Yopougon, located in the western part of the Autonomous District of Abidjan, is the most heavily populated municipality in Côte d’Ivoire. However, this area is prone to floods and landslides during the rainy sea...Yopougon, located in the western part of the Autonomous District of Abidjan, is the most heavily populated municipality in Côte d’Ivoire. However, this area is prone to floods and landslides during the rainy season. The study aims to assess recent flood risks in the municipality of Yopougon of the Autonomous District of Abidjan. To achieve this objective, the study analyzed two types of data: daily rainfall from 1971 to 2022 and parameters derived from a Numerical Field and Altitude Model (NFAM). The study examined six rainfall parameters using statistical analysis and combined land use maps obtained from the NFAM of Yopougon. The results indicated that, in 67% of cases, extreme rainfall occurred mainly between week 3 of May and week 1 of July. The peak of extreme rainfall was observed in week 2 of June with 15% of cases. These are critical periods of flood risks in the Autonomous District of Abidjan, especially in Yopougon. In addition, there was variability of rainfall parameters in the Autonomous District of Abidjan. This was characterized by a drop of annual and seasonal rainfall, and an increase of numbers of rainy days. Flood risks in Yopougon are, therefore, due to the regular occurrence of rainy events. Recent floods in Yopougon were caused by normal rains ranging from 55 millimeters (mm) to 153 mm with a return period of less than five years. Abnormal heavy rains of a case study on June 20-21, 2022 in Yopougon were detected by outputs global climate models. Areas of very high risk of flood covered 18% of Yopougon, while 31% were at high risk. Climate information from this study can assist authorities to take in advance adaptation and management measures.展开更多
Concurrent compound dry and hot events(CDHEs)amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual extremes.Under climate change,compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global scale....Concurrent compound dry and hot events(CDHEs)amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual extremes.Under climate change,compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global scale.This paper proposes a mathematical method to quantitatively attribute changes of CDHEs to changes of precipitation,change in temperature and change in the dependence between precipitation and temperature.The attribution is achieved by formulating the total differential equation of the return period of CDHEs among Meta-gaussian model.A case study of China is devised based on monthly precipitation and temperature data during the period from 1921 to 2020 for 80 major river basins.It is found that temperature is the main driving factor of increases in CDHEs for 49 major river basins in China,except for the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.In West China,precipitation changes drove the increase in CDHEs in 18 river basins(23%),particularly in parts of North Xinjiang,Qinghai and Gansu.On the other hand,dependence between precipitation and temperature dominated changes of CDHEs in 13 river basins(16%)of China with other factors,including parts of South China,East China and Northwestern China.Furthermore,changes in both the mean and spread of precipitation and temperature can also contribute to changes in CDHEs.展开更多
The Xinzhai Period (35503400 aBP) belongs to Late Neolithic Culture, which bridges the Longshan Culture and the Xia Culture in the Central Plains of China. By studying the living environment of ancient human beings at...The Xinzhai Period (35503400 aBP) belongs to Late Neolithic Culture, which bridges the Longshan Culture and the Xia Culture in the Central Plains of China. By studying the living environment of ancient human beings at the Xinzhai site, Henan Province, this paper pre-sents the discovery of extreme floods which threatened and destroyed the living environment of the ancient human beings during the Xinzhai Period. Pollen analysis and carbon-oxygen isotope measurement suggest that the climate was warm and wet during the Xinzhai Period, in contrast to the warm and arid climate during the Longshan Culture Period. The frequent flood events were the response of abrupt climate change during the Xinzhai Period. The conclusions drawn from this study not only help better understand the environmental change in the Central Plains of China around 3500 aBP, but also provide important clues to the environmental background for the origin of Chinese civilization.展开更多
The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic conditions....The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic conditions.However,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal heterogeneity.By integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were projected.The findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial variation.In July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,respectively.By 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by one-third.Looking towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the midstream.These findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.展开更多
Given the difficulties in rescuing and ensuring the quality of long-term climate data,current studies on century-scale climate change are usually limited to annual and monthly data,resulting in the poor detection of e...Given the difficulties in rescuing and ensuring the quality of long-term climate data,current studies on century-scale climate change are usually limited to annual and monthly data,resulting in the poor detection of extreme climate events and their changes before 1950.In this study,we reconstructed a daily precipitation series for Tianjin from 15 September 1887 to 31 December 2022 on the basis of the most comprehensive daily precipitation records collected from the Tianjin Meteorological Archive,China,and in reference to the precipitation analysis results based on the datasets developed by the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.06,Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and University of Delaware along with the application of various homogenisation methods for climate series.Our approach provides a complete and reliable century-long daily precipitation series for the study of regional or local extreme weather and climate events.The reconstructed daily dataset reveals that the annual precipitation amount and R95 intensity in Tianjin during 1888-2022 lack significant trends and have values of 0.74±6.99 and-1.84±3.22 mm per decade,respectively.On the annual and seasonal scales,the precipitation amount and R95 intensity,particularly those in autumn,have increased since the latter half of the 20th century relative to those in 1888-1950.However,the increase in precipitation amount and R95 intensity is relatively limited compared with that in atmospheric water vapour content due to surface warming,indicating the highly sensitive response of extreme precipitation events to warming.In addition,the estimates for the return periods of 5,10,20,50 and 100 years covering 1888-2022,1888-1950 and 1951-2022 depict that the intensity of heavy rain and above magnitude was highest in 1888-1950 and decreased in 1951-2022.展开更多
