A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation （THC） in atmosphere-ocean for global climate is considered. By using the generalized variational iteration method, the approximate solution of a simplifie...A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation （THC） in atmosphere-ocean for global climate is considered. By using the generalized variational iteration method, the approximate solution of a simplified nonlinear model is studied. The generalized variational iteration method is an analytic method, and the obtained analytic solution can be operated sequentially. The authors also diversify qualitative and quantitative behaviors for corresponding physical quantities.展开更多
The gridded （1/3°＊1/3°） altimetry data from October 1992 through December 2004 were analyzed to study the seasonal and interannual variabilities of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） ...The gridded （1/3°＊1/3°） altimetry data from October 1992 through December 2004 were analyzed to study the seasonal and interannual variabilities of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） at the surface in the western North Pacific Ocean. Calculations show that on annual average the bifurcation occurs at about 13.4°N at the surface. The geostrophic flow derived from Sea Surface Height （SSH） data shows that the southernmost latitude of the NEC bifurcation at the surface is about 12.9°N in June and the northernmost latitude is about 14.1°N in December. Correlation analyses between the bifurcation latitude and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOl） suggest that the bifurcation latitude is highly correlated with the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events. During the E1 Nino years the bifurcation of the NEC takes place at higher latitudes and vice versa.展开更多
The EI Nimo and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea-air interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model i...The EI Nimo and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea-air interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model is proposed. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model and by employing the method of homotopic mapping, the approximate solution of equations for the corresponding ENSO model is studied. It is proved from the results that homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the sea-air oscillator for the ENSO model.展开更多
A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation (THC) in atmosphere-ocean for global cli-mate is considered. By using the multi-scales method, the asymptotic solution of a simplified weakly nonlinear mode...A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation (THC) in atmosphere-ocean for global cli-mate is considered. By using the multi-scales method, the asymptotic solution of a simplified weakly nonlinear model is discussed. Firstly, by introducing first scale, the zeroth order approximate solution of the model is obtained. Sec-ondly, by using the multi-scales, the first order approximate equation of the model is found. Finally, second order ap-proximate equation is formed to eliminate the secular terms, and a uniformly valid asymptotic expansion of solution is decided. The multi-scales solving method is an analytic method which can be used to analyze operation sequentially. And then we can also study the diversified qualitative and quantitative behaviors for corresponding physical quantities. This paper aims at providing a valid method for solving a box model of the nonlinear equation.展开更多
A class of coupled system to oscillate of the E1 Nino/La Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions and asymptotic behavior of the solution for an EN...A class of coupled system to oscillate of the E1 Nino/La Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions and asymptotic behavior of the solution for an ENSO model are obtained.展开更多
Most ocean-atmosphere coupled models have difficulty in predicting the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） when starting from the boreal spring season. However, the cause of this spring predictability barrier （SPB...Most ocean-atmosphere coupled models have difficulty in predicting the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） when starting from the boreal spring season. However, the cause of this spring predictability barrier （SPB） phenomenon remains elusive. We investigated the spatial characteristics of optimal initial errors that cause a significant SPB for E1 Nifio events by using the monthly mean data of the pre-industrial （PI） control runs from several models in CMIP5 experiments. The results indicated that the SPB-related optimal initial errors often present an SST pattern with positive errors in the central-eastern equatorial Pa- cific, and a subsurface temperature pattern with positive errors in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and nega- tive errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The SPB-related optimal initial errors exhibit a typical La Ni- fia-like evolving mode, ultimately causing a large but negative prediction error of the Nifio-3.4 SST anomalies for El Nifio events. The negative prediction errors were found to originate from the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific and then grow to be large in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is therefore reasonable to suggest that the E1 Nifio predictions may be most sensitive to the initial errors of temperature in the subsurface layers of the western equatorial Pacific and the Nifio-3.4 region, thus possibly representing sensitive areas for adaptive observation. That is, if additional observations were to be preferentially deployed in these two regions, it might be possible to avoid large prediction errors for E1 Nifio and generate a better forecast than one based on additional observations targeted elsewhere. Moreover, we also confirmed that the SPB-related optimal initial errors bear a strong resemblance to the optimal precursory disturbance for E1 Nifio and La Nifia events. This indicated that im- provement of the observation network by additional observations in the identified sensitive areas would also be 展开更多
The EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, a class of coupled system of the ENSO mechanism is consider...The EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, a class of coupled system of the ENSO mechanism is considered. Based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the asymptotic solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the approximate method. It is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.展开更多
The EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for ...The EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is created. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the method of homotopic mapping. It is proved from the results that the homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.展开更多
Impacts of EI Nino Modoki （ENM）, La Nina Modoki （LNM）, canonical EI Nifio （CEN） and canonical La Nifia （CLN） on tropical cyclones （TCs） that made landfall over China's Mainland during 1951-2011 are analy...Impacts of EI Nino Modoki （ENM）, La Nina Modoki （LNM）, canonical EI Nifio （CEN） and canonical La Nifia （CLN） on tropical cyclones （TCs） that made landfall over China's Mainland during 1951-2011 are analysed using best-track data from China, the USA and Japan. Relative to cold phase years （LNM and CLN）, landfalling TCs in warm years （ENM and CEN） have a farther east genesis location, as well as longer track lengths and durations, both in total and before landfall. ENM demonstrates the highest landfall frequency, most northerly mean landfall position, and shortest after-landfall sustainability （track length and duration）, which indicate a more frequent and extensive coverage of China's Mainland by TCs, but with shorter after-landfall influence. CEN has low landfall frequency and the most southerly mean landfall location. LNM has the most westerly genesis location, being significantly farther west than the 1951-2011 average and leading to short mean track lengths and durations both in total or before landfall, all of which are significantly shorter than the 1951-2011 average. Variations in the low-level wind anomaly, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, steering flow, the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） can to some extent account for the features of frequency, location, track length and duration of landfalling TCs. Since ENSO Modoki is expected to become more frequent in the near future, the results for ENSO Modoki presented in this paper are of particular significance.展开更多
A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic sol...A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly and the related physical quantities.展开更多
Coral bleaching, caused by elevated sea surface temperature(SST), is occurring more frequently and seriously worldwide. Due to the lack of field observations, we understand little about the large-scale variability of ...Coral bleaching, caused by elevated sea surface temperature(SST), is occurring more frequently and seriously worldwide. Due to the lack of field observations, we understand little about the large-scale variability of thermal stress in the South China Sea(SCS) and its effect on China's coral reefs. This paper used 4-km high resolution gap-filled SST(Filled SST) data and thermal stress data related to coral bleaching derived from Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database(Co RTAD) to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of chronic thermal stress and acute thermal stress to China's coral reefs in SCS from 1982 to 2009. We analyzed the trend of SST in summer and the thermal stress frequency, intensity and duration during this period. The results indicate that, as a chronic thermal stress, summer mean SST in SCS shows an average upward trend of 0.2℃/decade and the spatial pattern is heterogeneous. Waters of Xisha Islands and Dongsha Islands of the northern SCS are warming faster through time compared to Zhongsha Islands and Nansha Islands sea areas of the southern SCS. High frequency bleaching related thermal stress events for these reefs are seen in the area to the northwest of Luzon Island. Severe anomaly thermal stress events are more likely to occur during the subsequent year of the El Nino year for these coral reefs. Besides, the duration of thermal stress varies considerably by anomaly year and by region.展开更多
