The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource devel...The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource development, and hydropower system reliability in the region rely heavily on monsoon rainfall. Monthly rainfall data from three stations (East Nimar, Barwani, and West Nimar) were analyzed. Initially, the pre-whitening method was applied to eliminate serial correlation effects from the rainfall data series. Subsequently, statistical trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were assessed using both parametric (student-t test) and non-parametric tests [Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM)]. The magnitude of the rainfall trend was determined using Theil-Sen’s slope estimator. Spatial analysis of the Mann-Kendall test on an annual basis revealed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend for Barwani and East Nimar and an increasing trend for West Nimar. On a seasonal basis, the monsoon season contributes a significant percentage (88.33%) to the total annual rainfall. The CUSUM test results indicated a shift change detection in annual rainfall data for Barwani in 1997, while shifts were observed in West and East Nimar stations in 1929. These findings offer valuable insights into regional rainfall behavior, aiding in the planning and management of water resources and ecological systems.展开更多
State is in the South East geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The major occupation of the people in this region is trading and farming, which depends on rainfall and other climatic factors. This paper presents statistical ...State is in the South East geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The major occupation of the people in this region is trading and farming, which depends on rainfall and other climatic factors. This paper presents statistical and trend analyses of the rainfall in some selected stations in Anambra State, which includes Ifite-Ogwari, Awka, Onitsha and Ihiala. Rainfall data for a period of 1971-2010 were obtained from Climate Research Unit (CRU). The existence of trend and statistical analyses was conducted on monthly total rainfalls using non-parametric techniques. The study revealed that overall averages of yearly and monthly total rainfall were 5798.78 mm and 1739.62 mm in Ifite-Ogwari, 6051.8 mm and 1815 mm in Awka, 6288.87 mm and 1886.88 mm in Onitsha, and 6637.19 mm and 1997.1 mm in Ihiala. Yearly total rainfall has Mann-Whitney of 26 and 41 between 1971 and 1990, 1991 and 2010 respectively in Ifite-Ogwari, 32 and 42 between 1971 and 1990, 1991 and 2010 respectively in Awka, 42 and 39 between 1971 and 1990, 1991 and 2010 respectively in Onitsha, and 33 and 45 between 1971 and 1990, 1991 and 2010 respectively in Ihiala. These parameters show that there are significant trends in the rainfall in term of yearly total for the period. Sen’s estimator revealed that there were significant downward trends for yearly total (-0.775 mm/year) and (-0.094 mm/year) within the period of 1971-1990 and 1991-2010 in Ifite-Ogwari. There was an upward trend of yearly total (1.841 mm/year) between 1971 and1990, whereas there was a downward trend of yearly total (-0.211) between 1991 and 2010 in Awka. It was concluded that there was a significant downward trend in the yearly total and mean rainfalls in Ifite-Ogwari, Awka, Onitsha and Ihiala in the last four decades (40 years), which could be attributed to climate change.展开更多
文摘The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource development, and hydropower system reliability in the region rely heavily on monsoon rainfall. Monthly rainfall data from three stations (East Nimar, Barwani, and West Nimar) were analyzed. Initially, the pre-whitening method was applied to eliminate serial correlation effects from the rainfall data series. Subsequently, statistical trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were assessed using both parametric (student-t test) and non-parametric tests [Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM)]. The magnitude of the rainfall trend was determined using Theil-Sen’s slope estimator. Spatial analysis of the Mann-Kendall test on an annual basis revealed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend for Barwani and East Nimar and an increasing trend for West Nimar. On a seasonal basis, the monsoon season contributes a significant percentage (88.33%) to the total annual rainfall. The CUSUM test results indicated a shift change detection in annual rainfall data for Barwani in 1997, while shifts were observed in West and East Nimar stations in 1929. These findings offer valuable insights into regional rainfall behavior, aiding in the planning and management of water resources and ecological systems.
文摘State is in the South East geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The major occupation of the people in this region is trading and farming, which depends on rainfall and other climatic factors. This paper presents statistical and trend analyses of the rainfall in some selected stations in Anambra State, which includes Ifite-Ogwari, Awka, Onitsha and Ihiala. Rainfall data for a period of 1971-2010 were obtained from Climate Research Unit (CRU). The existence of trend and statistical analyses was conducted on monthly total rainfalls using non-parametric techniques. The study revealed that overall averages of yearly and monthly total rainfall were 5798.78 mm and 1739.62 mm in Ifite-Ogwari, 6051.8 mm and 1815 mm in Awka, 6288.87 mm and 1886.88 mm in Onitsha, and 6637.19 mm and 1997.1 mm in Ihiala. Yearly total rainfall has Mann-Whitney of 26 and 41 between 1971 and 1990, 1991 and 2010 respectively in Ifite-Ogwari, 32 and 42 between 1971 and 1990, 1991 and 2010 respectively in Awka, 42 and 39 between 1971 and 1990, 1991 and 2010 respectively in Onitsha, and 33 and 45 between 1971 and 1990, 1991 and 2010 respectively in Ihiala. These parameters show that there are significant trends in the rainfall in term of yearly total for the period. Sen’s estimator revealed that there were significant downward trends for yearly total (-0.775 mm/year) and (-0.094 mm/year) within the period of 1971-1990 and 1991-2010 in Ifite-Ogwari. There was an upward trend of yearly total (1.841 mm/year) between 1971 and1990, whereas there was a downward trend of yearly total (-0.211) between 1991 and 2010 in Awka. It was concluded that there was a significant downward trend in the yearly total and mean rainfalls in Ifite-Ogwari, Awka, Onitsha and Ihiala in the last four decades (40 years), which could be attributed to climate change.
