Earthquake prediction thus far has proven to be a very difficult task, but changes in situ stress appear to offer a viable approach for forecasting large earthquakes in Tibet and perhaps other continental regions. Hig...Earthquake prediction thus far has proven to be a very difficult task, but changes in situ stress appear to offer a viable approach for forecasting large earthquakes in Tibet and perhaps other continental regions. High stress anomalies formed along active faults before large earthquakes and disappeared soon after the earthquakes occurred in the Tibetan Plateau. Principle stress increased up to ~2 -?5 times higher than background stress to form high stress anomalies along causative faults before the Ms 8.1 West Kunlun Pass earthquake in November 2001, Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in May 2008, Ms 6.6 Nimu earthquake in October 2009, Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake in April 2010 and the Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake in April 2013. Stress near the epicenters rapidly increased 0.10 - 0.12 MPa over 45 days, ~8 months before the Ms 6.6 Nimu earthquake occurred. The high principle stress anomalies decreased quickly to the normal stress state in ~8 -?12 months after the Ms 8.1 West Kunlun Pass and the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquakes. These high stress anomalies and their demise appear directly related to the immediate stress rise along a fault prior to the earthquakes and the release during the event. Thus, the stress rise appears to be a viable precursor in prediction of large continental earthquakes as in the Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
This paper studies the imminent anomalies observed by the Sacks volume strainmeter in Erzhangying station and Tiantanghe station before 80 earthquakes with Ms≥ 7. 0 which took place from January 2011 to April 2014 al...This paper studies the imminent anomalies observed by the Sacks volume strainmeter in Erzhangying station and Tiantanghe station before 80 earthquakes with Ms≥ 7. 0 which took place from January 2011 to April 2014 all over the world. Then, preconditions for anomaly identification are put forward for complex earthquake cases. Statistical results show that volume strain observation has a better earthquake reflecting ability for earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 7. 0 and epicentral distance within 8000kin. In addition, these results also reflect that the volume strain observation can better reflect precursory anomalies of such earthquakes. Based on categorization and description of those anomalies, we divide the anomalies into three types, that is, earth tide distortion type, abrupt change type and slow earthquake type. Furthermore, the paper makes a statistical analysis of these types and preliminarily discusses their mechanical properties as well. According to research, volume strain anomaly has an indicative significance to future strong earthquakes in the world.展开更多
In this paper,we introduce the tectonic setting,historical earthquake focal mechanisms and geodynamic environment of Tienshan and its neighboring regions, and draw a conclusion that large earthquakes in the Tienshan s...In this paper,we introduce the tectonic setting,historical earthquake focal mechanisms and geodynamic environment of Tienshan and its neighboring regions, and draw a conclusion that large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are governed mainly by the pushing from Hindu Kush-Pamir syntax. Secondly,the relationship of large earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir region and the Tienshan seismic zone is investigated,and synchronization features are found existing in the grouped large earthquakes between the large earthquakes in two regions. The relationship between intermediate-focus large earthquakes in Hindu Kush-Pamir and shallow large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone is also discussed. The same synchronization characteristics are found,and the intensity and frequency of intermediate-focus earthquakes are fiercer, while large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are more intense,with a wider distribution range. The above results confirm the geodynamic correlativity between Hindu Kush-Pamir and the Tienshan seismic zone from the viewpoint of seismicity.展开更多
