Five principal sources of uncertainty in quantitative mineral resource estimation are listed and illustrated by means of a simple example (mosaic model) and a case history study for large copper deposits in the Abitib...Five principal sources of uncertainty in quantitative mineral resource estimation are listed and illustrated by means of a simple example (mosaic model) and a case history study for large copper deposits in the Abitibi area of the Canadian Shield.Abitibi copper potential originally was estimated on the basis of 1968 estimates of production and reserves totalling 3.12 Mt Cu.This prognostication now could be evaluated on the basis of 2008 copper production and reserves totalling 9.50 Mt Cu.An earlier hindsight study performed on the basis of 1977 data (totalling 5.23 Mt Cu) showed seven new discoveries occurring either in the immediate vicinities of known deposits or on broad regional copper anomalies predicted from the 1968 inputs.By 1977,the global geographic distribution pattern of large copper deposits in the Abitibi area had stabilized.During the next 30 years,new copper was essentially found close to existing deposits,much of it deeper down in the Earths crust.In this paper,uncertainties associated with copper ore tonnage are analyzed by comparison of 2008 data with 1968 data using (a) log-log plots of size versus rank,and (b) lognormal QQ-plots.Straight lines fitted by least squares on these plots show that 1968 slopes provide good estimates of 2008 slopes but 1968 intercepts are much less than 2008 intercepts.In each linear log-weight versus log-rank plot,the slope is related to fractal dimension of a Pareto frequency distribution,and in a lognormal QQ-plot it is determined by logarithmic variance.The difference between 2008 and 1968 intercepts represents the increase in copper ore production and reserves from 1968 to 2008.The Pareto model fits actual copper and massive sulphides increase over the past 40 years better than the lognormal frequency distribution model for 10 km×10 km cells on favorable environments in the Abitibi area.展开更多
生物多样性中性理论(Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity)对群落中物种共存机制和多度分布提出不同于传统生态位理论的另一种解释:由处于同一营养级的物种构成的群落中,不同物种的个体间在生态学上是等价的;物种多度的分布主要决...生物多样性中性理论(Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity)对群落中物种共存机制和多度分布提出不同于传统生态位理论的另一种解释:由处于同一营养级的物种构成的群落中,不同物种的个体间在生态学上是等价的;物种多度的分布主要决定于随机过程,如物种灭绝和物种迁入/新物种分化之间的动态平衡。对于中性理论模型是否可以准确预测物种多度分布一直存在不小的争论。本文对生长在天目山地区的湿地草本植物冠层的昆虫群落进行取样调查,分别采用中性理论模型和对数正态模型预测昆虫多度分布。采用置信区间、拟合优度检验和卡方检验等方法验证中性理论的预测。中性模型拟合的基本多样性指数θ=5.89,迁移率m=0.208 8。实测物种多度数据全部落入中性模型预测的95%置信区间内,说明中性模型预测的多度分布与实测数据基本吻合。Pearson相关性检验、Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验和卡方检验的结果表明,中性最优拟合曲线(200次中性模型模拟的平均值)的拟合优度与对数正态模型很接近,但中性理论模型的预测结果只在4%～14%的情况下(中性模型模拟200次)优于对数正态模型。因此,中性理论模型可以较好地预测天目山湿地草本植物冠层中的昆虫群落的多度分布情况,但其拟合优度并不优于对数正态模型。展开更多
文摘Five principal sources of uncertainty in quantitative mineral resource estimation are listed and illustrated by means of a simple example (mosaic model) and a case history study for large copper deposits in the Abitibi area of the Canadian Shield.Abitibi copper potential originally was estimated on the basis of 1968 estimates of production and reserves totalling 3.12 Mt Cu.This prognostication now could be evaluated on the basis of 2008 copper production and reserves totalling 9.50 Mt Cu.An earlier hindsight study performed on the basis of 1977 data (totalling 5.23 Mt Cu) showed seven new discoveries occurring either in the immediate vicinities of known deposits or on broad regional copper anomalies predicted from the 1968 inputs.By 1977,the global geographic distribution pattern of large copper deposits in the Abitibi area had stabilized.During the next 30 years,new copper was essentially found close to existing deposits,much of it deeper down in the Earths crust.In this paper,uncertainties associated with copper ore tonnage are analyzed by comparison of 2008 data with 1968 data using (a) log-log plots of size versus rank,and (b) lognormal QQ-plots.Straight lines fitted by least squares on these plots show that 1968 slopes provide good estimates of 2008 slopes but 1968 intercepts are much less than 2008 intercepts.In each linear log-weight versus log-rank plot,the slope is related to fractal dimension of a Pareto frequency distribution,and in a lognormal QQ-plot it is determined by logarithmic variance.The difference between 2008 and 1968 intercepts represents the increase in copper ore production and reserves from 1968 to 2008.The Pareto model fits actual copper and massive sulphides increase over the past 40 years better than the lognormal frequency distribution model for 10 km×10 km cells on favorable environments in the Abitibi area.
文摘生物多样性中性理论(Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity)对群落中物种共存机制和多度分布提出不同于传统生态位理论的另一种解释:由处于同一营养级的物种构成的群落中,不同物种的个体间在生态学上是等价的;物种多度的分布主要决定于随机过程,如物种灭绝和物种迁入/新物种分化之间的动态平衡。对于中性理论模型是否可以准确预测物种多度分布一直存在不小的争论。本文对生长在天目山地区的湿地草本植物冠层的昆虫群落进行取样调查,分别采用中性理论模型和对数正态模型预测昆虫多度分布。采用置信区间、拟合优度检验和卡方检验等方法验证中性理论的预测。中性模型拟合的基本多样性指数θ=5.89,迁移率m=0.208 8。实测物种多度数据全部落入中性模型预测的95%置信区间内,说明中性模型预测的多度分布与实测数据基本吻合。Pearson相关性检验、Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验和卡方检验的结果表明,中性最优拟合曲线(200次中性模型模拟的平均值)的拟合优度与对数正态模型很接近,但中性理论模型的预测结果只在4%～14%的情况下(中性模型模拟200次)优于对数正态模型。因此,中性理论模型可以较好地预测天目山湿地草本植物冠层中的昆虫群落的多度分布情况,但其拟合优度并不优于对数正态模型。
文摘为探索高速公路出口事故发生的关键诱因,依托美国佛罗里达州24条高速公路上405个出口匝道的历史事故和道路交通数据,验证了出口匝道事故服从于对数正态分布.以匝道交通量、匝道长度和设计一致性(分别以平均半径、曲率变化率、运行速度差和运行速度变化率度量)为解释变量,以2004—2006年间事故数为因变量,建立了4个泊松对数正态事故预测模型,其中以速度变化率表征设计一致性的事故预测模型具有最好的拟合度.基于最优拟合度模型的弹性分析表明,运行速度变化率及匝道长度为关键因素;基于安全考虑,出口匝道速度变化率宜控制在20%以内,出口匝道极限最小长度不宜小于200 m,一般最小长度不宜小于400 m.
