The solar radiation that hits the Earth conditions the dynamic equilibrium that prevails on our planet. Consideration of basic physical-chemical knowledge shows that this equilibrium can be changed only by additional ...The solar radiation that hits the Earth conditions the dynamic equilibrium that prevails on our planet. Consideration of basic physical-chemical knowledge shows that this equilibrium can be changed only by additional energy input or prolongation of the interaction time solar radiation—Earth matter. The contribution of H<sub>2</sub>O(g) and CO<sub>2</sub> to the protection of the earth against excessive warming is experimentally and by basic laws of nature secured. For a greenhouse effect, a part of the earth radiation must be radiated back to the earth and then into space. If one understands the earth radiation as radiation of a black body with the average global environmental temperature, from all vibrations normal modes of the gases H<sub>2</sub>O(g) and CO<sub>2</sub> only the bending mode of CO<sub>2</sub> with 4% of the solar constant can contribute beside the rotational modes of the water to the greenhouse effect. The contributions of the normal modes of H<sub>2</sub>O(g) and CO<sub>2</sub> to the heat capacity of the atmosphere are negligible. Therefore, in agreement with studies by K. Ångström, CO<sub>2</sub> contributes only to the stabilization of the global environmental temperature. Whether the use of renewable energies can actually at least mitigate the increase of the environmental temperature is by no means certain but must be examined for each individual case. With certainty, this goal can only be achieved by reducing the energy consumption of mankind.展开更多
Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index and mean global near surface temperature anomalies are compared for the 1950 to 2012 period using recently released HadCRU4 data. The method avoids a focused statistical ...Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index and mean global near surface temperature anomalies are compared for the 1950 to 2012 period using recently released HadCRU4 data. The method avoids a focused statistical analysis of the data, in part because the study deals with smoothed data, which means there is the danger of spurious correlations, and in part because the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation is a cyclical phenomenon of irregular period. In these situations the results of regression analysis or similar statistical evaluation can be misleading. With the potential controversy arising over a particular statistical analysis removed, the findings indicate that El Nino-Southern Oscillation exercises a major influence on mean global temperature. The results show the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for mean global temperature variation, although the extent of the influence is difficult to quantify from among the variability of short-term influences.展开更多
Oceanic–atmospheric patterns, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and their respective influence on the global warming hiatus were the main interests of this study. In gener...Oceanic–atmospheric patterns, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and their respective influence on the global warming hiatus were the main interests of this study. In general, a fractal property is observed in the time series of dynamics of complex systems;hence, we investigated the relations among the AMO, PDO, and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the point of view of multifractality, in which changes in fractality were detected with multifractal analysis using wavelet transform. For the periods 1950-1976 and 1998-2012, global temperature increased little, with positive AMO and negative PDO indices;subsequently, the rate of temperature increase weakened. Global temperature increased again in 1976, with the reversal of the AMO and PDO indices from negative to positive. More specifically, AMO, PDO, and Ni?o3.4 (ENSO index) exhibited fractality change from multifractality to monofractality, providing them stability. Generally, the PDO was influenced largely by the ENSO. But, around 1960 and around 2000, whose periods corresponded to hiatus periods in global warming, the influence of the ENSO on the PDO was weak. In 1998, the AMO increased and PDO decreased and global temperature increased little and the multifractality of PDO, and Ni?o3.4 was weak, which corresponded to the change from multifractality to monofractality in 1976. Wavelet analysis showed the leads of PDO and Ni?o3.4 indices with respect to global temperature. Consequently, the PDO and ENSO showed large influence on global temperature and, further, on the global warming hiatus.展开更多
Changes in Arctic sea ice are an important fingerprint of natural and anthropogenic climate change. In general, fractal properties may be observed in the time series of the dynamics of complex systems. To study the re...Changes in Arctic sea ice are an important fingerprint of natural and anthropogenic climate change. In general, fractal properties may be observed in the time series of the dynamics of complex systems. To study the relations among the Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea ice area, solar activity, global temperature, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, we investigated changes in the fractal behavior of these time series by multifractal analysis and applying the wavelet coherence. The relationship between the solar activity: solar flux, sunspot number (SSN), and ultraviolet B (UV-B), and NH sea ice area was assessed based on changes in fractality. We identified the existing relations among the NH sea ice area, global temperature, and PDO based on changes in fractality and wavelet coherence. In the 2000s when the global warming hiatus occurred, after the order formation of NH sea ice area in the early 2000s, the change in state from multifractal to monofractal of the PDO and global temperature occurred, when fluctuations became large and multifractality became strong. We identified a small change in fractality for NH sea ice area, UV-B, and global temperature and a large change in fractality for solar flux, SSN, and PDO, which had large fluctuation. Our results will contribute to further studies on climate change.展开更多
