We identify two interrelated but independent species of microcracks with different origins and different distributions. One species is the classic high-stress microcracks identified in laboratory stress-cells associat...We identify two interrelated but independent species of microcracks with different origins and different distributions. One species is the classic high-stress microcracks identified in laboratory stress-cells associated with acoustic emissions as microcracks open with increasing stress. The other species is the low-stress distributions of closely-spaced stress-aligned fluid-saturated microcracks that observations of shear-wave splitting(SWS) demonstrate pervade almost all in situ rocks in the upper crust, the lower crust, and the uppermost 400 km of the mantle. On some occasions these two sets of microcracks may be interrelated and similar(hence ‘species') but they typically have fundamentally-different properties, different distributions, and different implications. The importance for hydrocarbon exploration and recovery is that SWS in hydrocarbon reservoirs monitors crack alignments and preferred directions of fluid-flow. The importance for earthquake seismology is that SWS above small earthquakes monitors the effects of increasing stress on the pervasive low-stress microcrack distributions so that stress-accumulation before, possibly distant, earthquakes can be recognised and impending earthquakes stress-forecast.展开更多
We measure spatio-temporal variations of seismic velocity changes in Salton Sea Geothermal Field,California based on cross correlations of daily seismic traces recorded by a borehole seismic network from December 2007...We measure spatio-temporal variations of seismic velocity changes in Salton Sea Geothermal Field,California based on cross correlations of daily seismic traces recorded by a borehole seismic network from December 2007 to January 2014.We find clear co-seismic velocity reductions during the 2010 M 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah,Mexico earthquake at~100 km further south,followed by long-term recoveries.The co-seismic reductions are larger with longer post-seismic recoveries in higher frequency bands,indicating that material damage and healing process mostly occurred in the shallow depth.In addition,the co-seismic velocity reductions are larger for ray paths outside the active fluid injection/extraction regions.The ray paths inside injection/extraction regions are associated with smaller co-seismic reductions,but subtle long-term velocity increases.We also build 3D transient water flow models based on monthly injection/extraction rates,and find correlations between several water flow parameters and co-seismic velocity reductions.We interpret the relative lack of co-seismic velocity changes within the geothermal region as unclogging of fracture network due to persistent fluid flows of geothermal production.The long-term velocity increase is likely associated with the ground water depletion and subsidence due to net production.展开更多
Songyuan is the most earthquake prone area in northeast China.Since 2006,earthquakes have occurred in the area in the form of swarms,with a maximum magnitude of M_L5.8.There is much controversy about the cause of the ...Songyuan is the most earthquake prone area in northeast China.Since 2006,earthquakes have occurred in the area in the form of swarms,with a maximum magnitude of M_L5.8.There is much controversy about the cause of the Songyuan earthquakes.We attempted to determine the cause using a three-dimensional electrical conductivity structure inverted from a regional network of magnetotelluric data in the Songyuan area.The L-BFGS inversion method was applied,with a fullimpedance tensor data set used as the inversion input.Combined with an evaluation of the earthquake locations,the resistivity model revealed a northeast-oriented hidden fault running through the Songyuan earthquake area(SEA),which was speculated to be the preexisting Fuyu-Zhaodong Fault(FZF).Our resistivity model also found an apparent lithospheric low-resistivity anomaly beneath the earthquake area,which breached the high-resistivity lithospheric mantle and stalled at the base of the crust.A petrophysical analysis showed that this lower crustal low-resistivity anomaly was most likely attributed to hydrated partial melting,which could release water into the lower crust during later magma emplacements.While weakening the strength of the FZF,these ascending fluids also increased the pore pressure in the fault,further reducing the shear strength of the fault.Shear stress action(a fault strike component of the east-west regional compress),together with possible near-surface disturbances,may drive the fault to slip and trigger the earthquakes in Songyuan.It is possible that the continuous replenishment of fluids from the deeper mantle forces the Songyuan earthquakes into the form of swarms.We infer that the Songyuan earthquakes could be attributed to a combination of preexisting faults,regional stress,and deep fluids associated with plate subduction,and near surface disturbances might induce the earthquakes in advance.The Songyuan earthquakes are inherently induced earthquakes,fed by deep fluids.展开更多
