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汇率目标制、货币目标制和通货膨胀目标制的比较及其在我国的应用的探讨 被引量:20
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作者 卢宝梅 《国际金融研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第1期69-80,共12页
汇率目标制、货币目标制在各自的经济背景下都起到了稳定一国通货、稳定汇率从而稳定一国物价总水平、促进经济增长的作用。起始于20世纪80年代末期,通货膨胀目标制代替汇率目标制、货币目标制成为许多国家追逐长期价格稳定的一种货币... 汇率目标制、货币目标制在各自的经济背景下都起到了稳定一国通货、稳定汇率从而稳定一国物价总水平、促进经济增长的作用。起始于20世纪80年代末期,通货膨胀目标制代替汇率目标制、货币目标制成为许多国家追逐长期价格稳定的一种货币政策新框架,在取得长期价格稳定和金融稳定上具有更多优点和灵活性。我国金融开放条件下货币政策调控面临国内货币需求不稳定,内部、外部经济不平衡,金融不平衡等问题,在货币目标制和汇率目标制难以实现货币政策有效调控的情况下,建议应对我国的货币政策调控方式做出调整,采用通货膨胀目标制的货币政策框架。 展开更多
关键词 汇率目标制 货币目标制 通货膨胀目标制 价格稳定 金融稳定
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Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China:1997-2007 被引量:16
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作者 Chengsi Zhang Hong Pang 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2008年第4期1-15,共15页
The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997and 2007are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China's improved position in terms of foreign exchange p... The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997and 2007are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China's improved position in terms of foreign exchange purchases, ignited by huge foreign capital inflows, has effectively induced excess liquidity in China. More importantly, by developing an econometric madel for inflation and excess liquidity, the present study demonstrates that excess liquidity has imposed significant pressure on inflation in China over the past 10 years. This finding suggests that excess liquidity in China has not only contributed to the rise in stock prices and the real estate market boom, but also affected the consumer goods market. The potential transmission mechanism of liquidity-driven inflation and policy implications of the findings of this study are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 capital inflow excess liquidity INFLATION monetary policy
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石油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响——基于DSGE模型的分析 被引量:15
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作者 柳明 宋潇 《南开经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第6期74-96,共23页
本文建立了一个包含货币政策的DSGE模型并利用1999年—2011年的季度数据对模型的参数进行估计,然后分析了石油价格冲击对于宏观经济波动的影响。我们发现,石油价格上涨冲击对于产出的负向作用更大,导致货币当局选择宽松的货币政策去迅... 本文建立了一个包含货币政策的DSGE模型并利用1999年—2011年的季度数据对模型的参数进行估计,然后分析了石油价格冲击对于宏观经济波动的影响。我们发现,石油价格上涨冲击对于产出的负向作用更大,导致货币当局选择宽松的货币政策去迅速缓解产出受到的反向冲击,但通货膨胀将会持续更长时间,从而出现产出与通胀"双增长"情况。此外,对于我国这样的经济体系,为了稳定产出而采取的适度宽松的货币政策能够更好地稳定各经济变量。 展开更多
关键词 动态随机一般均衡模型 石油价格冲击 货币政策
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Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment:Evidence from Chinese Micro Data 被引量:12
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作者 Ying Sophie Huang Frank M.Song Yizhong Wang 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2012年第5期1-20,共20页
This paper investigates how a firm's characteristics restrict the influence of monetary policy changes on its investment behavior. Focusing on China's listed companies for a sample period from the first quarter of 2... This paper investigates how a firm's characteristics restrict the influence of monetary policy changes on its investment behavior. Focusing on China's listed companies for a sample period from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2011, we find that quantity- oriented and price-based monetary policies have heterogeneous impacts on corporate investment behavior, but the influence of monetary policies is constrained by the liquidity, inventory, size and asset-liability ratio of a firm. Firms with higher liquidity, lower inventory level and lower asset-liability ratios are less sensitive to the impact from two kinds of monetary policies. The larger the size of the firm, the less it is subject to influenee from quantity-oriented monetary policy; it responds more to price-based monetary poliey. The policy implication is that the monetary authorities should pay attention to the importance of policy-making based on the monetary demand of mieroeconomie entities. 展开更多
关键词 micro-transmission mechanism monetary policy
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明代经济的结构性变化 被引量:12
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作者 赵轶峰 《求是学刊》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第2期140-152,2,共13页
明代中国经济领域发生的结构性、不可逆转性变化主要体现在五个方面,包括白银成为主导货币、赋役体制中基于土地并以货币征收的赋税比例扩大、货币财政体制形成、国内和国际市场体系发展、人口大幅度增长。这些变化相互关联,相互作用,... 明代中国经济领域发生的结构性、不可逆转性变化主要体现在五个方面,包括白银成为主导货币、赋役体制中基于土地并以货币征收的赋税比例扩大、货币财政体制形成、国内和国际市场体系发展、人口大幅度增长。这些变化相互关联,相互作用,加速了社会财富的流转,推动了社会经济的整体繁荣,同时也因超出以往王朝行政、金融、财政管理的经验范围而加速了明朝帝制体系经济功能的失序。明朝政府经济干预的三个杠杆,赋税制度、政府财政支出、货币管理在明中期以后都有顺应市场经济的动向,但又都没有完全适应市场经济发展,原因主要在于帝制体系本身的僵化和明王朝自身进入衰败期之后的调整乏力。变化中形成的新的经济结构,可以容纳更大规模的商业繁荣,但是并不构成产业升级的直接基础,距离资本主义经济体制尚远,是一种帝制农商社会经济结构。 展开更多
关键词 明代 经济结构 赋役 货币 市场 人口
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Does China's Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi? 被引量:9