This study compares the climatology and long-term trend of northern winter stratospheric residual mean meridional circulation(RMMC), as well as its responses to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), stratospheric Quasi ...This study compares the climatology and long-term trend of northern winter stratospheric residual mean meridional circulation(RMMC), as well as its responses to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation(QBO), and solar cycle in ten reanalyses and a stratosphere-resolving model, CESM1-WACCM. The RMMC is a large-scale meridional circulation cell in the stratosphere, usually referred to as the estimate of the Brewer Dobson circulation(BDC). The distribution of the BDC is generally consistent among multiple reanalyses except that the NOAA twentieth century reanalysis(20RC) largely underestimates it. Most reanalyses(except ERA40 and ERA-Interim) show a strengthening trend for the BDC during 1979–2010. All reanalyses and CESM1-WACCM consistently reveal that the deep branch of the BDC is significantly enhanced in El Ni?o winters as more waves from the troposphere dissipate in the stratospheric polar vortex region. A secondary circulation cell is coupled to the temperature anomalies below the QBO easterly center at 50 hPa with tropical upwelling/cooling and midlatitude downwelling/warming, and similar secondary circulation cells also appear between 50–10 hPa and above 10 hPa to balance the temperature anomalies. The direct BDC response to QBO in the upper stratosphere creates a barrier near 30°N to prevent waves from propagating to midlatitudes, contributing to the weakening of the polar vortex. The shallow branch of the BDC in the lower stratosphere is intensified during solar minima, and the downwelling warms the Arctic lower stratosphere. The stratospheric responses to QBO and solar cycle in most reanalyses are generally consistent except in the two 20 CRs.展开更多
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Impro...The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 （CMIP5）. The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene （MP） and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIPS, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Nino- Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change oroiections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.展开更多
The EI Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in tropical Pacific ocean- atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation usin...The EI Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in tropical Pacific ocean- atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation using the ENSO model. Based on a class of the oscillator of the ENSO model, a approximate solution of the corresponding problem is studied employing the perturbation method.展开更多
Although the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) originates and develops in the equatorial Pacific, it has substantial climatic impacts around the globe. Thus, the ability to effectively simulate and predict ENSO one o...Although the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) originates and develops in the equatorial Pacific, it has substantial climatic impacts around the globe. Thus, the ability to effectively simulate and predict ENSO one or more seasons in advance is of great societal importance, but this remains a challenging task. The main obstacles are the diversity, complexity,irregularity, and asymmetry of ENSO. The purpose of this article is to organically integrate the understanding of ENSO based on current progress on the physical mechanisms, prediction, and connections between the interannual ENSO phenomenon and physical processes on other time and space scales, and to provide guidance for future studies by extracting specific important questions.展开更多
Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorialPacific (QBOWP) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model.In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects ...Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorialPacific (QBOWP) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model.In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects on ENSO are achieved through two ways: (1) the oceanicKelvin wave along equatorial Pacific, and (2) the Atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly, while ENSOeffects on QBOWP can be accomplished by the atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly. Diagnosisanalysis of the model results shows that the Atmospheric bridge (Walker circulation) plays a moreimportant role in interaction between the ENSO and QBOWP than the oceanic bridge (oceanic Kelvinwave along equatorial Pacific); It is found that by the interaction of the ENSO and QBOWP, a freeENSO oscillation with 3-5 years period could be substituted by a oscillation with the quasi-biennialperiod, and the dominant period of SST anomaly and wind anomaly in the far west equatorial Pacifictends to be prolonged with enhanced ENSO forcing. Generally, the multi-period variability in thecoupled Atmosphere-Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific can be achieved through the interactionbetween ENSO and QBOWP.展开更多
Plague has caused the death of hundreds of millions of people throughout the human history.Today this disease is again re-emerging and hence is again becoming an increasing threat to human health in several parts of t...Plague has caused the death of hundreds of millions of people throughout the human history.Today this disease is again re-emerging and hence is again becoming an increasing threat to human health in several parts of the world.However,impacts of global climate variation(e.g.El Nino and Southern Oscillation[ENSO])and global warming on plagues are largely unknown.Using cross-spectral analysis and cross-wavelet analysis,we have analyzed the relationship between increase rate of human plague in China during 1871–2003 and the following climate factors(as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index[SOI],Sea Surface Temperature of east Pacific equator[SST]and air Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere[NHT]).We found in the frequency domain that increase rate of human plague was closely associated with SOI and SST.Cross-spectral analysis reveals that significant coherencies between increase rate of human plague and ENSO were found over short periods(2–3 years),medium periods(6–7 years)and long periods(11–12 years,30–40 years).Cross-wavelet analysis reveals that increase rate of human plague oscillates in phase with SOI,but in anti-phase with SST over periods of 2–4 years and approximately 8 years(6–10 years).These results indicate that ENSO-driven climate variation may be important for occurrences of human plague in China.However,there is a need for a further analysis of the underlying mechanism between human plague in China and ENSO.展开更多