To investigate the dynamic damage evolution characteristics of bank slopes with serrated structural planes,the shaking table model test and the numerical simulation were utilized.The main findings indicate that under ...To investigate the dynamic damage evolution characteristics of bank slopes with serrated structural planes,the shaking table model test and the numerical simulation were utilized.The main findings indicate that under continuous seismic loads,the deformation of the bank slope increased,particularly around the hydro-fluctuation belt,accompanying by the pore water pressure rising.The soil pressure increased and then decreased showed dynamic variation characteristics.As the undulation angle of the serrated structural planes increased(30°, 45°, and 60°),the failure modes were climbing,climbinggnawing,and gnawing respectively.The first-order natural frequency was used to calculate the damage degree(Dd)of the bank slope.During microseisms and small earthquakes,it was discovered that the evolution of Dd followed the“S”shape,which was fitted by a logic function.Additionally,the quadratic function was used to fit the Dd during moderately strong earthquakes.Through the numerical simulation,the variation characteristics of safety factors(Sf)for slopes with serrated structural planes and slopes with straight structural planes were compared.Under continuous seismic loads,the Sf of slopes with straight structural planes reduce stalely,whereas the Sf for slopes with serrated structural planes was greater than the former and the reduction rate was increasing.展开更多
The 2019 M_(S)6.0 Changning earthquake occurred in the tectonically stable Sichuan Basin,where the epicenter and its adjacent areas are important shale gas and salt mine production fields,resulting in hot debates on w...The 2019 M_(S)6.0 Changning earthquake occurred in the tectonically stable Sichuan Basin,where the epicenter and its adjacent areas are important shale gas and salt mine production fields,resulting in hot debates on whether the seismogenic mechanism of the 2019 Changning earthquake is related to human activities.As source characteristics and fluid pressure can provide important constraints on whether an earthquake is induced,weinvestigate the seismogenic mechanisms of the mainshock and 9 MW≥4.0 aftershocks.In overall,the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks are characterized by relatively shallow focal depths(1‒4 km)and significant non-double-couple(non-DC)components.However,the mainshock and the aftershocks differ in two aspects:(1)the compensated-linear-vector-dipole components dominate the non-DC components of the mainshock,whereas the isotropic components dominate the most aftershocks;(2)the fluid overpressure of the mainshock is over 30 MPa,whereas the fluid overpressure of the most aftershocks is less than 10 MPa.Thus,we propose that the mainshock is triggered by weakened fault strength with long-term fluid injection,and that its large non-DC components are associated withcomplex rupture processes.Comparatively,the aftershocks may be triggered by postseismic stress transfer by combining the Coulomb failure stress changes in the poroelastic medium.Our results highlight the possible role of fluid in the occurrence of the Changning earthquake sequence.展开更多
We built a three-dimensional model to simulate the disturbance of the stress field near the reverse fault in Zhaziao, Leyi Township owing to hydraulic fracturing. The pore pressure, and shear and normal stresses durin...We built a three-dimensional model to simulate the disturbance of the stress field near the reverse fault in Zhaziao, Leyi Township owing to hydraulic fracturing. The pore pressure, and shear and normal stresses during fracturing are analyzed in detail. Input rock mechanics parameters are taken from laboratory test data of shale samples from the study area. The simulation results suggest that after 16 hours of fluid injection, the pore-pressure variation can activate the reverse fault, i.e., we observe reverse slip, and the shear stress and displacement on the fault plane increase with time. The biggest stress–strain change occurs after one hour of fluid injection and the yield point appears about 0.5 h after injection. To observe the stress evolution in each section, the normal displacement on the boundary is constrained and the fault plane is set as nonpermeable. Thus, the sliding is limited and the shear displacement is only in the scale of millimeters, and the calculated magnitude of the induced earthquakes is between Mw-3.5 and Mw-0.2. The simulation results suggest that fluid water injection results in inhomogeneous fracturing. The main ruptured areas are around the injection positions, whereas the extent of rupturing and cracks in other areas are relatively small. Nevertheless, nonnegligible fault activation is recorded. Sensitivity analysis of the key parameters suggests that the pore pressure is most sensitive to the maximum unbalanced force and the internal friction angle strongly affects the fault slip. Finally, the comparison between the effective normal stress and the maximum and minimum principal stresses on the fault plane explains the fault instability, i.e., the Mohr circle moves towards the left with decreasing radius reduces and intersects the critical slip envelope, and causes the fault to slip.展开更多
