In this paper, taking the Lorenz system as an example, we compare the influences of the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean on measuring the global and local average error growth. The results show that the geometri...In this paper, taking the Lorenz system as an example, we compare the influences of the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean on measuring the global and local average error growth. The results show that the geometric mean error （GME） has a smoother growth than the arithmetic mean error （AME） for the global average error growth, and the GME is directly related to the maximal Lyapunov exponent, but the AME is not, as already noted by Krishnamurthy in 1993. Besides these, the GME is shown to be more appropriate than the AME in measuring the mean error growth in terms of the probability distribution of errors. The physical meanings of the saturation levels of the AME and the GME are also shown to be different. However, there is no obvious difference between the local average error growth with the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean, indicating that the choices of the AME or the GME have no influence on the measure of local average predictability.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （40805022 and 40675046）the National Basic Research and Development （973） Program of China （2010CB950400）
文摘In this paper, taking the Lorenz system as an example, we compare the influences of the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean on measuring the global and local average error growth. The results show that the geometric mean error （GME） has a smoother growth than the arithmetic mean error （AME） for the global average error growth, and the GME is directly related to the maximal Lyapunov exponent, but the AME is not, as already noted by Krishnamurthy in 1993. Besides these, the GME is shown to be more appropriate than the AME in measuring the mean error growth in terms of the probability distribution of errors. The physical meanings of the saturation levels of the AME and the GME are also shown to be different. However, there is no obvious difference between the local average error growth with the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean, indicating that the choices of the AME or the GME have no influence on the measure of local average predictability.