In the north-eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),the source area of the Yellow River(SAYR)has been experiencing significant changes in climatic and environmental conditions in recent decades.To date,few studies have co...In the north-eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),the source area of the Yellow River(SAYR)has been experiencing significant changes in climatic and environmental conditions in recent decades.To date,few studies have combined modern hydrological conditions with paleoclimate records to explore the mechanism(s)of these changes.This study seeks to improve understanding of hydrological variability on decadal and centennial timescales in the SAYR and to identify its general cause.We first determined annual fluctuations in the surface area of Lake Ngoring from 1985 to 2020 using multi-temporal Landsat images.The results show that lake surface area changes were generally consistent with variations in precipitation,streamflow and the regional dry-wet index in the SAYR,suggesting that the water balance of the Lake Ngoring area is closely associated with regional hydroclimate changes.These records are also comparable to the stalagmite δ^(18)O monsoon record,as well fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI).Moreover,an association of high TSI(total solar insolation)anomalies and sunspot numbers with the expansion of Lake Ngoring surface area is observed,implying that solar activity is the key driving factor for hydrologic variability in the SAYR on a decadal timescale.Following this line of reasoning,we compared the δ^(13)C org-based lake level fluctuations of Lake Ngoring for the last millennium,as previously reported,with the hydroclimatic history and the reconstructed TSI record.We conclude that the hydrological regime of Lake Ngoring has been mainly controlled by centennial fluctuations in precipitation for the last millennium,which is also dominated by solar activity.In general,it appears that solar activity has exerted a dominant influence on the hydrological regime of the SAYR on both decadal and centennial timescales,which is clearly manifested in the variations of lake area and water level of Lake Ngoring.展开更多
By training a convolutional neural network(CNN) model, we successfully recognize different phases of the El Nino-Southern oscillation. Our model achieves high recognition performance,with accuracy rates of 89.4% for t...By training a convolutional neural network(CNN) model, we successfully recognize different phases of the El Nino-Southern oscillation. Our model achieves high recognition performance,with accuracy rates of 89.4% for the training dataset and 86.4% for the validation dataset.Through statistical analysis of the weight parameter distribution and activation output in the CNN, we find that most of the convolution kernels and hidden layer neurons remain inactive,while only two convolution kernels and two hidden layer neurons play active roles. By examining the weight parameters of connections between the active convolution kernels and the active hidden neurons, we can automatically differentiate various types of El Nino and La Nina,thereby identifying the specific functions of each part of the CNN. We anticipate that this progress will be helpful for future studies on both climate prediction and a deeper understanding of artificial neural networks.展开更多
This research investigated the linkages between tropical cyclones(TCs)and extreme precipitation,and their associations with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over China.The contribution of TC-induced to total extreme ...This research investigated the linkages between tropical cyclones(TCs)and extreme precipitation,and their associations with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over China.The contribution of TC-induced to total extreme precipitation events along the southeast coast of China was higher than 50%,and the values gradually decreased as TCs moved inland.However,the precipitation extremes(magnitude and frequency)related to TCs did not show statistically significant changes over the most recent 57 years.The impacts of TCs on precipitation extremes are evidently modulated by the ENSO phases.We found less extreme precipitation linked with TCs in southeastern China during El Nino phase,because of the fewer TC tracks over this region and less TC genesis in the western North Pacific(WNP).The small TC track density over southeastern China is due to the prevalent westerly steering flow and abnormal integrated vapor transport from northern to southern China during El Nino years.Additionally,warmer sea surface temperature,more vigorous westerlies,larger vorticity in 250 hPa,and higher divergence in 850 hPa in an El Nino phase jointly displaced the mean genesis of the WNP TCs eastward and this led to fewer TCs passing through southeastern China.展开更多
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40576012 and 90111011, the State Key Development Program for Basics Research of China under Grant No. 2004CB418304, the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No. KZCX3-SW-221 and in part by E- Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission under Grant No. E03004.
