AIM: Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has recently gained wide acceptance over the old Child-Pugh score in predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, although it is more sophisticated. ...AIM: Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has recently gained wide acceptance over the old Child-Pugh score in predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, although it is more sophisticated. We compared the predictive values of MELD, Child-Pugh and creatinine modified Child-Pugh scores in decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: A cohort of 102 patients with decompensated cirrhosis followed-up for a median of 6 mo was studied.Two types of modified Child-Pugh scores estimated by adding 0-4 points to the original score using creatinine levels as a sixth categorical variable were evaluated.RESULTS: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves did not differ significantly among the four scores, but none had excellent diagnostic accuracy (areas:0.71-0.79). Child-Pugh score appeared to be the worst, while the accuracy of MELD was almost identical with that of modified Child-Pugh in predicting short-term and slightly better in predicting medium-term survival. In Cox regression analysis, all four scores were significantly associated with survival, while MELD and creatinine-modified Child-Pugh scores had better predictive values (c-statistics: 0.73 and 0.69-0.70) than Child-Pugh score (c-statistics: 0.65). Adjustment for gamma-glutamate transpeptidase levels increased the predictive values of all systems (c-statistics: 0.77-0.81). Analysis of the expected and observed survival curves in patients subgroups according to their prognosis showed that all models fit the data reasonably well with MELD probably discriminating better the subgroups with worse prognosis. CONCLUSION: MELD compared to the old Child-Pugh and particularly to creatinine-modified Child-Pugh scores does not appear to offer a clear advantage in predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis in daily clinical practice.展开更多
随着肝移植技术的逐渐成熟和新型免疫抑制剂的不断问世,肝移植已成为终末期肝病患者的最佳治疗方案.在美国,每年等待肝移植的患者超过18000人,但由于肝源所限,能进行肝移植的却只有5000人.CTP(Child-Turcotte-Pugh)分级因其本身固有的...随着肝移植技术的逐渐成熟和新型免疫抑制剂的不断问世,肝移植已成为终末期肝病患者的最佳治疗方案.在美国,每年等待肝移植的患者超过18000人,但由于肝源所限,能进行肝移植的却只有5000人.CTP(Child-Turcotte-Pugh)分级因其本身固有的缺陷已不适于作为肝移植的标准,因此需要制定一个公平、合理的新标准来代替CTP分级.终末期肝病模型(model for end-stage liver disease,MELD)分级是2002年2月由美国器官分配联合网络(United Network for OrganSharing,UNOS)颁布实施的成人肝移植的新标准.本文就肝移植标准的历史变化和MELD分级的产生、特点、在肝移植方面的应用与发展及目前存在的问题作一叙述.展开更多
Background and Aims:It remains difficult to forecast the 180-day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-acuteon-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF)using existing prognostic models.The present study aimed to derive n...Background and Aims:It remains difficult to forecast the 180-day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-acuteon-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF)using existing prognostic models.The present study aimed to derive novel-innovative models to enhance the predictive effectiveness of the 180-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.Methods:The present cohort study examined 171 HBV-ACLF patients(non-survivors,n=62;survivors,n=109).The 27 retrospectively collected parameters included the basic demographic characteristics,clinical comorbidities,and laboratory values.Backward stepwise logistic regression(LR)and the classification and regression tree(CART)analysis were used to derive two predictive models.Meanwhile,a nomogram was created based on the LR analysis.The accuracy of the LR and CART model was detected through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),compared with model of end-stage liver disease(MELD)scores.Results:Among 171 HBV-ACLF patients,the mean age was 45.17 years-old,and 11.7%of the patients were female.The LR model was constructed with six independent factors,which included age,total bilirubin,prothrombin activity,lymphocytes,monocytes and hepatic encephalopathy.The following seven variables were the prognostic factors for HBV-ACLF in the CART model:age,total bilirubin,prothrombin time,lymphocytes,neutrophils,monocytes,and blood urea nitrogen.The AUROC for the CART model(0.878)was similar to that for the LR model(0.878,p=0.898),and this exceeded that for the MELD scores(0.728,p<0.0001).Conclusions:The LR and CART model are both superior to the MELD scores in predicting the 180-day mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF.Both the LR and CART model can be used as medical decision-making tools by clinicians.展开更多
AIM:To determine the contributions of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1),cytokines and liver disease severity to bone mineral density in patients pre-transplantation.METHODS:Serum IGF-1,tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF...AIM:To determine the contributions of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1),cytokines and liver disease severity to bone mineral density in patients pre-transplantation.METHODS:Serum IGF-1,tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) were measured and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score calculated in 121 adult patients referred to a single centre for liver transplantation.Bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine and femoral neck were assessed via dual energy X-ray absorptiometry.Demographics,liver disease etiology,medication use and relevant biochemistry were recorded.RESULTS:A total of 117 subjects were included,with low BMD seen in 68.6%,irrespective of disease etiol-ogy.In multivariable analysis,low body mass index (BMI),increased bone turnover and low IGF-1 were independent predictors of low spinal bone density.At the hip,BMI,IGF-1 and vitamin D status were predictive.Despite prevalent elevations of TNFα and IL-6,levels did not correlate with degree of bone loss.The MELD score failed to predict low BMD in this pre-transplant population.CONCLUSION:Osteopenia/osteoporosis is common in advanced liver disease.Low serum IGF-1 is weakly predictive but serum cytokine and MELD score fail to predict the severity of bone disease.展开更多
