during 1979-2019 and found that their linkage experienced a decadal change in 2001/2002.The 19-yr sliding correlation coefficient between the January-February-March(JFM)AO index and central TIO(0-10°S,65°-80°E)precipitation was significant,with values of approximately 0.50-0.75 during 1979-2001,but abruptly decreased to 0.35 in 2002 and 0.10 in 2010.Meanwhile,the spatial patterns of the AO-related atmospheric circulation anomalies also displayed different features before and after 2001.During 2002-2019,the anomalous anticyclone in the middle troposphere over the Arabian Sea moved northwestward and strengthened,and the JFM AO was more closely correlated to the anticyclone,with correlation coefficient changed from-0.38 before 2001 to-0.63 after 2001;correspondingly,strong cross-equator air flows were observed over the western TIO(40°-50°E),but no significant anomalies of precipitation in the central TIO were observed.During 1979-2001,however,significant southward cross-equator air flows appeared over the central TIO(65°-75°E),which enhanced the intertropical convergence zone and upward air motions,leading to more precipitation in central TIO.An analysis shows that the AO may modulate the Arabian anticyclone through two Rossby wave paths in the upper troposphere:a midlatitude(50°-60°N)path during 1979-2001 from North Atlantic southeastward to the Middle East and the neighboring Arabian Sea;and a subtropical(20°-30°N)path during 2002-2019 from North Atlantic eastward to the Middle East and Arabian Sea.Large wave activity fluxes induced by AO were concentrated along the two paths before and after 2001,and the location of the cross-equator flows depends on the location of the anticyclone.Causes of the decadal changes in the AO-associated wave trains need further investigation.
文摘以CMAP(Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)月平均降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的40年再分析资料集ERA40为观测基础,分析了当前政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的17个全球海气耦合模式对东亚季风区夏季降水和环流的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)模式基本上都能够模拟出降水由东亚东南部海洋至东亚西北部中国内陆减少的空间分布特征,部分模式能够模拟出降水的部分主要模态;(2)大部分模式基本上能够模拟出中国东部陆地降水的季节进退。但同时也存在相当的差异,这包括:(1)多数模式普遍存在模拟降水量偏少、降水变幅偏小的缺陷;(2)雨带的季节推进过程与观测存在一定偏差,尤其海洋上的季节进退过程模拟较差,有的模式甚至不能模拟出东亚季风区东部海洋上大致的季节进程。因此,模式对东亚季风区降水的模拟能力还是比较有限的,需要进一步改进。多模式集合的夏季环流场以偏弱为主,不利于降水的形成,这在中国东部大陆部分比较明显。另外,空气湿度模拟值偏低、从而造成水汽输送偏弱也是导致东亚季风区夏季降水模拟偏小的原因之一。
