A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco...A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.展开更多
Worldwide biodiversity is being threatened by human activities to a greater level wherein the natural ecosystems are reaching the verge of collapsing. We are faced with four major interrelated challenges namely a chan...Worldwide biodiversity is being threatened by human activities to a greater level wherein the natural ecosystems are reaching the verge of collapsing. We are faced with four major interrelated challenges namely a changing climate, biodiversity loss, human population growth and food production for this growing population. Agricultural intensification contributes significantly to biodiversity loss. The agricultural model for our current food production systems is mainly based on the Green Revolution, which promoted the cultivation of crops in extensive monoculture fields and intensified external inputs of agrochemicals. This model resulted in biodiversity loss, particularly in insect populations. A model based on ecological intensification as an alternative to agricultural intensification with minimized use of agro-inputs may slow the rate of biodiversity loss resulting in more sustainable agricultural ecosystems.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130748, 41101162)the Key Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-EW-304)
文摘A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.
文摘Worldwide biodiversity is being threatened by human activities to a greater level wherein the natural ecosystems are reaching the verge of collapsing. We are faced with four major interrelated challenges namely a changing climate, biodiversity loss, human population growth and food production for this growing population. Agricultural intensification contributes significantly to biodiversity loss. The agricultural model for our current food production systems is mainly based on the Green Revolution, which promoted the cultivation of crops in extensive monoculture fields and intensified external inputs of agrochemicals. This model resulted in biodiversity loss, particularly in insect populations. A model based on ecological intensification as an alternative to agricultural intensification with minimized use of agro-inputs may slow the rate of biodiversity loss resulting in more sustainable agricultural ecosystems.
