The association between meteorological factors and infectious diarrhea has been widely studied in many countries.However,investigation among children under 5 years old in Jiangsu,China remains quite limited.Data inclu...The association between meteorological factors and infectious diarrhea has been widely studied in many countries.However,investigation among children under 5 years old in Jiangsu,China remains quite limited.Data including infectious diarrhea cases among children under five years old and daily meteorological indexes in Jiangsu,China from 2015 to 2019 were collected.The lag-effects up to 21 days of daily maximum temperature(Tmax)on infectious diarrhea were explored using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)approach.The cases number of infectious diarrhea was significantly associated with seasonal variation of meteorological factors,and the burden of disease mainly occurred among children aged 0-2 years old.Moreover,when the reference value was set at 16.7°C,Tmax had a significant lag-effect on cases of infectious diarrhea among children under 5 years old in Jiangsu Province,which was increased remarkably in cold weather with the highest risk at 8℃.The results of DLNM analysis implicated that the lag-effect of Tmax varied among the 13 cities in Jiangsu and had significant differences in 8 cities.The highest risk of Tmax was presented at 5 lag days in Huaian with a maximum RR of 1.18(95% CI:1.09,1.29).Suzhou which had the highest number of diarrhea cases(15830 cases),had a maximum RR of 1.04(95%CI:1.03,1.05)on lag 15 days.Tmax is a considerable indicator to predict the epidemic of infectious diarrhea among 13 cities in Jiangsu,which reminds us that in cold seasons,more preventive strategies and measures should be done to prevent infectious diarrhea.展开更多
This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimensio...This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. T = S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T=S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth.展开更多
文摘The association between meteorological factors and infectious diarrhea has been widely studied in many countries.However,investigation among children under 5 years old in Jiangsu,China remains quite limited.Data including infectious diarrhea cases among children under five years old and daily meteorological indexes in Jiangsu,China from 2015 to 2019 were collected.The lag-effects up to 21 days of daily maximum temperature(Tmax)on infectious diarrhea were explored using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)approach.The cases number of infectious diarrhea was significantly associated with seasonal variation of meteorological factors,and the burden of disease mainly occurred among children aged 0-2 years old.Moreover,when the reference value was set at 16.7°C,Tmax had a significant lag-effect on cases of infectious diarrhea among children under 5 years old in Jiangsu Province,which was increased remarkably in cold weather with the highest risk at 8℃.The results of DLNM analysis implicated that the lag-effect of Tmax varied among the 13 cities in Jiangsu and had significant differences in 8 cities.The highest risk of Tmax was presented at 5 lag days in Huaian with a maximum RR of 1.18(95% CI:1.09,1.29).Suzhou which had the highest number of diarrhea cases(15830 cases),had a maximum RR of 1.04(95%CI:1.03,1.05)on lag 15 days.Tmax is a considerable indicator to predict the epidemic of infectious diarrhea among 13 cities in Jiangsu,which reminds us that in cold seasons,more preventive strategies and measures should be done to prevent infectious diarrhea.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences and National Key Technologies R &D Program in the 10th Five-Ycar Plan of china(2001BA901A40)
文摘This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. T = S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T=S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth.
