The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet refle...The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Nio that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline(weak) El Nio event, 'trickiest ever to forecast.'That is understandable, as the science of El Nio is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Nio’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset(as a specific event)should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts(as a process) once the onset has been assured.Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it.Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Nio.展开更多
A brief introduction is given of a global spectral model, its dynamical framework and diabatic physical processes involved. A number of real forecasts are shown to illustrate the forecasting capability of the model f... A brief introduction is given of a global spectral model, its dynamical framework and diabatic physical processes involved. A number of real forecasts are shown to illustrate the forecasting capability of the model for various weather processes. It can even manage to predict some of those typical weather processes in summer which used to be difficult to forecasters.展开更多
文摘The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Nio that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline(weak) El Nio event, 'trickiest ever to forecast.'That is understandable, as the science of El Nio is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Nio’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset(as a specific event)should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts(as a process) once the onset has been assured.Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it.Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Nio.
基金Thid work has been carried out under the support of the KY 85-10 project ,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘 A brief introduction is given of a global spectral model, its dynamical framework and diabatic physical processes involved. A number of real forecasts are shown to illustrate the forecasting capability of the model for various weather processes. It can even manage to predict some of those typical weather processes in summer which used to be difficult to forecasters.