文摘A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation （THC） in atmosphere-ocean for global climate is considered. By using the generalized variational iteration method, the approximate solution of a simplified nonlinear model is studied. The generalized variational iteration method is an analytic method, and the obtained analytic solution can be operated sequentially. The authors also diversify qualitative and quantitative behaviors for corresponding physical quantities.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants Nos: D06-40552002, 40576016) the Qingdao Municipal Bureau of Science and Technology (Grant No: 02-KJYSH-03).
文摘The gridded （1/3°＊1/3°） altimetry data from October 1992 through December 2004 were analyzed to study the seasonal and interannual variabilities of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） at the surface in the western North Pacific Ocean. Calculations show that on annual average the bifurcation occurs at about 13.4°N at the surface. The geostrophic flow derived from Sea Surface Height （SSH） data shows that the southernmost latitude of the NEC bifurcation at the surface is about 12.9°N in June and the northernmost latitude is about 14.1°N in December. Correlation analyses between the bifurcation latitude and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOl） suggest that the bifurcation latitude is highly correlated with the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events. During the E1 Nino years the bifurcation of the NEC takes place at higher latitudes and vice versa.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos40679016 and 10471039)the State Key Program for Basic Research of China(Grant Nos2003CB415101-03 and 2004CB418304)+2 种基金the Key Basic Research Foundation ofthe Chinese Academy of Sciences,China(Grant No KZCX3-SW-221)partially by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission of China(Grant No N.E03004)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China(Grant No Y60628)
文摘The EI Nimo and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea-air interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model is proposed. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model and by employing the method of homotopic mapping, the approximate solution of equations for the corresponding ENSO model is studied. It is proved from the results that homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the sea-air oscillator for the ENSO model.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40676016, No. 10471039)National Key Project for Basics Research (No. 2003CB415101-03, No. 2004CB418304)+1 种基金Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX3-SW-221)E-Insitutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (No. E03004)
文摘A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation (THC) in atmosphere-ocean for global cli-mate is considered. By using the multi-scales method, the asymptotic solution of a simplified weakly nonlinear model is discussed. Firstly, by introducing first scale, the zeroth order approximate solution of the model is obtained. Sec-ondly, by using the multi-scales, the first order approximate equation of the model is found. Finally, second order ap-proximate equation is formed to eliminate the secular terms, and a uniformly valid asymptotic expansion of solution is decided. The multi-scales solving method is an analytic method which can be used to analyze operation sequentially. And then we can also study the diversified qualitative and quantitative behaviors for corresponding physical quantities. This paper aims at providing a valid method for solving a box model of the nonlinear equation.
文摘A class of coupled system to oscillate of the E1 Nino/La Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions and asymptotic behavior of the solution for an ENSO model are obtained.
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955200)the National Public Benefit(Meteorology)Research Foundation of China(Grant No.GYHY201306018)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41230420,41176013)Zhang Jing was supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)the Jiangsu Innovation Cultivation Project for Graduate Student(Grant No.CXZZ13_0502)
文摘Most ocean-atmosphere coupled models have difficulty in predicting the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） when starting from the boreal spring season. However, the cause of this spring predictability barrier （SPB） phenomenon remains elusive. We investigated the spatial characteristics of optimal initial errors that cause a significant SPB for E1 Nifio events by using the monthly mean data of the pre-industrial （PI） control runs from several models in CMIP5 experiments. The results indicated that the SPB-related optimal initial errors often present an SST pattern with positive errors in the central-eastern equatorial Pa- cific, and a subsurface temperature pattern with positive errors in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and nega- tive errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The SPB-related optimal initial errors exhibit a typical La Ni- fia-like evolving mode, ultimately causing a large but negative prediction error of the Nifio-3.4 SST anomalies for El Nifio events. The negative prediction errors were found to originate from the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific and then grow to be large in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is therefore reasonable to suggest that the E1 Nifio predictions may be most sensitive to the initial errors of temperature in the subsurface layers of the western equatorial Pacific and the Nifio-3.4 region, thus possibly representing sensitive areas for adaptive observation. That is, if additional observations were to be preferentially deployed in these two regions, it might be possible to avoid large prediction errors for E1 Nifio and generate a better forecast than one based on additional observations targeted elsewhere. Moreover, we also confirmed that the SPB-related optimal initial errors bear a strong resemblance to the optimal precursory disturbance for E1 Nifio and La Nifia events. This indicated that im- provement of the observation network by additional observations in the identified sensitive areas would also be
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 40676016 and 10471039）, the National Key Basics Research Special Foundation of China （Grant No 2004CB418304）, the Key Basic Research Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences （Grant No KZCX3-SW-221） and in part by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission （Grant No NE03004）.
