研究首先利用1980—2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个...研究首先利用1980—2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个站点在IPCC SR ES A 2和B2两个气候情景下雨养和灌溉小麦产量和水分利用的变化趋势。得到如下结论:在不考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,黄淮海农业区雨养小麦全面减产,空间分布特点是西部减产幅度大,东部减产幅度小;在充分灌溉的情况下,灌溉小麦产量维持了现有水平,但灌溉水量增加。因此,在未来该地区水资源短缺的情况下,如何合理利用有限的水资源将成为黄淮海农业区主要面临的问题。在考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,雨养和灌溉小麦产量都全面增产,雨养小麦的增产幅度明显偏高,灌溉小麦约增产10%～30%,但CO 2的肥效能否充分实现还需要进一步研究证明。展开更多
Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelin...Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.展开更多
Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report （AR4） are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model （FGOALS） developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physic...Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report （AR4） are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model （FGOALS） developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAP/CAS）, including the ＂Climate of the 20th century experiment＂, ＂CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment＂ and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios AIB and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show： （1） from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temper- ature increases about 0.5℃ and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model＇s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; （2） the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6℃ in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5℃ and 2.4℃ in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.展开更多
There exists great uncertainty in parameterizing snow cover fraction in most general circulation models (GCMs) using various empirical formulae, which has great influence on the performance of GCMs. This work reviews ...There exists great uncertainty in parameterizing snow cover fraction in most general circulation models (GCMs) using various empirical formulae, which has great influence on the performance of GCMs. This work reviews the commonly used relationships between region-averaged snow depth (or snow water equivalent) and snow cover extent (or fraction) and suggests a new empirical formula to compute snow cover fraction, which only depends on the domain-averaged snow depth, for GCMs with different horizontal resolution. The new empirical formula is deduced based on the 10-yr (1978-1987) 0.5°× 0.5° weekly snow depth data of the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) driven from the Nimbus-7 Satellite. Its validation to estimate snow cover for various GCM resolutions was tested using the climatology of NOAA satellite-observed snow cover.展开更多
Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global o...Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model(MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios.It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while boththe frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a fewpercent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the restof the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases,suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. SouthChina is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitationintensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warmingand an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may berelated with an El Nino-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease insummer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitationcontrast more in the future.展开更多
Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes b...Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM （AGCM）, the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics）, at low resolution （GAMIL-L, hereafter）, and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72 × 40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature （SST） forcing, and the other was a 50-yr （1950-2000） integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated.The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model （CAM2） ph展开更多
文摘研究首先利用1980—2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个站点在IPCC SR ES A 2和B2两个气候情景下雨养和灌溉小麦产量和水分利用的变化趋势。得到如下结论:在不考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,黄淮海农业区雨养小麦全面减产,空间分布特点是西部减产幅度大,东部减产幅度小;在充分灌溉的情况下,灌溉小麦产量维持了现有水平,但灌溉水量增加。因此,在未来该地区水资源短缺的情况下,如何合理利用有限的水资源将成为黄淮海农业区主要面临的问题。在考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,雨养和灌溉小麦产量都全面增产,雨养小麦的增产幅度明显偏高,灌溉小麦约增产10%～30%,但CO 2的肥效能否充分实现还需要进一步研究证明。
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)“Innovation Program”(ZKCX2-SW-210)State Key Project(G2000078502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.40231004,40221503,and 40023001).
文摘Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China.(Grant Nos.40675049,40523001,and 40221503)National Basic Research Program of China"Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction over the Joining Area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Ocean(AIPO)and Its Impact on the Short-Term Climate Variation in China"(2006CB403605)CAS Innovative Research International Partnership Project"The Climate System Model Development and Application Studies".
文摘Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report （AR4） are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model （FGOALS） developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAP/CAS）, including the ＂Climate of the 20th century experiment＂, ＂CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment＂ and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios AIB and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show： （1） from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temper- ature increases about 0.5℃ and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model＇s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; （2） the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6℃ in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5℃ and 2.4℃ in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.
基金This work was conducted unlder the joint support of the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40005008 and 40135020the Chinese Academy Project ZKCX2-SW-210.
文摘There exists great uncertainty in parameterizing snow cover fraction in most general circulation models (GCMs) using various empirical formulae, which has great influence on the performance of GCMs. This work reviews the commonly used relationships between region-averaged snow depth (or snow water equivalent) and snow cover extent (or fraction) and suggests a new empirical formula to compute snow cover fraction, which only depends on the domain-averaged snow depth, for GCMs with different horizontal resolution. The new empirical formula is deduced based on the 10-yr (1978-1987) 0.5°× 0.5° weekly snow depth data of the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) driven from the Nimbus-7 Satellite. Its validation to estimate snow cover for various GCM resolutions was tested using the climatology of NOAA satellite-observed snow cover.
基金funded by the'Study of the Prediction of Regional Climate Changes over Japan due to Global Warming'project，the'Water Resource and Its Variability in Asia in the 21st Century'project
文摘Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model(MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios.It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while boththe frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a fewpercent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the restof the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases,suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. SouthChina is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitationintensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warmingand an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may berelated with an El Nino-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease insummer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitationcontrast more in the future.
文摘Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM （AGCM）, the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics）, at low resolution （GAMIL-L, hereafter）, and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72 × 40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature （SST） forcing, and the other was a 50-yr （1950-2000） integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated.The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model （CAM2） ph