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作者 Anthony J. Makin 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2007年第3期89-102,共14页
A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China's export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for majo... A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China's export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for major trading partners, creating acute policy concerns abroad, especially in the USA. This paper provides a straighOeorward conceptual framework for interpreting the effect of China's exchange rate policy on its own trade balance and that of trading partners in the context of discrepant economic growth rates. It shows how pegging the exchange rate when output is outstripping expenditure induces China' s trade surpluses and counterpart deficits for its trading partners. An important corollary is that given its strictly regulated capital account, China's persistently large surpluses imply a significantly undervalued renminbi, which should gradually become more flexible. 展开更多
关键词 economic growth exchange rate monetary policy trade surplus
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黄金的金融属性及其对我国金融市场和货币政策的影响 被引量:6
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作者 王光伟 潘轶民 《苏州大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 北大核心 2005年第3期36-41,共6页
黄金非货币化后,许多人将黄金仅仅视为一般商品,而在实际上并非如此。黄金在现代经济中仍具有许多重要的金融属性,正是这些属性使得黄金在保值、投资及货币政策的制定与贯彻方面都具有难以替代的作用。这对我国完善金融制度和金融市场... 黄金非货币化后,许多人将黄金仅仅视为一般商品,而在实际上并非如此。黄金在现代经济中仍具有许多重要的金融属性,正是这些属性使得黄金在保值、投资及货币政策的制定与贯彻方面都具有难以替代的作用。这对我国完善金融制度和金融市场体系有重要意义。 展开更多
关键词 黄金 金融属性 保值 货币政策
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China's New International Financial Strategy amid the Global Financial Crisis 被引量:8
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作者 MingZhang 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2009年第5期22-35,共14页
The Chinese Government has stepped up its drive to reconstruct its international ftnancial strategy after the sub-prime crisis developed into a global financial crisis in 2008. The main aim of the strategy is to reduc... The Chinese Government has stepped up its drive to reconstruct its international ftnancial strategy after the sub-prime crisis developed into a global financial crisis in 2008. The main aim of the strategy is to reduce the country's dependence on the US dollar in foreign trade, cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange reserve management. The strategy can be divided into three tiers: renminbi internationalization, regional monetary cooperation and reconstruction of the international monetary regime. So far, the Chinese Government has fared well in the application of all three tiers. We hoM that the Chinese Government should continue in the same direction in a coordinated manner despite various challenges it faces. 展开更多
关键词 global financial crisis global financial strategy renminbi internationalization regional monetary cooperation
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Research Progress on Evaluation Frameworks of Regional Ecological Sustainability 被引量:9
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作者 PENG Jian WANG Yanglin +2 位作者 WU Jiansheng SHEN Hong PAN Yajing 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2011年第4期496-510,共15页
As natural ecosystems provide the material basis and fundamental support for regional sustainable devel-opment,the sustainability of natural ecosystems is an important prerequisite and a viable approach for the achiev... As natural ecosystems provide the material basis and fundamental support for regional sustainable devel-opment,the sustainability of natural ecosystems is an important prerequisite and a viable approach for the achievement of regional sustainable development.It is also the final criteria to assess whether sustainable development paradigm is successful.Along with the increasing impacts of human activities on natural ecosystems,the evaluation of regional ecological sustainability has become one of the key issues for research on macro ecology and sustainable development.Based on different unit of indicators,this study firstly groups the evaluation frameworks of regional ecological sus-tainability into three major types:comprehensive index evaluation with dimensionless unit,monetary valuation,and biophysical quantity measurement.We then discuss and compare these types in terms of basic principles,scope of ap-plications,advantages and shortcomings.Finally,drawn on the discussion about characteristics of ecological sustain-ability,we outline the current trend and future directions of regional ecological sustainability evaluation,for instance,transition from sustainable development evaluation to sustainability science,integration of goal-oriented and problem-solving approaches,combination of spatial pattern analysis and ecological sustainability evaluation,and en-hancement of ecological sustainability evaluation at landscape scale. 展开更多
