In order to determine the threshold and potential distribution of climatic conditions for perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China, the niche model is used to simulate the main climatic ...In order to determine the threshold and potential distribution of climatic conditions for perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China, the niche model is used to simulate the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of perennial cultivated grasses, and to predict the current and future climate change prospects. The results show that: 1) Wet index, accumulated temperature, isothermal, and annual average temperature range are the four major climatic factors affecting the distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest Sichuan Plateau. 2) Model training and prediction data can be achieved well under the appropriate range of major climatic factors. 3) Under the background of climate warming, from now to 2080, the potential distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China will increase. The study aims to provide scientific decision-making basis for maintaining grassland ecosystem stability and promoting desertification management and even industrial restructuring of agriculture and animal husbandry.展开更多
文摘本文以川西北高原主要栽种的多年生禾本科属垂穗披碱草(Elymus nutans)为研究对象,利用生态位模型(MaxEnt)模拟分析影响多年生垂穗披碱草种植的主要气候因子,预测当前及未来气候变化情景下的适生区分布格局。结果显示:湿润指数、≥0℃积温、等温性、气温年较差是影响川西北高原多年生垂穗披碱草分布的4个主要气候因子,其适宜值范围分别为>48.60,1118.20℃·d^2350.50℃·d,>36.10%,31.40℃~36.20℃。构建模型训练数据的受试者工作曲线下面积(Area under curve,AUC)值均大于0.85,测试数据AUC值均大于0.90,达到良好和极好的水平。气候变暖背景下,从当前到未来(21世纪80年代),川西北高原多年生垂穗披碱草的潜在分布气候适宜区面积将增加52.70%,海拔将升高252 m。本研究可为维持草地生态系统稳定、推动沙化治理乃至农牧业产业结构调整提供科学决策依据。
文摘In order to determine the threshold and potential distribution of climatic conditions for perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China, the niche model is used to simulate the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of perennial cultivated grasses, and to predict the current and future climate change prospects. The results show that: 1) Wet index, accumulated temperature, isothermal, and annual average temperature range are the four major climatic factors affecting the distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest Sichuan Plateau. 2) Model training and prediction data can be achieved well under the appropriate range of major climatic factors. 3) Under the background of climate warming, from now to 2080, the potential distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China will increase. The study aims to provide scientific decision-making basis for maintaining grassland ecosystem stability and promoting desertification management and even industrial restructuring of agriculture and animal husbandry.
