This paper constructs a dynamic conflict model that considers Decision Makers'(DMs)evolutional attitude using the option prioritization.The proposed evolutional attitude approach is based on the framework of the G...This paper constructs a dynamic conflict model that considers Decision Makers'(DMs)evolutional attitude using the option prioritization.The proposed evolutional attitude approach is based on the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution(GMCR).Compared with the existing state-based preference,the option prioritization is a more convenient and efficient approach to analyze larger models with consideration of the evolutional attitude,which exists broadly in the evolutional conflicts in reallife.This study reveals how the evolutional attitude of a DM succeeds in the overall evolution of conflict.The analysis unfolds that DMs change their attitude(s)consequent upon the changes in DMs and options available to them as conflict evolves from one level to the next.The changes in attitude of DMs during dynamic conflict situation have substantial effects on the equilibrium outcomes of a conflict.The proposed evaluation attitude-based approach is employed to analyze the conflict between the Punjab Government(G)and Heritage Campaigner and the Public(P)in Pakistan that appeared due to the inappropriate design,planning,and construction of an urban transport system project in Lahore,Pakistan.The present study demonstrates the modeling procedure of a two-level evolutional attitude-based conflict analysis.The results of the stability analysis reveal that improper(negative)attitude may result in undesirable and unexpected consequences,such as project temporalities and delays.This research provides a foundation for future research in urban project planning that employs strategic ways to avoid disputes caused by DMs'attitudes.展开更多
当今世界由于经济、科技、地缘战略、国际秩序等问题频繁爆发冲突事件,冲突规模正由个体冲突、小规模群体冲突向复杂大规模群体冲突转变。相较于个体间的冲突,大规模群体冲突事件持续时间更长、波及范围更广,易对我国的社会秩序以及经...当今世界由于经济、科技、地缘战略、国际秩序等问题频繁爆发冲突事件,冲突规模正由个体冲突、小规模群体冲突向复杂大规模群体冲突转变。相较于个体间的冲突,大规模群体冲突事件持续时间更长、波及范围更广,易对我国的社会秩序以及经济发展造成恶劣影响。图模型冲突分析(Graph model for conflict resolution,GMCR)理论提供了分析冲突、解决矛盾的有效方案,作为一门专业解决冲突问题的理论工具已经在水资源、环境管理和经济政策等领域得到广泛应用,并取得良好效果。然而,随着冲突事件参与者日渐增多、主体的策略日趋复杂形成了指数级增加的局势,以及主体的偏好行为不确定性加强,传统的决策支持系统GMCRⅡ难以求解此类复杂冲突问题。基于强度偏好冲突分析理论的代数表达,开发了基于.NET平台的冲突分析WEB系统SP-GMCRDSS,该系统包括可行状态生成、状态转移设置、强度偏好序列生成和稳定性分析引擎4个模块,对比现有的系统,SP-GMCRDSS能更高效地辅助冲突分析者解决数据驱动下的大型、复杂的冲突。并且运用文本挖掘技术提取决策者策略数据,辅助分析者确定决策支持系统建模信息的输入,降低模型构建的主观性。最后,通过“兰州水污染冲突事件”演示了该系统的建模、求解以及分析的功能。展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71471087,71071076,and 61673209).
文摘This paper constructs a dynamic conflict model that considers Decision Makers'(DMs)evolutional attitude using the option prioritization.The proposed evolutional attitude approach is based on the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution(GMCR).Compared with the existing state-based preference,the option prioritization is a more convenient and efficient approach to analyze larger models with consideration of the evolutional attitude,which exists broadly in the evolutional conflicts in reallife.This study reveals how the evolutional attitude of a DM succeeds in the overall evolution of conflict.The analysis unfolds that DMs change their attitude(s)consequent upon the changes in DMs and options available to them as conflict evolves from one level to the next.The changes in attitude of DMs during dynamic conflict situation have substantial effects on the equilibrium outcomes of a conflict.The proposed evaluation attitude-based approach is employed to analyze the conflict between the Punjab Government(G)and Heritage Campaigner and the Public(P)in Pakistan that appeared due to the inappropriate design,planning,and construction of an urban transport system project in Lahore,Pakistan.The present study demonstrates the modeling procedure of a two-level evolutional attitude-based conflict analysis.The results of the stability analysis reveal that improper(negative)attitude may result in undesirable and unexpected consequences,such as project temporalities and delays.This research provides a foundation for future research in urban project planning that employs strategic ways to avoid disputes caused by DMs'attitudes.
文摘当今世界由于经济、科技、地缘战略、国际秩序等问题频繁爆发冲突事件,冲突规模正由个体冲突、小规模群体冲突向复杂大规模群体冲突转变。相较于个体间的冲突,大规模群体冲突事件持续时间更长、波及范围更广,易对我国的社会秩序以及经济发展造成恶劣影响。图模型冲突分析(Graph model for conflict resolution,GMCR)理论提供了分析冲突、解决矛盾的有效方案,作为一门专业解决冲突问题的理论工具已经在水资源、环境管理和经济政策等领域得到广泛应用,并取得良好效果。然而,随着冲突事件参与者日渐增多、主体的策略日趋复杂形成了指数级增加的局势,以及主体的偏好行为不确定性加强,传统的决策支持系统GMCRⅡ难以求解此类复杂冲突问题。基于强度偏好冲突分析理论的代数表达,开发了基于.NET平台的冲突分析WEB系统SP-GMCRDSS,该系统包括可行状态生成、状态转移设置、强度偏好序列生成和稳定性分析引擎4个模块,对比现有的系统,SP-GMCRDSS能更高效地辅助冲突分析者解决数据驱动下的大型、复杂的冲突。并且运用文本挖掘技术提取决策者策略数据,辅助分析者确定决策支持系统建模信息的输入,降低模型构建的主观性。最后,通过“兰州水污染冲突事件”演示了该系统的建模、求解以及分析的功能。
