This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had...This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.展开更多
The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet refle...The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Nio that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline(weak) El Nio event, 'trickiest ever to forecast.'That is understandable, as the science of El Nio is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Nio’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset(as a specific event)should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts(as a process) once the onset has been assured.Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it.Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Nio.展开更多
文摘This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.
文摘The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Nio that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline(weak) El Nio event, 'trickiest ever to forecast.'That is understandable, as the science of El Nio is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Nio’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset(as a specific event)should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts(as a process) once the onset has been assured.Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it.Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Nio.