文摘The EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, a class of coupled system of the ENSO mechanism is considered. Based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the asymptotic solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the approximate method. It is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 90111011 and 10471039）, the State Key Program for Basics Research of China （Grant Nos 2003CB415101-03 and 2004CB418304）, the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences （Grant No KZCX3-SW-221） and partly by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission of China （Grant No N.E03004）.
文摘The EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is created. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the method of homotopic mapping. It is proved from the results that the homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.
基金supported by The National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40976011)the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean(Grant No.201105018)the National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430300)
文摘Impacts of EI Nino Modoki （ENM）, La Nina Modoki （LNM）, canonical EI Nifio （CEN） and canonical La Nifia （CLN） on tropical cyclones （TCs） that made landfall over China's Mainland during 1951-2011 are analysed using best-track data from China, the USA and Japan. Relative to cold phase years （LNM and CLN）, landfalling TCs in warm years （ENM and CEN） have a farther east genesis location, as well as longer track lengths and durations, both in total and before landfall. ENM demonstrates the highest landfall frequency, most northerly mean landfall position, and shortest after-landfall sustainability （track length and duration）, which indicate a more frequent and extensive coverage of China's Mainland by TCs, but with shorter after-landfall influence. CEN has low landfall frequency and the most southerly mean landfall location. LNM has the most westerly genesis location, being significantly farther west than the 1951-2011 average and leading to short mean track lengths and durations both in total or before landfall, all of which are significantly shorter than the 1951-2011 average. Variations in the low-level wind anomaly, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, steering flow, the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） can to some extent account for the features of frequency, location, track length and duration of landfalling TCs. Since ENSO Modoki is expected to become more frequent in the near future, the results for ENSO Modoki presented in this paper are of particular significance.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40876010)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China (Grant No.Y6110502)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of the Education Bureau of Anhui Province of China (Grant Nos.KJ2011A135 and KJ2011Z003)the LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund of Chinathe Foundation of E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission,China (Grant No.E03004)
文摘A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly and the related physical quantities.
基金Under the auspices of National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2012AA12A406)
文摘Coral bleaching, caused by elevated sea surface temperature(SST), is occurring more frequently and seriously worldwide. Due to the lack of field observations, we understand little about the large-scale variability of thermal stress in the South China Sea(SCS) and its effect on China's coral reefs. This paper used 4-km high resolution gap-filled SST(Filled SST) data and thermal stress data related to coral bleaching derived from Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database(Co RTAD) to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of chronic thermal stress and acute thermal stress to China's coral reefs in SCS from 1982 to 2009. We analyzed the trend of SST in summer and the thermal stress frequency, intensity and duration during this period. The results indicate that, as a chronic thermal stress, summer mean SST in SCS shows an average upward trend of 0.2℃/decade and the spatial pattern is heterogeneous. Waters of Xisha Islands and Dongsha Islands of the northern SCS are warming faster through time compared to Zhongsha Islands and Nansha Islands sea areas of the southern SCS. High frequency bleaching related thermal stress events for these reefs are seen in the area to the northwest of Luzon Island. Severe anomaly thermal stress events are more likely to occur during the subsequent year of the El Nino year for these coral reefs. Besides, the duration of thermal stress varies considerably by anomaly year and by region.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41705024,41875048)the National Key R&D Program of China(2016YFA0602104)+1 种基金the Planning and Budgeting Committee of the Council for Higher Education in Israelthe Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST(2016r060)