关键词 evaluation framework regional ecological sustainability research progress research prospects compre-hensive index evaluation monetary valuation biophysical quantity measurement
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丘浚──市场经济的早期憧憬者 被引量:4
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作者 赵靖 《海南大学学报(人文社会科学版)》 CSSCI 1998年第1期3-7,共5页
自然经济维护者和封建专制政权是排斥、压制商品经济的。明代思想家丘浚,对此则极力反对,并提出了具有时代前沿性的商品经济的主张:1.扩大商品流通,反对贸易禁制;2.反对官府垄断商品、市场,废罢各“榷”、“场”、“务”,提倡... 自然经济维护者和封建专制政权是排斥、压制商品经济的。明代思想家丘浚,对此则极力反对,并提出了具有时代前沿性的商品经济的主张:1.扩大商品流通,反对贸易禁制;2.反对官府垄断商品、市场,废罢各“榷”、“场”、“务”,提倡“民自为市”;3.改革货币制度,确定“三币”的地位和关系。 展开更多
关键词 丘浚 商品经济 “民自为市” 货币《大学衍义补》
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马尾松造纸原料林经济成熟的研究 被引量:8
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作者 江希钿 刘玉明 +1 位作者 江传阳 陈杜满 《中国造纸》 CAS 北大核心 2006年第2期46-50,共5页
在森林持续经营和考虑资金时间价值的基础上,从森林年平均货币收获量最大出发,提出了一个新的经济成熟龄计算公式,结合林分蓄积量、平均胸径、平均高、出材率和木材价格等因子模型,测算了不同立地类型的马尾松造纸原料林的经济成熟龄。... 在森林持续经营和考虑资金时间价值的基础上,从森林年平均货币收获量最大出发,提出了一个新的经济成熟龄计算公式,结合林分蓄积量、平均胸径、平均高、出材率和木材价格等因子模型,测算了不同立地类型的马尾松造纸原料林的经济成熟龄。分析了森林货币总收入、总支出、纯收入、年均纯收入的变化规律,探讨了木材价格、成本、利率等经济指标对马尾松造纸原料林经济成熟龄的影响。 展开更多
关键词 马尾松 经济成熟 货币
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What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance?Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model 被引量:6
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作者 Laurent L.Pauwels 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2008年第6期1-21,共21页
In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People's Bank of China (PBC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open mar... In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People's Bank of China (PBC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC' s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC's policy changes. 展开更多
关键词 monetary policy People's Bank of China qualitative response models
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Global Spillovers of China's Monetary Policy 被引量:1
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作者 Wenni Lei Dongzhou Mei Mi Zhang 《China & World Economy》 2024年第3期1-30,共30页
Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world.This study establishes a prox... Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world.This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies,taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks.The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables.Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output.This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies,while the transmission path did not change.The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle,although it does not drive the global financial cycle. 展开更多
关键词 China's monetary policy commodity prices external instruments global trade SPILLOVERS
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Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China 被引量:5
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作者 Chengsi Zhang 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2010年第3期40-55,共16页
This paper uses a stochastic volatility model structural break tests with unknown point, and a counterfactual simulation method to discuss the significant decline in inflation uncertainty in China over 1978-2009. We a... This paper uses a stochastic volatility model structural break tests with unknown point, and a counterfactual simulation method to discuss the significant decline in inflation uncertainty in China over 1978-2009. We attempt to quantify the contributions of better monetary policy and smaller structural shocks (including demand, supply and policy impacts) on the reduced inflation uncertainty. Empirical results in the present paper suggest that improved monetary policy accounts for only a small fraction of the reduction in inflation uncertainty from the pre-1997 period to the post-1997 period in China. The bulk of the significant moderation in inflation uncertainty arises from smaller shocks. This finding indicates that the quiescence of inflation in China over the past decade could well be followed by a return to a more turbulent inflation era. Therefore, the use of preemptive monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations and keep moderate inflation uncertainty is warranted. 展开更多
关键词 INFLATION inflation uncertainty monetary policy stochastic volatility
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Monetary policy and dynamic adjustment of corporate investment: A policy transmission channel perspective 被引量:5
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作者 Qiang Fu Xing Liu 《China Journal of Accounting Research》 2015年第2期91-109,共19页