In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake...In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology.As for the intense actual demand,the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management.This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects:earthquake occurrence probability,maximum expected magnitude forecasting,seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems.In terms of earthquake occurrence probability,we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index(SI)and hydro-mechanism nucleation.Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid,power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters.For seismic risk analysis,we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model.Furthermore,this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir,critical physical process of runaway rupture,complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect.This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production,seismic hazard mitigation,emergency management and scientific research as a reference.展开更多
Unconventional petroleum development involving large volume fluid injection into horizontal well bores, referred to as hydraulic fracturing (HF, or fracking), began in the Montney Trend of northeast British Columbia, ...Unconventional petroleum development involving large volume fluid injection into horizontal well bores, referred to as hydraulic fracturing (HF, or fracking), began in the Montney Trend of northeast British Columbia, Canada, in 2005, quickly initiating earthquakes. Earthquake frequency increased substantially in the Montney by 2008, in relation to the number of wells fracked and the volume of injected frack water. A spatiotemporal filter was used to associate earthquakes with HF wells. A total of 439 earthquakes (</span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 1.0 - 4.6 (NRCAN catalogue) during 2013-2019 have close association with HF activity, of which 77% are associated with three operators. Fifteen percent of HF wells in the Montney are associated with these earthquakes, while 1.7% of HF wells are associated with </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ≥ 3.0 earthquakes. There are strong linear relationships between the maximum earthquake magnitude each year and the annual volume of injected frack fluid. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ≥ 3.0 earthquakes are associated with large cumulative frack water volumes for antecedent time periods of 1 - 3 years, often with fluid injection by multiple operators. Eighty-seven percent of the Montney </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have associated HF triggering events, but a few are sufficiently distant to be ambiguous. Distances from the induced earthquake epicentres indicate a variety of causal mechanisms are involved. It is concluded that ~60% - 70% of </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ≥ 3.0 earthquakes are induced by hydraulic fracturing. HF-induced earthquakes can be considered in part related to the cumulative development density from multiple proximal operators and cu展开更多
基金This study was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 41174042）.
文摘We identify two interrelated but independent species of microcracks with different origins and different distributions. One species is the classic high-stress microcracks identified in laboratory stress-cells associated with acoustic emissions as microcracks open with increasing stress. The other species is the low-stress distributions of closely-spaced stress-aligned fluid-saturated microcracks that observations of shear-wave splitting(SWS) demonstrate pervade almost all in situ rocks in the upper crust, the lower crust, and the uppermost 400 km of the mantle. On some occasions these two sets of microcracks may be interrelated and similar(hence ‘species') but they typically have fundamentally-different properties, different distributions, and different implications. The importance for hydrocarbon exploration and recovery is that SWS in hydrocarbon reservoirs monitors crack alignments and preferred directions of fluid-flow. The importance for earthquake seismology is that SWS above small earthquakes monitors the effects of increasing stress on the pervasive low-stress microcrack distributions so that stress-accumulation before, possibly distant, earthquakes can be recognised and impending earthquakes stress-forecast.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (project51478368,41272272)financial support from China Scholarship Council (CSC) for one-year research at Georgia Institute of Technology in 2016–2017+2 种基金supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC Contribution No.12647Grant 17230)funded by NSF Cooperative Agreement EAR-1600087&USGS Cooperative Agreement G17AC00047
