Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the pred...Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.展开更多
The ocean surface wind(OSW)data retrieved from microwave scatterometers have high spatial accuracy and represent the only wind data assimilated by global numerical models on the ocean surface,thus playing an important...The ocean surface wind(OSW)data retrieved from microwave scatterometers have high spatial accuracy and represent the only wind data assimilated by global numerical models on the ocean surface,thus playing an important role in improving the forecast skills of global medium-range weather prediction models.To improve the forecast skills of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Global Forecast System(GRAPES_GFS),the HY-2B OSW data is assimilated into the GRAPES_GFS four-dimensional variational assimilation(4DVAR)system.Then,the impacts of the HY-2B OSW data assimilation on the analyses and forecasts of GRAPES_GFS are analyzed based on one-month assimilation cycle experiments.The results show that after assimilating the HY-2B OSW data,the analysis errors of the wind fields in the lower-middle troposphere(1000-600 hPa)of the tropics and the southern hemisphere(SH)are significantly reduced by an average rate of about 5%.The impacts of the HY-2B OSW data assimilation on the analysis fields of wind,geopotential height,and temperature are not solely limited to the boundary layer but also extend throughout the entire troposphere after about two days of cycling assimilation.Furthermore,assimilating the HY-2B OSW data can significantly improve the forecast skill of wind,geopotential height,and temperature in the troposphere of the tropics and SH.展开更多
An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given t...An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given the analyses, the ME in each interval （6 h） between two analyses can be iteratively obtained by introducing an unknown tendency term into the prediction equation, shown in Part I of this two-paper series. In this part, after analyzing the 5-year （2001-2005） GRAPES- GFS （Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） error patterns and evolution, a systematic model error correction is given based on the least-squares approach by firstly using the past MEs. To test the correction, we applied the approach in GRAPES-GFS for July 2009 and January 2010. The datasets associated with the initial condition and SST used in this study were based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results indicated that the Northern Hemispheric systematically underestimated equator-to-pole geopotential gradient and westerly wind of GRAPES-GFS were largely enhanced, and the biases of temperature and wind in the tropics were strongly reduced. Therefore, the correction results in a more skillful forecast with lower mean bias and root-mean-square error and higher anomaly correlation coefficient.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Youth (Grant No.41405095)the Key Projects in the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Fiveyear Plan Period (Grant No.2012BAC22B02)the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Creative Research Groups (Grant No.41221064)
文摘Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.
基金supported by the Key Special Project for the Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (Grant No. GML2019ZD0302)the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1506205)
文摘The ocean surface wind(OSW)data retrieved from microwave scatterometers have high spatial accuracy and represent the only wind data assimilated by global numerical models on the ocean surface,thus playing an important role in improving the forecast skills of global medium-range weather prediction models.To improve the forecast skills of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Global Forecast System(GRAPES_GFS),the HY-2B OSW data is assimilated into the GRAPES_GFS four-dimensional variational assimilation(4DVAR)system.Then,the impacts of the HY-2B OSW data assimilation on the analyses and forecasts of GRAPES_GFS are analyzed based on one-month assimilation cycle experiments.The results show that after assimilating the HY-2B OSW data,the analysis errors of the wind fields in the lower-middle troposphere(1000-600 hPa)of the tropics and the southern hemisphere(SH)are significantly reduced by an average rate of about 5%.The impacts of the HY-2B OSW data assimilation on the analysis fields of wind,geopotential height,and temperature are not solely limited to the boundary layer but also extend throughout the entire troposphere after about two days of cycling assimilation.Furthermore,assimilating the HY-2B OSW data can significantly improve the forecast skill of wind,geopotential height,and temperature in the troposphere of the tropics and SH.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Youth (Grant No.41405095)the Key Projects in the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Fiveyear Plan Period (Grant No.2012BAC22B02)the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Creative Research Groups (Grant No.41221064)
文摘An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given the analyses, the ME in each interval （6 h） between two analyses can be iteratively obtained by introducing an unknown tendency term into the prediction equation, shown in Part I of this two-paper series. In this part, after analyzing the 5-year （2001-2005） GRAPES- GFS （Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） error patterns and evolution, a systematic model error correction is given based on the least-squares approach by firstly using the past MEs. To test the correction, we applied the approach in GRAPES-GFS for July 2009 and January 2010. The datasets associated with the initial condition and SST used in this study were based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results indicated that the Northern Hemispheric systematically underestimated equator-to-pole geopotential gradient and westerly wind of GRAPES-GFS were largely enhanced, and the biases of temperature and wind in the tropics were strongly reduced. Therefore, the correction results in a more skillful forecast with lower mean bias and root-mean-square error and higher anomaly correlation coefficient.