We investigate monetary policy effects on corporate investment adjustment,using a sample of China's A-share listed firms(2005–2012), under an asymmetic framework and from a monetary policy transmission channel pe... We investigate monetary policy effects on corporate investment adjustment,using a sample of China's A-share listed firms(2005–2012), under an asymmetic framework and from a monetary policy transmission channel perspective. We find that corporate investment adjustment is faster in expansionary than contractionary monetary policy periods. Monetary policy has a significant effect on adjustment speed through monetary and credit channels. An increase in the growth rate of money supply or credit accelerates adjustment.Both effects are significantly greater during tightening than expansionary periods. The monetary channel has significant asymmetry, whereas the credit channel has none. Leverage moderates the relationship between monetary policy and adjustment, with a greater effect in expansionary periods. This study enriches the corporate investment behavior literature and can help governments develop and optimize macro-control policies. 展开更多
关键词 monetary POLICY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS ASYMMETRIC e
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External Dependent Economy and Structural Real Estate Bubbles in China 被引量:5
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作者 Lijian Sun Shengxing Zhang 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2008年第1期34-50,共17页
This study explores the relationship between external dependent economic structure, surplus monetary liquidity and real estate bubbles in China. Employing monthly data from 28 Chinese provinces over the period 2004-20... This study explores the relationship between external dependent economic structure, surplus monetary liquidity and real estate bubbles in China. Employing monthly data from 28 Chinese provinces over the period 2004-2005, we test whether real estate bubbles are caused by structural surplus monetary liquidity, ccontrolling other possible factors. Our empirical findings show that the growth of private savings in the banking sector, as an index of surplus monetary liquidity, ferments real estate bubbles regardless of the different development level across the 28 provinces. 展开更多
关键词 private saving real estate bubble ripple effect surplus monetary liquidity
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A Study of Coordinating China's Two-Pillar Regulatory Policy under the Shock of the Fed's Interest Rate Hike-From the Perspective of"Stable Growth"and"Risk Prevention" 被引量:2
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作者 Yuhuan Yi Min Pan 《China Finance and Economic Review》 2023年第1期24-47,共24页
Domestic asset price fluctuations triggered by the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike may lead to a spiral of mutual feedback between fluctuations in real economy and systematic risks of the financial sector.B... Domestic asset price fluctuations triggered by the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike may lead to a spiral of mutual feedback between fluctuations in real economy and systematic risks of the financial sector.By constructing a DSGE model of small-scale open economy including cross-border capital flows and supply-demand financial frictions,this paper describes the negative feedback mechanism formed by the interplay between domestic real-economy fluctuations and financial risks on both supply and demand sides under the impact of Fed's interest rate hike,and studies how to coordinate monetary policy and macroprudential policies under the goals of maintaining stable growth and preventing risks. 展开更多
关键词 Fed's monetary policy two-pillar regulatory policy financial frictions on supply and demand sides DSGE model
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The Exorbitant Privilege of US Treasuries and China's Choices in the New
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作者 Di Dongsheng Wang Xueying 《Contemporary International Relations》 2024年第4期4-25,共22页
After the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971,US Treasuries replaced gold as the value benchmark of the international monetary system and acquired an exorbitant privilege.Subsequently,the total amount of US ... After the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971,US Treasuries replaced gold as the value benchmark of the international monetary system and acquired an exorbitant privilege.Subsequently,the total amount of US debt exhibited an exponential expansion trend,unbound by any substantial constraints.The so-called debt ceiling is a partisan game rather than a rigid fiscal constraint on the United States.As long as there are no fundamental changes in the global monetary system,the international credit of US Treasuries will stay stable,and their trend of infinite expansion will be sustained.Massive quantitative easing policies have failed to significantly shake this stability,and the notion of global investors offloading US Treasuries is more an illusion than a fact.The exorbitant privilege of US Treasuries grants its federal government the“freedom to borrow,”shielding the American financial sector from due penalties during global financial crises and securing excessive returns in global capital cycles.In the old days when running“twin surpluses”on capital and current accounts,China kept the value of Renminbi low to support its export manufacturing sector along the southeast coast.As a result,China accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves,mainly US Treasuries.Nowadays,this practice is no longer necessary,yielding low returns and posing significant security risks. 展开更多
