Official monthly unemployment data is unavailable in China, while intense public interest in unemployment requires timely and accurate information. Using data on web queries from lead search engines in China, Baidu an...Official monthly unemployment data is unavailable in China, while intense public interest in unemployment requires timely and accurate information. Using data on web queries from lead search engines in China, Baidu and Google, I build two indices measuring intensity of online unemployment-related searches. The unemployment-related search indices identify a structural break in the time series between October and November 2008, which corresponds to a turning point indicated by some macroeconomic indicators. The unemployment- related search indices are proven to have significant correlation with Purchasing Managers＇ Employment Indices and a set of macroeconomic indicators that are closely related to changes in unemployment in China. The results of Granger causality analysis show that the unemployment-related search indices can improve predictions of the c indicators. It suggests that unemploy- ment-related searches can potentially provide valuable, timely, and low-cost information for macroeconomic monitoring.展开更多
In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief intro...In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.展开更多
Abstract This summary report highlights the confluence of continued downward pressures and deflation scares in the face of looming uncertainty in China＇s key macroeconomic landscapes. Counterfactual analyses and poli...Abstract This summary report highlights the confluence of continued downward pressures and deflation scares in the face of looming uncertainty in China＇s key macroeconomic landscapes. Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to benchmark forecasts, based on IAR-CMM model and taking into account both cyclical and secular factors. Economic deceleration is projected to continue in the short to medium term, with real GDP growth declining to 6.3% （5.5% using more reliable instead of official data） in 2016 and facing a significant risk of sliding further down in 2017. Five key factors contributing to the weak outlook, additional to frictions and impediments associated with economic transition/restructuring and lackluster domestic/external demands, are identified, including： lack of new growth/ development engine, exhaustion of government-led driving force, the crowding-out of private sectors by state-owned enterprises （SOEs） with excess capacity／capital overhang, nonperforming government sectors and officials, and twist or misinterpretation of the ＂New Normal.＂ A root cause of these problems, lying with sluggishness in China＇s transformation into a market based economy, has to do with overpowered government but underpowered market in resource allocation and government underperformance in enforcing integrity and transparency in the marketplace and in providing public goods and services. At the nexus between inclusive growth and institutional transformation are market oriented and rule of law governed structural reforms and harmonious development. As such, fundamental institutional reforms that dialectically balance demand and supply side factors and properly weigh short run stabilization against long run development should be elevated to the top of the agenda.展开更多
基金The Project is sponsored by the Scientific Research Foundation for the Retttmed Overseas Chinese Scholars, Ministry of Education of PRC, and supported by Beijing Natural Science Foundation （No. 9144025）. I would like to thank the reviewers who provide insightful comments and suggestions for improving this paper. I also would like to thank the editors who proofread and edit the paper. Without the supportive work of the reviewers and editors, this paper would not have been possible.
文摘Official monthly unemployment data is unavailable in China, while intense public interest in unemployment requires timely and accurate information. Using data on web queries from lead search engines in China, Baidu and Google, I build two indices measuring intensity of online unemployment-related searches. The unemployment-related search indices identify a structural break in the time series between October and November 2008, which corresponds to a turning point indicated by some macroeconomic indicators. The unemployment- related search indices are proven to have significant correlation with Purchasing Managers＇ Employment Indices and a set of macroeconomic indicators that are closely related to changes in unemployment in China. The results of Granger causality analysis show that the unemployment-related search indices can improve predictions of the c indicators. It suggests that unemploy- ment-related searches can potentially provide valuable, timely, and low-cost information for macroeconomic monitoring.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71631004,Key Project)the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(71625001)+2 种基金the Basic Scientific Center Project of National Science Foundation of China:Econometrics and Quantitative Policy Evaluation(71988101)the Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(19YJA910003)China Scholarship Council Funded Project(201806315045).
文摘In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.
文摘Abstract This summary report highlights the confluence of continued downward pressures and deflation scares in the face of looming uncertainty in China＇s key macroeconomic landscapes. Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to benchmark forecasts, based on IAR-CMM model and taking into account both cyclical and secular factors. Economic deceleration is projected to continue in the short to medium term, with real GDP growth declining to 6.3% （5.5% using more reliable instead of official data） in 2016 and facing a significant risk of sliding further down in 2017. Five key factors contributing to the weak outlook, additional to frictions and impediments associated with economic transition/restructuring and lackluster domestic/external demands, are identified, including： lack of new growth/ development engine, exhaustion of government-led driving force, the crowding-out of private sectors by state-owned enterprises （SOEs） with excess capacity／capital overhang, nonperforming government sectors and officials, and twist or misinterpretation of the ＂New Normal.＂ A root cause of these problems, lying with sluggishness in China＇s transformation into a market based economy, has to do with overpowered government but underpowered market in resource allocation and government underperformance in enforcing integrity and transparency in the marketplace and in providing public goods and services. At the nexus between inclusive growth and institutional transformation are market oriented and rule of law governed structural reforms and harmonious development. As such, fundamental institutional reforms that dialectically balance demand and supply side factors and properly weigh short run stabilization against long run development should be elevated to the top of the agenda.