An increase of carbon dioxide content accompanied by an increase of the temperature is observed in the atmosphere during the last 200 years. This behaviour can be explained by examination of correlations between tree ...An increase of carbon dioxide content accompanied by an increase of the temperature is observed in the atmosphere during the last 200 years. This behaviour can be explained by examination of correlations between tree generally accepted data sets of the recent past, world population, carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, and rise of global temperature as function of time. No return to climate situations from hundred thousand of years before present is necessary. The world climate is a dynamic equilibrium between all energy generating processes on earth, especially sun energy, and the radiation of energy into space. Since approx. 200 years the dynamic equilibrium is changed additionally by means of fossil energy carriers, whose depots were put on in passed geological epochs, a climatic disturbance was produced. It is shown that the consumption of energy per year by the mankind can warm up the atmosphere by about one degree. This quantity cannot be neglected in climatic calculations;therefore it is the cause of mankind made warming of the atmosphere. The qualitative analyses presented here have shown that the use of so-called renewable energy sources does not necessarily lead to the avoidance of global warming. It can be expected that some techniques will have no or even small effect. Especially the model calculations to the operation of wind turbines and its influence on the temperature of the atmosphere show that it is difficult to estimate their influence and cannot be foreknown.展开更多
Changes of temperature extremes over China were evaluated using daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 591 stations for the period 1961-2002. A set of indices of warm extremes, cold extremes and daily tempera...Changes of temperature extremes over China were evaluated using daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 591 stations for the period 1961-2002. A set of indices of warm extremes, cold extremes and daily temperature range （DTR） extremes was studied with a focus on trends. The results showed that the frequency of warm extremes （F WE） increased obviously in most parts of China, and the intensity of warm extremes （I WE） increased significantly in northern China. The opposite distribution was found in the frequency and intensity of cold extremes. The frequency of high DTR extremes was relatively uniform with that of intensity： an obvious increasing trend was located over western China and the east coast, while significant decreases occurred in central, southeastern and northeastern China; the opposite distribution was found for low DTR extreme days. Seasonal trends illustrated that both F WE and I WE showed signifi- cant increasing trends, especially over northeastern China and along the Yangtze Valley basin in spring and winter. A correlation technique was used to link extreme temperature anomalies over China with global temperature anomalies. Three key regions were identified, as follows： northeastern China and its coastal areas, the high-latitude regions above 40~0N, and southwestern China and the equatorial eastern Pacific.展开更多
文摘The solar radiation that hits the Earth conditions the dynamic equilibrium that prevails on our planet. Consideration of basic physical-chemical knowledge shows that this equilibrium can be changed only by additional energy input or prolongation of the interaction time solar radiation—Earth matter. The contribution of H<sub>2</sub>O(g) and CO<sub>2</sub> to the protection of the earth against excessive warming is experimentally and by basic laws of nature secured. For a greenhouse effect, a part of the earth radiation must be radiated back to the earth and then into space. If one understands the earth radiation as radiation of a black body with the average global environmental temperature, from all vibrations normal modes of the gases H<sub>2</sub>O(g) and CO<sub>2</sub> only the bending mode of CO<sub>2</sub> with 4% of the solar constant can contribute beside the rotational modes of the water to the greenhouse effect. The contributions of the normal modes of H<sub>2</sub>O(g) and CO<sub>2</sub> to the heat capacity of the atmosphere are negligible. Therefore, in agreement with studies by K. Ångström, CO<sub>2</sub> contributes only to the stabilization of the global environmental temperature. Whether the use of renewable energies can actually at least mitigate the increase of the environmental temperature is by no means certain but must be examined for each individual case. With certainty, this goal can only be achieved by reducing the energy consumption of mankind.
文摘Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index and mean global near surface temperature anomalies are compared for the 1950 to 2012 period using recently released HadCRU4 data. The method avoids a focused statistical analysis of the data, in part because the study deals with smoothed data, which means there is the danger of spurious correlations, and in part because the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation is a cyclical phenomenon of irregular period. In these situations the results of regression analysis or similar statistical evaluation can be misleading. With the potential controversy arising over a particular statistical analysis removed, the findings indicate that El Nino-Southern Oscillation exercises a major influence on mean global temperature. The results show the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for mean global temperature variation, although the extent of the influence is difficult to quantify from among the variability of short-term influences.
