A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference veget...A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in China's Mainland for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.展开更多
Highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） contamination via wild birds and rodents poses a threat to food security and safety. As chicken meat comprises an increasing proportion of diet in China, it is useful to dete...Highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） contamination via wild birds and rodents poses a threat to food security and safety. As chicken meat comprises an increasing proportion of diet in China, it is useful to determine whether broiler farmers are adopting wild bird and rodent controls to minimize the risk of HPAI impacts on food supply. Our study surveyed a cross sectional sample of 331 Chinese broiler farmers in six provinces. We find that only 47% of farmers （mainly farmers with large herds） adopted control measures against wild birds and rodents, while 14% adopted no measures. Farm size was the biggest driver of adoption followed by proportion of farm revenue derived from broiler production. However, southern farmers were at a far greater probability of non-adoption. We suggest that assistance in the form of education/training programs and subsidized traps or baiting controls across smaller producers could help raise of the adoption level toward more effective HPAI control.展开更多
The study was designed to evaluate the level of knowledge of Nigerian Veterinary Laboratory Staff on the nature of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) disease using structured questionnaires. The study comprised ...The study was designed to evaluate the level of knowledge of Nigerian Veterinary Laboratory Staff on the nature of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) disease using structured questionnaires. The study comprised the Staff of National Veterinary Research Institute (NVRI) and five reference Veterinary Teaching Hospitals (VTH) designated for HPAI diagnosis. A total of 69 questionnaires were distributed to the laboratory staff. Questions on the general nature of the disease such as the cause, signs, mode of transmission, methods of identification, lesions, control and prevention, etc. were asked. The results showed that 77.38% of the staff answered all the questions correctly indicating their considerable knowledge of the HPAI disease. Considerable percentage of the staff listed correctly the equipment used for serology (36.23%) and RT-PCR (31.88%). Interestingly only 13.04% of the staff listed correctly the equipment used in rapid tests despite the fact that they are simpler and recommended for all P2 laboratories. In conclusion, the veterinary laboratory staff assessed demonstrated a significant level of knowledge on HPAI diagnosis;however, most of their laboratories lack the structure, organization, funds and basic facilities required for effective HPAI diagnosis.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2007CB714404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40871173)the Spe-cial Grant for the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases (2008ZX10004-012)
文摘A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in China's Mainland for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.
基金supported by the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (ASTIP-IAED-2016)the Modern Agro-industry Technology Research System,China (CARS42-G24)
文摘Highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） contamination via wild birds and rodents poses a threat to food security and safety. As chicken meat comprises an increasing proportion of diet in China, it is useful to determine whether broiler farmers are adopting wild bird and rodent controls to minimize the risk of HPAI impacts on food supply. Our study surveyed a cross sectional sample of 331 Chinese broiler farmers in six provinces. We find that only 47% of farmers （mainly farmers with large herds） adopted control measures against wild birds and rodents, while 14% adopted no measures. Farm size was the biggest driver of adoption followed by proportion of farm revenue derived from broiler production. However, southern farmers were at a far greater probability of non-adoption. We suggest that assistance in the form of education/training programs and subsidized traps or baiting controls across smaller producers could help raise of the adoption level toward more effective HPAI control.
文摘The study was designed to evaluate the level of knowledge of Nigerian Veterinary Laboratory Staff on the nature of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) disease using structured questionnaires. The study comprised the Staff of National Veterinary Research Institute (NVRI) and five reference Veterinary Teaching Hospitals (VTH) designated for HPAI diagnosis. A total of 69 questionnaires were distributed to the laboratory staff. Questions on the general nature of the disease such as the cause, signs, mode of transmission, methods of identification, lesions, control and prevention, etc. were asked. The results showed that 77.38% of the staff answered all the questions correctly indicating their considerable knowledge of the HPAI disease. Considerable percentage of the staff listed correctly the equipment used for serology (36.23%) and RT-PCR (31.88%). Interestingly only 13.04% of the staff listed correctly the equipment used in rapid tests despite the fact that they are simpler and recommended for all P2 laboratories. In conclusion, the veterinary laboratory staff assessed demonstrated a significant level of knowledge on HPAI diagnosis;however, most of their laboratories lack the structure, organization, funds and basic facilities required for effective HPAI diagnosis.
