Themodeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology,and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making.To this end,in...Themodeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology,and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making.To this end,in the present study,based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors,the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states,namely New York,California,USA,Iran,Sweden and UK.The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of daily deaths in each country/state includes information about the quality of the health system in each area,the age distribution of population,geographical and environmental factors as well as other conditions.Based on derived predicted epidemic curves,a new 3D-epidemic surface is proposed to assess the epidemic phenomenon at any time of its evolution.This research highlights the potential of the proposed model as a tool which can assist in the risk assessment of the COVID-19.Mapping its development through 3D-epidemic surface can assist in revealing its dynamic nature as well as differences and similarities among different districts.展开更多
Hierarchical route planning method under the emergent threats is put forward for the emergent threats in the route planningproblem. First, the basic ideas and framework of hierarchical planning are put forward on the ...Hierarchical route planning method under the emergent threats is put forward for the emergent threats in the route planningproblem. First, the basic ideas and framework of hierarchical planning are put forward on the basis of constraints of routeplanning. Then, the primary flight corridor planning of the bacterial foraging algorithm based on Gaussian distribution estimationalgorithm and secondary optimal route planning based on heuristic A ＊ algorithm are put forward in this paper. The primaryplanning effectively reduces planning domain, and the secondary planning is based on the primary planning. Real-time routeplanning can be carried out quickly and efficiently and the emergent threats can be effective to deal with. Finally, the simulationresults prove that this method is not only scientific and reasonable, it also can effectively narrow the domain range and plan theroute in real-time to avoid emergent threats.展开更多
文摘Themodeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology,and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making.To this end,in the present study,based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors,the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states,namely New York,California,USA,Iran,Sweden and UK.The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of daily deaths in each country/state includes information about the quality of the health system in each area,the age distribution of population,geographical and environmental factors as well as other conditions.Based on derived predicted epidemic curves,a new 3D-epidemic surface is proposed to assess the epidemic phenomenon at any time of its evolution.This research highlights the potential of the proposed model as a tool which can assist in the risk assessment of the COVID-19.Mapping its development through 3D-epidemic surface can assist in revealing its dynamic nature as well as differences and similarities among different districts.
文摘Hierarchical route planning method under the emergent threats is put forward for the emergent threats in the route planningproblem. First, the basic ideas and framework of hierarchical planning are put forward on the basis of constraints of routeplanning. Then, the primary flight corridor planning of the bacterial foraging algorithm based on Gaussian distribution estimationalgorithm and secondary optimal route planning based on heuristic A ＊ algorithm are put forward in this paper. The primaryplanning effectively reduces planning domain, and the secondary planning is based on the primary planning. Real-time routeplanning can be carried out quickly and efficiently and the emergent threats can be effective to deal with. Finally, the simulationresults prove that this method is not only scientific and reasonable, it also can effectively narrow the domain range and plan theroute in real-time to avoid emergent threats.