文摘We measure spatio-temporal variations of seismic velocity changes in Salton Sea Geothermal Field,California based on cross correlations of daily seismic traces recorded by a borehole seismic network from December 2007 to January 2014.We find clear co-seismic velocity reductions during the 2010 M 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah,Mexico earthquake at~100 km further south,followed by long-term recoveries.The co-seismic reductions are larger with longer post-seismic recoveries in higher frequency bands,indicating that material damage and healing process mostly occurred in the shallow depth.In addition,the co-seismic velocity reductions are larger for ray paths outside the active fluid injection/extraction regions.The ray paths inside injection/extraction regions are associated with smaller co-seismic reductions,but subtle long-term velocity increases.We also build 3D transient water flow models based on monthly injection/extraction rates,and find correlations between several water flow parameters and co-seismic velocity reductions.We interpret the relative lack of co-seismic velocity changes within the geothermal region as unclogging of fracture network due to persistent fluid flows of geothermal production.The long-term velocity increase is likely associated with the ground water depletion and subsidence due to net production.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(Grant No.2014AA06A601)the National Project for the Development of Major Scientific Instruments(Grant No.2011YQ05006010)。
文摘Songyuan is the most earthquake prone area in northeast China.Since 2006,earthquakes have occurred in the area in the form of swarms,with a maximum magnitude of M_L5.8.There is much controversy about the cause of the Songyuan earthquakes.We attempted to determine the cause using a three-dimensional electrical conductivity structure inverted from a regional network of magnetotelluric data in the Songyuan area.The L-BFGS inversion method was applied,with a fullimpedance tensor data set used as the inversion input.Combined with an evaluation of the earthquake locations,the resistivity model revealed a northeast-oriented hidden fault running through the Songyuan earthquake area(SEA),which was speculated to be the preexisting Fuyu-Zhaodong Fault(FZF).Our resistivity model also found an apparent lithospheric low-resistivity anomaly beneath the earthquake area,which breached the high-resistivity lithospheric mantle and stalled at the base of the crust.A petrophysical analysis showed that this lower crustal low-resistivity anomaly was most likely attributed to hydrated partial melting,which could release water into the lower crust during later magma emplacements.While weakening the strength of the FZF,these ascending fluids also increased the pore pressure in the fault,further reducing the shear strength of the fault.Shear stress action(a fault strike component of the east-west regional compress),together with possible near-surface disturbances,may drive the fault to slip and trigger the earthquakes in Songyuan.It is possible that the continuous replenishment of fluids from the deeper mantle forces the Songyuan earthquakes into the form of swarms.We infer that the Songyuan earthquakes could be attributed to a combination of preexisting faults,regional stress,and deep fluids associated with plate subduction,and near surface disturbances might induce the earthquakes in advance.The Songyuan earthquakes are inherently induced earthquakes,fed by deep fluids.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41972266)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M730432)+1 种基金the Special Funding for Chongqing Postdoctoral Research Project(No.2022CQBSHTB1010)the Chongqing Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.CSTB2023NSCQBHX0223).
文摘To investigate the dynamic damage evolution characteristics of bank slopes with serrated structural planes,the shaking table model test and the numerical simulation were utilized.The main findings indicate that under continuous seismic loads,the deformation of the bank slope increased,particularly around the hydro-fluctuation belt,accompanying by the pore water pressure rising.The soil pressure increased and then decreased showed dynamic variation characteristics.As the undulation angle of the serrated structural planes increased(30°, 45°, and 60°),the failure modes were climbing,climbinggnawing,and gnawing respectively.The first-order natural frequency was used to calculate the damage degree(Dd)of the bank slope.During microseisms and small earthquakes,it was discovered that the evolution of Dd followed the“S”shape,which was fitted by a logic function.Additionally,the quadratic function was used to fit the Dd during moderately strong earthquakes.Through the numerical simulation,the variation characteristics of safety factors(Sf)for slopes with serrated structural planes and slopes with straight structural planes were compared.Under continuous seismic loads,the Sf of slopes with straight structural planes reduce stalely,whereas the Sf for slopes with serrated structural planes was greater than the former and the reduction rate was increasing.
基金supported by the high-performance computing platform TS10000 of the School of Geophysics and Geomatics,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42274082,42030108,41874053)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)(Grant No.162301132637).