Seismic coda wave is the tail portion of the earthquake record after main arrivals.Studies on the coda usually focus on high-frequency data within several hours after regional events and attribute them to the scatteri...Seismic coda wave is the tail portion of the earthquake record after main arrivals.Studies on the coda usually focus on high-frequency data within several hours after regional events and attribute them to the scattering effect of the heterogeneities inside the earth.Here,we use records of seven large earthquakes at globally distributed seismic stations to examine the decay of long-period(100 s to 300 s)coda in the time window of 10,000 s to 140,000 s after the origin time and fit it with a statistical model.The geometric spreading effect in the estimated initial energy and a locationindependent equivalent attenuation coefficient indicate that the long-period coda energy is less affected by the heterogeneity-induced scattering effect than that of shorterperiod coda.The coda energy can reach the earth’s inner core and can be explained by a 1D earth model,making it more effective for constraining the global attenuation model.It also has the potential to determine the magnitudes of large earthquakes and to explore the interior of planetary bodies.展开更多
Based on the statistical results of the relationship between the large earthquakes surrounding Xinjiang and moderate earthquakes within Xinjiang since 1950,this article calculates the Coulomb failure stress change pro...Based on the statistical results of the relationship between the large earthquakes surrounding Xinjiang and moderate earthquakes within Xinjiang since 1950,this article calculates the Coulomb failure stress change produced by the three groups of large earthquakes surrounding Xinjiang during the large earthquake active period outside Xinjiang and the quiet period inside Xinjiang from 1976 to 2007,and analyzes Xinjiang's moderate earthquake activity features in the three years after the large earthquakes surrounding Xinjiang. It then discusses the influence of large earthquake activity surrounding Xinjiang on seismic activity within Xinjiang. The research results show that the large earthquake activity surrounding Xinjiang may to a certain extent slow down the preparation process of moderate earthquakes in Xinjiang.展开更多
As revealed by field investigations,the co-seismic surface rupture zone of the 2010 MS7.1 Yushu earthquake,Qinghai is a characteristic sinistral strike-slip feature consisting of three distinct sinistral primary ruptu...As revealed by field investigations,the co-seismic surface rupture zone of the 2010 MS7.1 Yushu earthquake,Qinghai is a characteristic sinistral strike-slip feature consisting of three distinct sinistral primary ruptures,with an overall strike of 310°-320° and a total length of 31 km.In addition,an approximately 2-km-long en-echelon tensile fissure zone was found east of Longbao Town;if this site is taken as the north end of the rupture zone,then the rupture had a total length of ～51 km.The surface rupture zone is composed of a series of fissures arranged in an en-echelon or alternating relationship between compressive bulges and tensile fissures,with a measured maximum horizontal displacement of 1.8 m.The surface rupture zone extends along the mapped Garzê-Yushu Fault,which implicates it as the seismogenic fault for this earthquake.Historically,a few earthquakes with a magnitude of about 7 have occurred along the fault,and additionally traces of paleoearthquakes are evident that characterize the short-period recurrence interval of large earthquakes here.Similar to the seismogenic process of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,the Yushu earthquake is also due to the stress accumulation and release on the block boundaries resulting from the eastward expansion of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.However,in contrast with the Wenchuan earthquake,the Yushu earthquake had a sinistral strike-slip mechanism resulting from the uneven eastward extrusion of the Baryan Har and Sichuan-Yunnan fault blocks.展开更多
文摘Earthquake prediction thus far has proven to be a very difficult task, but changes in situ stress appear to offer a viable approach for forecasting large earthquakes in Tibet and perhaps other continental regions. High stress anomalies formed along active faults before large earthquakes and disappeared soon after the earthquakes occurred in the Tibetan Plateau. Principle stress increased up to ~2 -?5 times higher than background stress to form high stress anomalies along causative faults before the Ms 8.1 West Kunlun Pass earthquake in November 2001, Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in May 2008, Ms 6.6 Nimu earthquake in October 2009, Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake in April 2010 and the Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake in April 2013. Stress near the epicenters rapidly increased 0.10 - 0.12 MPa over 45 days, ~8 months before the Ms 6.6 Nimu earthquake occurred. The high principle stress anomalies decreased quickly to the normal stress state in ~8 -?12 months after the Ms 8.1 West Kunlun Pass and the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquakes. These high stress anomalies and their demise appear directly related to the immediate stress rise along a fault prior to the earthquakes and the release during the event. Thus, the stress rise appears to be a viable precursor in prediction of large continental earthquakes as in the Tibetan Plateau.