文摘Oceanic–atmospheric patterns, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and their respective influence on the global warming hiatus were the main interests of this study. In general, a fractal property is observed in the time series of dynamics of complex systems;hence, we investigated the relations among the AMO, PDO, and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the point of view of multifractality, in which changes in fractality were detected with multifractal analysis using wavelet transform. For the periods 1950-1976 and 1998-2012, global temperature increased little, with positive AMO and negative PDO indices;subsequently, the rate of temperature increase weakened. Global temperature increased again in 1976, with the reversal of the AMO and PDO indices from negative to positive. More specifically, AMO, PDO, and Ni?o3.4 (ENSO index) exhibited fractality change from multifractality to monofractality, providing them stability. Generally, the PDO was influenced largely by the ENSO. But, around 1960 and around 2000, whose periods corresponded to hiatus periods in global warming, the influence of the ENSO on the PDO was weak. In 1998, the AMO increased and PDO decreased and global temperature increased little and the multifractality of PDO, and Ni?o3.4 was weak, which corresponded to the change from multifractality to monofractality in 1976. Wavelet analysis showed the leads of PDO and Ni?o3.4 indices with respect to global temperature. Consequently, the PDO and ENSO showed large influence on global temperature and, further, on the global warming hiatus.
文摘Changes in Arctic sea ice are an important fingerprint of natural and anthropogenic climate change. In general, fractal properties may be observed in the time series of the dynamics of complex systems. To study the relations among the Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea ice area, solar activity, global temperature, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, we investigated changes in the fractal behavior of these time series by multifractal analysis and applying the wavelet coherence. The relationship between the solar activity: solar flux, sunspot number (SSN), and ultraviolet B (UV-B), and NH sea ice area was assessed based on changes in fractality. We identified the existing relations among the NH sea ice area, global temperature, and PDO based on changes in fractality and wavelet coherence. In the 2000s when the global warming hiatus occurred, after the order formation of NH sea ice area in the early 2000s, the change in state from multifractal to monofractal of the PDO and global temperature occurred, when fluctuations became large and multifractality became strong. We identified a small change in fractality for NH sea ice area, UV-B, and global temperature and a large change in fractality for solar flux, SSN, and PDO, which had large fluctuation. Our results will contribute to further studies on climate change.
文摘An increase of carbon dioxide content accompanied by an increase of the temperature is observed in the atmosphere during the last 200 years. This behaviour can be explained by examination of correlations between tree generally accepted data sets of the recent past, world population, carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, and rise of global temperature as function of time. No return to climate situations from hundred thousand of years before present is necessary. The world climate is a dynamic equilibrium between all energy generating processes on earth, especially sun energy, and the radiation of energy into space. Since approx. 200 years the dynamic equilibrium is changed additionally by means of fossil energy carriers, whose depots were put on in passed geological epochs, a climatic disturbance was produced. It is shown that the consumption of energy per year by the mankind can warm up the atmosphere by about one degree. This quantity cannot be neglected in climatic calculations;therefore it is the cause of mankind made warming of the atmosphere. The qualitative analyses presented here have shown that the use of so-called renewable energy sources does not necessarily lead to the avoidance of global warming. It can be expected that some techniques will have no or even small effect. Especially the model calculations to the operation of wind turbines and its influence on the temperature of the atmosphere show that it is difficult to estimate their influence and cannot be foreknown.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40675042, 40901016 and 40805041
文摘Changes of temperature extremes over China were evaluated using daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 591 stations for the period 1961-2002. A set of indices of warm extremes, cold extremes and daily temperature range （DTR） extremes was studied with a focus on trends. The results showed that the frequency of warm extremes （F WE） increased obviously in most parts of China, and the intensity of warm extremes （I WE） increased significantly in northern China. The opposite distribution was found in the frequency and intensity of cold extremes. The frequency of high DTR extremes was relatively uniform with that of intensity： an obvious increasing trend was located over western China and the east coast, while significant decreases occurred in central, southeastern and northeastern China; the opposite distribution was found for low DTR extreme days. Seasonal trends illustrated that both F WE and I WE showed signifi- cant increasing trends, especially over northeastern China and along the Yangtze Valley basin in spring and winter. A correlation technique was used to link extreme temperature anomalies over China with global temperature anomalies. Three key regions were identified, as follows： northeastern China and its coastal areas, the high-latitude regions above 40~0N, and southwestern China and the equatorial eastern Pacific.