文摘The 2019 M_(S)6.0 Changning earthquake occurred in the tectonically stable Sichuan Basin,where the epicenter and its adjacent areas are important shale gas and salt mine production fields,resulting in hot debates on whether the seismogenic mechanism of the 2019 Changning earthquake is related to human activities.As source characteristics and fluid pressure can provide important constraints on whether an earthquake is induced,weinvestigate the seismogenic mechanisms of the mainshock and 9 MW≥4.0 aftershocks.In overall,the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks are characterized by relatively shallow focal depths(1‒4 km)and significant non-double-couple(non-DC)components.However,the mainshock and the aftershocks differ in two aspects:(1)the compensated-linear-vector-dipole components dominate the non-DC components of the mainshock,whereas the isotropic components dominate the most aftershocks;(2)the fluid overpressure of the mainshock is over 30 MPa,whereas the fluid overpressure of the most aftershocks is less than 10 MPa.Thus,we propose that the mainshock is triggered by weakened fault strength with long-term fluid injection,and that its large non-DC components are associated withcomplex rupture processes.Comparatively,the aftershocks may be triggered by postseismic stress transfer by combining the Coulomb failure stress changes in the poroelastic medium.Our results highlight the possible role of fluid in the occurrence of the Changning earthquake sequence.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41604050 and 41774192)
文摘We built a three-dimensional model to simulate the disturbance of the stress field near the reverse fault in Zhaziao, Leyi Township owing to hydraulic fracturing. The pore pressure, and shear and normal stresses during fracturing are analyzed in detail. Input rock mechanics parameters are taken from laboratory test data of shale samples from the study area. The simulation results suggest that after 16 hours of fluid injection, the pore-pressure variation can activate the reverse fault, i.e., we observe reverse slip, and the shear stress and displacement on the fault plane increase with time. The biggest stress–strain change occurs after one hour of fluid injection and the yield point appears about 0.5 h after injection. To observe the stress evolution in each section, the normal displacement on the boundary is constrained and the fault plane is set as nonpermeable. Thus, the sliding is limited and the shear displacement is only in the scale of millimeters, and the calculated magnitude of the induced earthquakes is between Mw-3.5 and Mw-0.2. The simulation results suggest that fluid water injection results in inhomogeneous fracturing. The main ruptured areas are around the injection positions, whereas the extent of rupturing and cracks in other areas are relatively small. Nevertheless, nonnegligible fault activation is recorded. Sensitivity analysis of the key parameters suggests that the pore pressure is most sensitive to the maximum unbalanced force and the internal friction angle strongly affects the fault slip. Finally, the comparison between the effective normal stress and the maximum and minimum principal stresses on the fault plane explains the fault instability, i.e., the Mohr circle moves towards the left with decreasing radius reduces and intersects the critical slip envelope, and causes the fault to slip.
文摘In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology.As for the intense actual demand,the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management.This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects:earthquake occurrence probability,maximum expected magnitude forecasting,seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems.In terms of earthquake occurrence probability,we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index(SI)and hydro-mechanism nucleation.Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid,power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters.For seismic risk analysis,we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model.Furthermore,this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir,critical physical process of runaway rupture,complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect.This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production,seismic hazard mitigation,emergency management and scientific research as a reference.
文摘Unconventional petroleum development involving large volume fluid injection into horizontal well bores, referred to as hydraulic fracturing (HF, or fracking), began in the Montney Trend of northeast British Columbia, Canada, in 2005, quickly initiating earthquakes. Earthquake frequency increased substantially in the Montney by 2008, in relation to the number of wells fracked and the volume of injected frack water. A spatiotemporal filter was used to associate earthquakes with HF wells. A total of 439 earthquakes (</span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 1.0 - 4.6 (NRCAN catalogue) during 2013-2019 have close association with HF activity, of which 77% are associated with three operators. Fifteen percent of HF wells in the Montney are associated with these earthquakes, while 1.7% of HF wells are associated with </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ≥ 3.0 earthquakes. There are strong linear relationships between the maximum earthquake magnitude each year and the annual volume of injected frack fluid. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ≥ 3.0 earthquakes are associated with large cumulative frack water volumes for antecedent time periods of 1 - 3 years, often with fluid injection by multiple operators. Eighty-seven percent of the Montney </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have associated HF triggering events, but a few are sufficiently distant to be ambiguous. Distances from the induced earthquake epicentres indicate a variety of causal mechanisms are involved. It is concluded that ~60% - 70% of </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ≥ 3.0 earthquakes are induced by hydraulic fracturing. HF-induced earthquakes can be considered in part related to the cumulative development density from multiple proximal operators and cu