基金Combined project of monitoring,prediction and research of China Earthquake Administration entitled "Statistical study on the earthquake cases of imminent anomaly in Sacks volume strain measurements(154201)""Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research of Institute of Earthquake Science,CEA(2012IES010202)""Research on Regional Tectonic Stability for the Dateng Gorge Water Conservancy Hub Project Site(880456)"
文摘This paper studies the imminent anomalies observed by the Sacks volume strainmeter in Erzhangying station and Tiantanghe station before 80 earthquakes with Ms≥ 7. 0 which took place from January 2011 to April 2014 all over the world. Then, preconditions for anomaly identification are put forward for complex earthquake cases. Statistical results show that volume strain observation has a better earthquake reflecting ability for earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 7. 0 and epicentral distance within 8000kin. In addition, these results also reflect that the volume strain observation can better reflect precursory anomalies of such earthquakes. Based on categorization and description of those anomalies, we divide the anomalies into three types, that is, earth tide distortion type, abrupt change type and slow earthquake type. Furthermore, the paper makes a statistical analysis of these types and preliminarily discusses their mechanical properties as well. According to research, volume strain anomaly has an indicative significance to future strong earthquakes in the world.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Key Technology R&D Program(2012BAK19B01-04)the Special Fund of Youth Working Group,Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration
文摘In this paper,we introduce the tectonic setting,historical earthquake focal mechanisms and geodynamic environment of Tienshan and its neighboring regions, and draw a conclusion that large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are governed mainly by the pushing from Hindu Kush-Pamir syntax. Secondly,the relationship of large earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir region and the Tienshan seismic zone is investigated,and synchronization features are found existing in the grouped large earthquakes between the large earthquakes in two regions. The relationship between intermediate-focus large earthquakes in Hindu Kush-Pamir and shallow large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone is also discussed. The same synchronization characteristics are found,and the intensity and frequency of intermediate-focus earthquakes are fiercer, while large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are more intense,with a wider distribution range. The above results confirm the geodynamic correlativity between Hindu Kush-Pamir and the Tienshan seismic zone from the viewpoint of seismicity.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1939204).
文摘Seismic coda wave is the tail portion of the earthquake record after main arrivals.Studies on the coda usually focus on high-frequency data within several hours after regional events and attribute them to the scattering effect of the heterogeneities inside the earth.Here,we use records of seven large earthquakes at globally distributed seismic stations to examine the decay of long-period(100 s to 300 s)coda in the time window of 10,000 s to 140,000 s after the origin time and fit it with a statistical model.The geometric spreading effect in the estimated initial energy and a locationindependent equivalent attenuation coefficient indicate that the long-period coda energy is less affected by the heterogeneity-induced scattering effect than that of shorterperiod coda.The coda energy can reach the earth’s inner core and can be explained by a 1D earth model,making it more effective for constraining the global attenuation model.It also has the potential to determine the magnitudes of large earthquakes and to explore the interior of planetary bodies.
基金sponsored the National Key TechnologyR&D Program (2006BAC 01B03-04-02),China
文摘Based on the statistical results of the relationship between the large earthquakes surrounding Xinjiang and moderate earthquakes within Xinjiang since 1950,this article calculates the Coulomb failure stress change produced by the three groups of large earthquakes surrounding Xinjiang during the large earthquake active period outside Xinjiang and the quiet period inside Xinjiang from 1976 to 2007,and analyzes Xinjiang's moderate earthquake activity features in the three years after the large earthquakes surrounding Xinjiang. It then discusses the influence of large earthquake activity surrounding Xinjiang on seismic activity within Xinjiang. The research results show that the large earthquake activity surrounding Xinjiang may to a certain extent slow down the preparation process of moderate earthquakes in Xinjiang.
基金supported by the management and other functions of the Institute of Geology,CEA
文摘As revealed by field investigations,the co-seismic surface rupture zone of the 2010 MS7.1 Yushu earthquake,Qinghai is a characteristic sinistral strike-slip feature consisting of three distinct sinistral primary ruptures,with an overall strike of 310°-320° and a total length of 31 km.In addition,an approximately 2-km-long en-echelon tensile fissure zone was found east of Longbao Town;if this site is taken as the north end of the rupture zone,then the rupture had a total length of ～51 km.The surface rupture zone is composed of a series of fissures arranged in an en-echelon or alternating relationship between compressive bulges and tensile fissures,with a measured maximum horizontal displacement of 1.8 m.The surface rupture zone extends along the mapped Garzê-Yushu Fault,which implicates it as the seismogenic fault for this earthquake.Historically,a few earthquakes with a magnitude of about 7 have occurred along the fault,and additionally traces of paleoearthquakes are evident that characterize the short-period recurrence interval of large earthquakes here.Similar to the seismogenic process of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,the Yushu earthquake is also due to the stress accumulation and release on the block boundaries resulting from the eastward expansion of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.However,in contrast with the Wenchuan earthquake,the Yushu earthquake had a sinistral strike-slip mechanism resulting from the uneven eastward extrusion of the Baryan Har and Sichuan-Yunnan fault blocks.