关键词 debt ceiling de-dollarization foreign exchange reserves transformation of the international monetary system US Treasuries
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Conjuncture Cycles and Monetary Anomalies Are Unwelcome Guests for Sustainability
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作者 Giovanni Antonio Cossiga 《Economics World》 2024年第1期1-16,共16页
Economic cycles are not economic evils but rather healing agents for returning to equilibrium,just as inflation and deflation are not economic misfortunes but the sign of bad governance and a bitter medicine for retur... Economic cycles are not economic evils but rather healing agents for returning to equilibrium,just as inflation and deflation are not economic misfortunes but the sign of bad governance and a bitter medicine for returning to calm monetary.Unfortunately,signs of poor governance are mistaken for unfortunate events,but are instead tools offered to restore economic systems.Politics seeks consensus and does not accept the bitter cure of recession.Monetary policy is therefore called into question even if monetary anomalies also depend on errors in the management of the economy;the result is the gradual increase in interest rates.Is the idea that we can achieve the goal of complete neutrality with nature acceptable in a global economic framework pervaded by inflation and denunciation?Can we similarly argue that economic problems can coexist once the goal of neutrality has been achieved?The answer is negative.We must correct these anomalies and dysfunctions of the economy,which cannot coexist in the new context of complete and indefinite equilibrium of tomorrow.And not even the idea that conflicts can be resolved with war seems to find a place in the renewed scenario of neutrality.In this regard we can remember that,when we have reached the economic optimum of complete neutrality,or at least we are close to it,the most socially and economically advanced territories and continents will benefit from an acceleration of productivity and development.Scarcity itself will give way to the new,long-awaited reality.A condition that approaches the state of abundance and which will produce surpluses to be allocated to countries and territories that are struggling towards the condition of neutrality.The acceleration of lagging continents and the recovery of altered economic systems are therefore preconditions that can allow us to access the state of global neutrality.As we get closer to the great objective,it is to be believed that the pretense of regulating conflicts through war will also disappear.With the new reality of abundance, 展开更多
关键词 monetary policy conjunctural cycles economic sustainability neutrality as goal continental aggregation
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Research on the Problems and Countermeasures of Monetary Capital Internal Control in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
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作者 Lina Sha Guanlin Liu Zhaoyong Ouyang 《Proceedings of Business and Economic Studies》 2024年第1期94-98,共5页
Small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)constitute the primary drivers of production within the nation’s existing enterprise landscape.They represent the most dynamic segment of the national economy and play a pivota... Small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)constitute the primary drivers of production within the nation’s existing enterprise landscape.They represent the most dynamic segment of the national economy and play a pivotal role in supporting economic growth,fostering employment,and enhancing people’s livelihoods.However,despite their significant and extensive organizational structures,only a fraction of these companies have established internal control systems,and even fewer possess robust ones.Building upon this premise and considering the prevailing circumstances of SMEs,this paper undertakes an empirical analysis of monetary fund management within this sector.It delves into the operational intricacies,exploring how monetary funds should be effectively implemented to ensure their safety and integrity.Furthermore,it proposes viable strategies to enhance the circulation efficiency of monetary funds,thereby maximizing benefits for enterprises.Addressing these challenges is crucial for SME managers striving to achieve sustainable profit growth and navigate the complexities of financial management. 展开更多
关键词 monetary funds Internal control Optimization scheme
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