Load prediction and power prediction uncertainties are inevitable aspects of a virtual power plant(VPP).In power system economic dispatch(ED)modeling,the interval is used to describe prediction uncertainties.An ED mod...Load prediction and power prediction uncertainties are inevitable aspects of a virtual power plant(VPP).In power system economic dispatch(ED)modeling,the interval is used to describe prediction uncertainties.An ED model with interval uncertainty is established in this paper.The probability degree definition is adopted to convert the interval-based economic dispatch model into a deterministic model for the purposes of solving the modeling problem.Simulation tests are performed on a 10-machine system using professional optimization software(LINGO).The simulation results verify the validity of the proposed interval-based scheme for the economic dispatch of a power system with VPP.展开更多
首先采用风险价值(value at risk,VaR)方法根据历史数据计算出各月峰谷时段用电量的历史序列,并在一定的置信度下对谷段和峰段的用电量进行预测;然后采用区间数学方法构建了风险评估模型,以便对供电公司实行峰谷分时电价的风险进行衡量...首先采用风险价值(value at risk,VaR)方法根据历史数据计算出各月峰谷时段用电量的历史序列,并在一定的置信度下对谷段和峰段的用电量进行预测;然后采用区间数学方法构建了风险评估模型,以便对供电公司实行峰谷分时电价的风险进行衡量;最后采用该模型分析了某供电局的历史数据并衡量了其实施峰谷分时电价的风险,结果表明该模型不仅是有效的,而且还可以使需求侧管理更具可操作性。展开更多
基金supported by the State Grid Corporation of China Project:Study on Key Technologies for Power and Frequency Control of System with Source-Grid-Load Interactions,and sponsored by NUPTSF(under Grant XJKY14018).
文摘Load prediction and power prediction uncertainties are inevitable aspects of a virtual power plant(VPP).In power system economic dispatch(ED)modeling,the interval is used to describe prediction uncertainties.An ED model with interval uncertainty is established in this paper.The probability degree definition is adopted to convert the interval-based economic dispatch model into a deterministic model for the purposes of solving the modeling problem.Simulation tests are performed on a 10-machine system using professional optimization software(LINGO).The simulation results verify the validity of the proposed interval-based scheme for the economic dispatch of a power system with VPP.
文摘首先采用风险价值(value at risk,VaR)方法根据历史数据计算出各月峰谷时段用电量的历史序列,并在一定的置信度下对谷段和峰段的用电量进行预测;然后采用区间数学方法构建了风险评估模型,以便对供电公司实行峰谷分时电价的风险进行衡量;最后采用该模型分析了某供电局的历史数据并衡量了其实施峰谷分时电价的风险,结果表明该模型不仅是有效的,而且还可以使需求侧管理更具可操作性。
