The paper gives an analysis of the displacement time series before and after the March 11,2011 Ms9.0 east Japan earthquake and co-seismic displacements observed at continuous GPS stations in and around China. The resu...The paper gives an analysis of the displacement time series before and after the March 11,2011 Ms9.0 east Japan earthquake and co-seismic displacements observed at continuous GPS stations in and around China. The results showed a broad-scaled related elastic-rebound process and some premonitory horizontal crustal movements to this earthquake over this vast area.展开更多
Earthquake predictions inChinahave had rare successes but suffered more tragic setbacks since the Xintai earthquake in 1966. They have developed with twists and turns under the influence of the viewpoint that earthqua...Earthquake predictions inChinahave had rare successes but suffered more tragic setbacks since the Xintai earthquake in 1966. They have developed with twists and turns under the influence of the viewpoint that earthquakes are unpredictable etc. Though the Wenchuan earthquake of M8.0 in2008 inChina and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake of M9.0 inJapan were failed to predict, the GPS observations before and after these 2 events have shown that there were precursors to these events and large earthquakes are predictable. Features of different observation techniques, data processing methods are compared and some recent studies on precursory crustal deformations are summarized, so various advantages of GPS technique in monitoring crustal deformation are emphasized. The facts show that anomalies or precursors detected from GPS observations before the great Wenchuan earthquake have been the most remarkable results of explorations on crustal movements and earthquake precursors in China. GPS is in deed an excellent observation technique for earthquake prediction.展开更多
The ionospheric total-electron-content （IGS） network and the VTEC data from the GPS （TEC） data provided by the International GNSS Service reference stations of Crustal Movement Observational Network of China（CM...The ionospheric total-electron-content （IGS） network and the VTEC data from the GPS （TEC） data provided by the International GNSS Service reference stations of Crustal Movement Observational Network of China（CMONC） were processed and statistically analyzed to search for earthquake-related TEC anomalies prior to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Japan. Preliminary results showed that anomalous variations oc- curred 6 - 11 days and 0 - 4 days prior to the earthquake. After considering solar activity, geomagnetic condi- tions, and proximity in space and time to the earthquake, we tentatively concluded that the anomalous increase on March 5 may be related to the earthquake.展开更多
Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating t...Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating the uncertainty and spatial correlation of the loss.This study proposed a new approach for rapidly estimating post-earthquake building loss with reasonable accuracy.The proposed method interpolates ground motion based on the observed ground motion using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation(GMPE)as the weight.It samples the building seismic loss quantile considering the spatial loss correlation that is expressed by Gaussian copula,and kriging is applied to reduce the dimension of direct sampling for estimation speed.The proposed approach was validated using three historical earthquake events in Japan with actual loss reports,and was then applied to predict the building loss amount for the March 2022 Fukushima Mw7.3 earthquake.The proposed method has high potential in future emergency efforts such as search,rescue,and evacuation planning.展开更多
The Tohoku Regional Bureau(TRB) of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(MLIT) performed various actions in response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. The total disaster recove...The Tohoku Regional Bureau(TRB) of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(MLIT) performed various actions in response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. The total disaster recovery and reconstruction period is expected to last for 10 years, of which the first five years are regarded as the concentrated reconstruction period. As of 2013, a majority of the mega projects that involved restoration actions have been completed, which indicates a more effective rate of completion compared with the MLIT projects performed in normal non-disaster situations. This short article explains the management process of the recovery and reconstruction utilized by the TRB—an interorganizational process—from a business process management(BPM) perspective and creates a simple organization construction diagram of the entire process. The study focused on the transactions and actor roles to identify their strengths. The findings indicate the utilization of different operational procedures in some parts of the process, the importance of liaison role, as well as some obstacles. The lessons learned from this analysis can assist managers and researchers in designing and managing restoration processes for future disasters.展开更多
基金supported by the Basic Research Plan of the Institute of Earthquake Science( 02092422)
文摘The paper gives an analysis of the displacement time series before and after the March 11,2011 Ms9.0 east Japan earthquake and co-seismic displacements observed at continuous GPS stations in and around China. The results showed a broad-scaled related elastic-rebound process and some premonitory horizontal crustal movements to this earthquake over this vast area.
文摘Earthquake predictions inChinahave had rare successes but suffered more tragic setbacks since the Xintai earthquake in 1966. They have developed with twists and turns under the influence of the viewpoint that earthquakes are unpredictable etc. Though the Wenchuan earthquake of M8.0 in2008 inChina and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake of M9.0 inJapan were failed to predict, the GPS observations before and after these 2 events have shown that there were precursors to these events and large earthquakes are predictable. Features of different observation techniques, data processing methods are compared and some recent studies on precursory crustal deformations are summarized, so various advantages of GPS technique in monitoring crustal deformation are emphasized. The facts show that anomalies or precursors detected from GPS observations before the great Wenchuan earthquake have been the most remarkable results of explorations on crustal movements and earthquake precursors in China. GPS is in deed an excellent observation technique for earthquake prediction.
基金supported by the Special Foundation for Seismic Reserch( 201108004)Director Foundation of the Institute of Seismology,China Earthquake Administration( IS200916012,IS200926039)
文摘The ionospheric total-electron-content （IGS） network and the VTEC data from the GPS （TEC） data provided by the International GNSS Service reference stations of Crustal Movement Observational Network of China（CMONC） were processed and statistically analyzed to search for earthquake-related TEC anomalies prior to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Japan. Preliminary results showed that anomalous variations oc- curred 6 - 11 days and 0 - 4 days prior to the earthquake. After considering solar activity, geomagnetic condi- tions, and proximity in space and time to the earthquake, we tentatively concluded that the anomalous increase on March 5 may be related to the earthquake.
基金supported by the Scientific Research Fund of the Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant No.2021B09)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51978634)。
文摘Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating the uncertainty and spatial correlation of the loss.This study proposed a new approach for rapidly estimating post-earthquake building loss with reasonable accuracy.The proposed method interpolates ground motion based on the observed ground motion using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation(GMPE)as the weight.It samples the building seismic loss quantile considering the spatial loss correlation that is expressed by Gaussian copula,and kriging is applied to reduce the dimension of direct sampling for estimation speed.The proposed approach was validated using three historical earthquake events in Japan with actual loss reports,and was then applied to predict the building loss amount for the March 2022 Fukushima Mw7.3 earthquake.The proposed method has high potential in future emergency efforts such as search,rescue,and evacuation planning.
文摘The Tohoku Regional Bureau(TRB) of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(MLIT) performed various actions in response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. The total disaster recovery and reconstruction period is expected to last for 10 years, of which the first five years are regarded as the concentrated reconstruction period. As of 2013, a majority of the mega projects that involved restoration actions have been completed, which indicates a more effective rate of completion compared with the MLIT projects performed in normal non-disaster situations. This short article explains the management process of the recovery and reconstruction utilized by the TRB—an interorganizational process—from a business process management(BPM) perspective and creates a simple organization construction diagram of the entire process. The study focused on the transactions and actor roles to identify their strengths. The findings indicate the utilization of different operational procedures in some parts of the process, the importance of liaison role, as well as some obstacles. The lessons learned from this analysis can assist managers and researchers in designing and managing restoration processes for future disasters.