文摘This study compares the climatology and long-term trend of northern winter stratospheric residual mean meridional circulation(RMMC), as well as its responses to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation(QBO), and solar cycle in ten reanalyses and a stratosphere-resolving model, CESM1-WACCM. The RMMC is a large-scale meridional circulation cell in the stratosphere, usually referred to as the estimate of the Brewer Dobson circulation(BDC). The distribution of the BDC is generally consistent among multiple reanalyses except that the NOAA twentieth century reanalysis(20RC) largely underestimates it. Most reanalyses(except ERA40 and ERA-Interim) show a strengthening trend for the BDC during 1979–2010. All reanalyses and CESM1-WACCM consistently reveal that the deep branch of the BDC is significantly enhanced in El Ni?o winters as more waves from the troposphere dissipate in the stratospheric polar vortex region. A secondary circulation cell is coupled to the temperature anomalies below the QBO easterly center at 50 hPa with tropical upwelling/cooling and midlatitude downwelling/warming, and similar secondary circulation cells also appear between 50–10 hPa and above 10 hPa to balance the temperature anomalies. The direct BDC response to QBO in the upper stratosphere creates a barrier near 30°N to prevent waves from propagating to midlatitudes, contributing to the weakening of the polar vortex. The shallow branch of the BDC in the lower stratosphere is intensified during solar minima, and the downwelling warms the Arctic lower stratosphere. The stratospheric responses to QBO and solar cycle in most reanalyses are generally consistent except in the two 20 CRs.
基金This work is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41420104006 and 41330423）, and by the R＆D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry （Meteorology） （GYHY201506012）.
文摘The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 （CMIP5）. The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene （MP） and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIPS, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Nino- Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change oroiections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 11071205 and 11101349）, the “Strate- gic Priority Research Program-Climate Change： Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China （Grant No. XDA01020304）, the Natural Science Foundation from the Education Bureau of Anhui Province, China （Grant No. KJ2011A135）, and the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China （Grant No. BK2011042）.
文摘The EI Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in tropical Pacific ocean- atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation using the ENSO model. Based on a class of the oscillator of the ENSO model, a approximate solution of the corresponding problem is studied employing the perturbation method.
基金supported by the National Program on Global Change and Air-sea Interaction(Grant No.GASI-IPOVAI-06)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41805045)。
文摘Although the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) originates and develops in the equatorial Pacific, it has substantial climatic impacts around the globe. Thus, the ability to effectively simulate and predict ENSO one or more seasons in advance is of great societal importance, but this remains a challenging task. The main obstacles are the diversity, complexity,irregularity, and asymmetry of ENSO. The purpose of this article is to organically integrate the understanding of ENSO based on current progress on the physical mechanisms, prediction, and connections between the interannual ENSO phenomenon and physical processes on other time and space scales, and to provide guidance for future studies by extracting specific important questions.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40333030 and 40233033).
文摘Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorialPacific (QBOWP) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model.In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects on ENSO are achieved through two ways: (1) the oceanicKelvin wave along equatorial Pacific, and (2) the Atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly, while ENSOeffects on QBOWP can be accomplished by the atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly. Diagnosisanalysis of the model results shows that the Atmospheric bridge (Walker circulation) plays a moreimportant role in interaction between the ENSO and QBOWP than the oceanic bridge (oceanic Kelvinwave along equatorial Pacific); It is found that by the interaction of the ENSO and QBOWP, a freeENSO oscillation with 3-5 years period could be substituted by a oscillation with the quasi-biennialperiod, and the dominant period of SST anomaly and wind anomaly in the far west equatorial Pacifictends to be prolonged with enhanced ENSO forcing. Generally, the multi-period variability in thecoupled Atmosphere-Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific can be achieved through the interactionbetween ENSO and QBOWP.