文摘Yopougon, located in the western part of the Autonomous District of Abidjan, is the most heavily populated municipality in Côte d’Ivoire. However, this area is prone to floods and landslides during the rainy season. The study aims to assess recent flood risks in the municipality of Yopougon of the Autonomous District of Abidjan. To achieve this objective, the study analyzed two types of data: daily rainfall from 1971 to 2022 and parameters derived from a Numerical Field and Altitude Model (NFAM). The study examined six rainfall parameters using statistical analysis and combined land use maps obtained from the NFAM of Yopougon. The results indicated that, in 67% of cases, extreme rainfall occurred mainly between week 3 of May and week 1 of July. The peak of extreme rainfall was observed in week 2 of June with 15% of cases. These are critical periods of flood risks in the Autonomous District of Abidjan, especially in Yopougon. In addition, there was variability of rainfall parameters in the Autonomous District of Abidjan. This was characterized by a drop of annual and seasonal rainfall, and an increase of numbers of rainy days. Flood risks in Yopougon are, therefore, due to the regular occurrence of rainy events. Recent floods in Yopougon were caused by normal rains ranging from 55 millimeters (mm) to 153 mm with a return period of less than five years. Abnormal heavy rains of a case study on June 20-21, 2022 in Yopougon were detected by outputs global climate models. Areas of very high risk of flood covered 18% of Yopougon, while 31% were at high risk. Climate information from this study can assist authorities to take in advance adaptation and management measures.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFC3001000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51979295)the Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.2019ZT08G090).
文摘Concurrent compound dry and hot events(CDHEs)amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual extremes.Under climate change,compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global scale.This paper proposes a mathematical method to quantitatively attribute changes of CDHEs to changes of precipitation,change in temperature and change in the dependence between precipitation and temperature.The attribution is achieved by formulating the total differential equation of the return period of CDHEs among Meta-gaussian model.A case study of China is devised based on monthly precipitation and temperature data during the period from 1921 to 2020 for 80 major river basins.It is found that temperature is the main driving factor of increases in CDHEs for 49 major river basins in China,except for the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.In West China,precipitation changes drove the increase in CDHEs in 18 river basins(23%),particularly in parts of North Xinjiang,Qinghai and Gansu.On the other hand,dependence between precipitation and temperature dominated changes of CDHEs in 13 river basins(16%)of China with other factors,including parts of South China,East China and Northwestern China.Furthermore,changes in both the mean and spread of precipitation and temperature can also contribute to changes in CDHEs.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40171096) the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2001BA805B05).
文摘The Xinzhai Period (35503400 aBP) belongs to Late Neolithic Culture, which bridges the Longshan Culture and the Xia Culture in the Central Plains of China. By studying the living environment of ancient human beings at the Xinzhai site, Henan Province, this paper pre-sents the discovery of extreme floods which threatened and destroyed the living environment of the ancient human beings during the Xinzhai Period. Pollen analysis and carbon-oxygen isotope measurement suggest that the climate was warm and wet during the Xinzhai Period, in contrast to the warm and arid climate during the Longshan Culture Period. The frequent flood events were the response of abrupt climate change during the Xinzhai Period. The conclusions drawn from this study not only help better understand the environmental change in the Central Plains of China around 3500 aBP, but also provide important clues to the environmental background for the origin of Chinese civilization.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42371084,42101311,41975100)。
文摘The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic conditions.However,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal heterogeneity.By integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were projected.The findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial variation.In July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,respectively.By 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by one-third.Looking towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the midstream.These findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41905132 and 42375022)the Key Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Detection and Response (CMA2022ZD03).
文摘Given the difficulties in rescuing and ensuring the quality of long-term climate data,current studies on century-scale climate change are usually limited to annual and monthly data,resulting in the poor detection of extreme climate events and their changes before 1950.In this study,we reconstructed a daily precipitation series for Tianjin from 15 September 1887 to 31 December 2022 on the basis of the most comprehensive daily precipitation records collected from the Tianjin Meteorological Archive,China,and in reference to the precipitation analysis results based on the datasets developed by the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.06,Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and University of Delaware along with the application of various homogenisation methods for climate series.Our approach provides a complete and reliable century-long daily precipitation series for the study of regional or local extreme weather and climate events.The reconstructed daily dataset reveals that the annual precipitation amount and R95 intensity in Tianjin during 1888-2022 lack significant trends and have values of 0.74±6.99 and-1.84±3.22 mm per decade,respectively.On the annual and seasonal scales,the precipitation amount and R95 intensity,particularly those in autumn,have increased since the latter half of the 20th century relative to those in 1888-1950.However,the increase in precipitation amount and R95 intensity is relatively limited compared with that in atmospheric water vapour content due to surface warming,indicating the highly sensitive response of extreme precipitation events to warming.In addition,the estimates for the return periods of 5,10,20,50 and 100 years covering 1888-2022,1888-1950 and 1951-2022 depict that the intensity of heavy rain and above magnitude was highest in 1888-1950 and decreased in 1951-2022.
