The interannual variation of Asian winter (NE) monsoon and its influence is studied using the long-term integration of Max-Plank Institute ECHAM3(T42 L19) model. The simulation well reproduces the main features of th...The interannual variation of Asian winter (NE) monsoon and its influence is studied using the long-term integration of Max-Plank Institute ECHAM3(T42 L19) model. The simulation well reproduces the main features of the climatological mean Asian winter monsoon and shows pronounced difference of atmospheric circulation between strong and weak winter monsoon and for the consecutive seasons to follow. Most striking is the appearance and persistence of an anomalous cyclonic flow over the western Pacific and enhanced Walker circulation for strong winter monsoon in agreement with the observation. The contrast in summer rainfall patterns of both East China and India can also be discerned in the simulation. Comparison of three sets of experiments with different SST shows that the forcing from the anomalies of global SST makes a major contribution to the interannual variability of Asiao winter monsoon and, in particular, to the interseasonal persistence of the salient features of circulation. The SSTA over the tropical western Pacific also plays an important part of its own in modulating the Walker circulation and the extratropical flow patterns. The apparent effect of strong NE monsoon is to enhance the convection over the tropical western Pacific. This effect, on the one hand, leads to a strengthening of SE trades to the east and extra westerly flow to the west, thus favorable to maintaining a specific pattern of SSTA. On the other hand, the thermal forcing associated with the SSTA acts to strengthen the extratropical flow pattern which is, in turn, conducive to stronger monsoon activity. The result seems to suggest a certain self-sustained regime in the air-sea system, which is characterized by two related interactions, namely the air-sea and tropical-extratropical interactions with intermittent outburst of NE cold surge as linkage. There is a connection between the strength of the Asian winter monsoon and the precipitation over China in the following summer. Links between these two variabilities are mainly throug展开更多
By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal, interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice mode...By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal, interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model(OSU/NCC).Contrasts between forecasts by the OSU/ NCC and the observations show that the model has a certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for summer over China in all of the three different time scales.And it indicates that the interseasonal prediction is the best among the forecasts of three scales.It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.展开更多
The 500-hPa geopotential height data used in this paper are from NCEP/NCAR data set for the period from 1979 to 1996 (from March to July). Using pentad average, we define the intensity, westernmost ridge point and mea...The 500-hPa geopotential height data used in this paper are from NCEP/NCAR data set for the period from 1979 to 1996 (from March to July). Using pentad average, we define the intensity, westernmost ridge point and mean latitude of the subtropical high ridge. Then the wavelet transform and EOF analysis are performed. It is found that there mainly exist three interseasonal abrupt change processes, which correspond to the onset time of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM), the beginning and the end of the Mei-yu respectively. The interannual variation of the subtropical high in late spring and early summer presents quasi-4-year and 8-year periods.展开更多
对照实况降水及天气背景资料,应用赤峰站、通辽站、呼和浩特站以及海拉尔站的多普勒雷达产品资料,对2012年11月初连续出现在内蒙古的2次明显降水天气过程进行较为详细的分析,一方面,为了提高多普勒天气雷达产品资料对雨雪转换及降雪天...对照实况降水及天气背景资料,应用赤峰站、通辽站、呼和浩特站以及海拉尔站的多普勒雷达产品资料,对2012年11月初连续出现在内蒙古的2次明显降水天气过程进行较为详细的分析,一方面,为了提高多普勒天气雷达产品资料对雨雪转换及降雪天气过程预报的分析、运用能力;另一方面,也在探讨新一代雷达产品对雨雪转换的可预报性。结果表明:降雪过程中的雷达回波特征揭示出2次降雪过程均为稳定性降雪过程;降雪回波强度基本小于35 d Bz,大都在30 d Bz以下,高度在5 km左右;回波强度梯度小,回波顶高较低;强降雪时段"牛眼"型结构明显,存在低空急流;降雪期间风随高度顺转,为暖区降雪;雨或雨夹雪期间有明显的零度层亮带,亮带距测站近,高度低;由雨或雨夹雪转为降雪后,回波强度有所减弱,回波顶高有所降低。展开更多
文摘The interannual variation of Asian winter (NE) monsoon and its influence is studied using the long-term integration of Max-Plank Institute ECHAM3(T42 L19) model. The simulation well reproduces the main features of the climatological mean Asian winter monsoon and shows pronounced difference of atmospheric circulation between strong and weak winter monsoon and for the consecutive seasons to follow. Most striking is the appearance and persistence of an anomalous cyclonic flow over the western Pacific and enhanced Walker circulation for strong winter monsoon in agreement with the observation. The contrast in summer rainfall patterns of both East China and India can also be discerned in the simulation. Comparison of three sets of experiments with different SST shows that the forcing from the anomalies of global SST makes a major contribution to the interannual variability of Asiao winter monsoon and, in particular, to the interseasonal persistence of the salient features of circulation. The SSTA over the tropical western Pacific also plays an important part of its own in modulating the Walker circulation and the extratropical flow patterns. The apparent effect of strong NE monsoon is to enhance the convection over the tropical western Pacific. This effect, on the one hand, leads to a strengthening of SE trades to the east and extra westerly flow to the west, thus favorable to maintaining a specific pattern of SSTA. On the other hand, the thermal forcing associated with the SSTA acts to strengthen the extratropical flow pattern which is, in turn, conducive to stronger monsoon activity. The result seems to suggest a certain self-sustained regime in the air-sea system, which is characterized by two related interactions, namely the air-sea and tropical-extratropical interactions with intermittent outburst of NE cold surge as linkage. There is a connection between the strength of the Asian winter monsoon and the precipitation over China in the following summer. Links between these two variabilities are mainly throug
基金This research was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences (G1998040900-Patr 1)the Operational Fund of National Climate Center.
文摘By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal, interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model(OSU/NCC).Contrasts between forecasts by the OSU/ NCC and the observations show that the model has a certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for summer over China in all of the three different time scales.And it indicates that the interseasonal prediction is the best among the forecasts of three scales.It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.
基金South China Sea monsoon experiment study the Scaling Project A of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China The first part of Key Foundamental Research Plan of China (G1998040900)
文摘The 500-hPa geopotential height data used in this paper are from NCEP/NCAR data set for the period from 1979 to 1996 (from March to July). Using pentad average, we define the intensity, westernmost ridge point and mean latitude of the subtropical high ridge. Then the wavelet transform and EOF analysis are performed. It is found that there mainly exist three interseasonal abrupt change processes, which correspond to the onset time of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM), the beginning and the end of the Mei-yu respectively. The interannual variation of the subtropical high in late spring and early summer presents quasi-4-year and 8-year periods.
文摘对照实况降水及天气背景资料,应用赤峰站、通辽站、呼和浩特站以及海拉尔站的多普勒雷达产品资料,对2012年11月初连续出现在内蒙古的2次明显降水天气过程进行较为详细的分析,一方面,为了提高多普勒天气雷达产品资料对雨雪转换及降雪天气过程预报的分析、运用能力;另一方面,也在探讨新一代雷达产品对雨雪转换的可预报性。结果表明:降雪过程中的雷达回波特征揭示出2次降雪过程均为稳定性降雪过程;降雪回波强度基本小于35 d Bz,大都在30 d Bz以下,高度在5 km左右;回波强度梯度小,回波顶高较低;强降雪时段"牛眼"型结构明显,存在低空急流;降雪期间风随高度顺转,为暖区降雪;雨或雨夹雪期间有明显的零度层亮带,亮带距测站近,高度低;由雨或雨夹雪转为降雪后,回波强度有所减弱,回波顶高有所降低。