基金an Albert Einstein Professorship to N.C.Stenseth,a cooperation grant(GJHZ0701-7)supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Plague has caused the death of hundreds of millions of people throughout the human history.Today this disease is again re-emerging and hence is again becoming an increasing threat to human health in several parts of the world.However,impacts of global climate variation(e.g.El Nino and Southern Oscillation[ENSO])and global warming on plagues are largely unknown.Using cross-spectral analysis and cross-wavelet analysis,we have analyzed the relationship between increase rate of human plague in China during 1871–2003 and the following climate factors(as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index[SOI],Sea Surface Temperature of east Pacific equator[SST]and air Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere[NHT]).We found in the frequency domain that increase rate of human plague was closely associated with SOI and SST.Cross-spectral analysis reveals that significant coherencies between increase rate of human plague and ENSO were found over short periods(2–3 years),medium periods(6–7 years)and long periods(11–12 years,30–40 years).Cross-wavelet analysis reveals that increase rate of human plague oscillates in phase with SOI,but in anti-phase with SST over periods of 2–4 years and approximately 8 years(6–10 years).These results indicate that ENSO-driven climate variation may be important for occurrences of human plague in China.However,there is a need for a further analysis of the underlying mechanism between human plague in China and ENSO.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42171160 and 42172205).
文摘In the north-eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),the source area of the Yellow River(SAYR)has been experiencing significant changes in climatic and environmental conditions in recent decades.To date,few studies have combined modern hydrological conditions with paleoclimate records to explore the mechanism(s)of these changes.This study seeks to improve understanding of hydrological variability on decadal and centennial timescales in the SAYR and to identify its general cause.We first determined annual fluctuations in the surface area of Lake Ngoring from 1985 to 2020 using multi-temporal Landsat images.The results show that lake surface area changes were generally consistent with variations in precipitation,streamflow and the regional dry-wet index in the SAYR,suggesting that the water balance of the Lake Ngoring area is closely associated with regional hydroclimate changes.These records are also comparable to the stalagmite δ^(18)O monsoon record,as well fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI).Moreover,an association of high TSI(total solar insolation)anomalies and sunspot numbers with the expansion of Lake Ngoring surface area is observed,implying that solar activity is the key driving factor for hydrologic variability in the SAYR on a decadal timescale.Following this line of reasoning,we compared the δ^(13)C org-based lake level fluctuations of Lake Ngoring for the last millennium,as previously reported,with the hydroclimatic history and the reconstructed TSI record.We conclude that the hydrological regime of Lake Ngoring has been mainly controlled by centennial fluctuations in precipitation for the last millennium,which is also dominated by solar activity.In general,it appears that solar activity has exerted a dominant influence on the hydrological regime of the SAYR on both decadal and centennial timescales,which is clearly manifested in the variations of lake area and water level of Lake Ngoring.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12135003)。
文摘By training a convolutional neural network(CNN) model, we successfully recognize different phases of the El Nino-Southern oscillation. Our model achieves high recognition performance,with accuracy rates of 89.4% for the training dataset and 86.4% for the validation dataset.Through statistical analysis of the weight parameter distribution and activation output in the CNN, we find that most of the convolution kernels and hidden layer neurons remain inactive,while only two convolution kernels and two hidden layer neurons play active roles. By examining the weight parameters of connections between the active convolution kernels and the active hidden neurons, we can automatically differentiate various types of El Nino and La Nina,thereby identifying the specific functions of each part of the CNN. We anticipate that this progress will be helpful for future studies on both climate prediction and a deeper understanding of artificial neural networks.
基金financially supported by the Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Grant No.IWHR-SKL-201919)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFA0605603)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41901041 and U1911205)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)(Grant No.2020G12)。
文摘This research investigated the linkages between tropical cyclones(TCs)and extreme precipitation,and their associations with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over China.The contribution of TC-induced to total extreme precipitation events along the southeast coast of China was higher than 50%,and the values gradually decreased as TCs moved inland.However,the precipitation extremes(magnitude and frequency)related to TCs did not show statistically significant changes over the most recent 57 years.The impacts of TCs on precipitation extremes are evidently modulated by the ENSO phases.We found less extreme precipitation linked with TCs in southeastern China during El Nino phase,because of the fewer TC tracks over this region and less TC genesis in the western North Pacific(WNP).The small TC track density over southeastern China is due to the prevalent westerly steering flow and abnormal integrated vapor transport from northern to southern China during El Nino years.Additionally,warmer sea surface temperature,more vigorous westerlies,larger vorticity in 250 hPa,and higher divergence in 850 hPa in an El Nino phase jointly displaced the mean genesis of the WNP TCs eastward and this led to fewer TCs passing through southeastern China.