文摘AIM: Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has recently gained wide acceptance over the old Child-Pugh score in predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, although it is more sophisticated. We compared the predictive values of MELD, Child-Pugh and creatinine modified Child-Pugh scores in decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: A cohort of 102 patients with decompensated cirrhosis followed-up for a median of 6 mo was studied.Two types of modified Child-Pugh scores estimated by adding 0-4 points to the original score using creatinine levels as a sixth categorical variable were evaluated.RESULTS: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves did not differ significantly among the four scores, but none had excellent diagnostic accuracy (areas:0.71-0.79). Child-Pugh score appeared to be the worst, while the accuracy of MELD was almost identical with that of modified Child-Pugh in predicting short-term and slightly better in predicting medium-term survival. In Cox regression analysis, all four scores were significantly associated with survival, while MELD and creatinine-modified Child-Pugh scores had better predictive values (c-statistics: 0.73 and 0.69-0.70) than Child-Pugh score (c-statistics: 0.65). Adjustment for gamma-glutamate transpeptidase levels increased the predictive values of all systems (c-statistics: 0.77-0.81). Analysis of the expected and observed survival curves in patients subgroups according to their prognosis showed that all models fit the data reasonably well with MELD probably discriminating better the subgroups with worse prognosis. CONCLUSION: MELD compared to the old Child-Pugh and particularly to creatinine-modified Child-Pugh scores does not appear to offer a clear advantage in predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis in daily clinical practice.
文摘随着肝移植技术的逐渐成熟和新型免疫抑制剂的不断问世,肝移植已成为终末期肝病患者的最佳治疗方案.在美国,每年等待肝移植的患者超过18000人,但由于肝源所限,能进行肝移植的却只有5000人.CTP(Child-Turcotte-Pugh)分级因其本身固有的缺陷已不适于作为肝移植的标准,因此需要制定一个公平、合理的新标准来代替CTP分级.终末期肝病模型(model for end-stage liver disease,MELD)分级是2002年2月由美国器官分配联合网络(United Network for OrganSharing,UNOS)颁布实施的成人肝移植的新标准.本文就肝移植标准的历史变化和MELD分级的产生、特点、在肝移植方面的应用与发展及目前存在的问题作一叙述.
基金The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81470888)and(No.82002461)the Medjaden Academy and Research Foundation for Young Scientists(No.MJR20211110)the Fund for Fostering Young Scholars of Peking University Health Science Center(No.BMU2021PY010).
文摘Background and Aims:It remains difficult to forecast the 180-day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-acuteon-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF)using existing prognostic models.The present study aimed to derive novel-innovative models to enhance the predictive effectiveness of the 180-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.Methods:The present cohort study examined 171 HBV-ACLF patients(non-survivors,n=62;survivors,n=109).The 27 retrospectively collected parameters included the basic demographic characteristics,clinical comorbidities,and laboratory values.Backward stepwise logistic regression(LR)and the classification and regression tree(CART)analysis were used to derive two predictive models.Meanwhile,a nomogram was created based on the LR analysis.The accuracy of the LR and CART model was detected through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),compared with model of end-stage liver disease(MELD)scores.Results:Among 171 HBV-ACLF patients,the mean age was 45.17 years-old,and 11.7%of the patients were female.The LR model was constructed with six independent factors,which included age,total bilirubin,prothrombin activity,lymphocytes,monocytes and hepatic encephalopathy.The following seven variables were the prognostic factors for HBV-ACLF in the CART model:age,total bilirubin,prothrombin time,lymphocytes,neutrophils,monocytes,and blood urea nitrogen.The AUROC for the CART model(0.878)was similar to that for the LR model(0.878,p=0.898),and this exceeded that for the MELD scores(0.728,p<0.0001).Conclusions:The LR and CART model are both superior to the MELD scores in predicting the 180-day mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF.Both the LR and CART model can be used as medical decision-making tools by clinicians.
基金Supported by the Transplant Program of the University of Alberta Hospital
文摘AIM:To determine the contributions of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1),cytokines and liver disease severity to bone mineral density in patients pre-transplantation.METHODS:Serum IGF-1,tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) were measured and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score calculated in 121 adult patients referred to a single centre for liver transplantation.Bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine and femoral neck were assessed via dual energy X-ray absorptiometry.Demographics,liver disease etiology,medication use and relevant biochemistry were recorded.RESULTS:A total of 117 subjects were included,with low BMD seen in 68.6%,irrespective of disease etiol-ogy.In multivariable analysis,low body mass index (BMI),increased bone turnover and low IGF-1 were independent predictors of low spinal bone density.At the hip,BMI,IGF-1 and vitamin D status were predictive.Despite prevalent elevations of TNFα and IL-6,levels did not correlate with degree of bone loss.The MELD score failed to predict low BMD in this pre-transplant population.CONCLUSION:Osteopenia/osteoporosis is common in advanced liver disease.Low serum IGF-1 is weakly predictive but serum cytokine and MELD score fail to predict the severity of bone disease.
