Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Hom...Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of Beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.261/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, slightly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern China, and cooling trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of central China and for the spring in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit cooling trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a cooling trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The cooling trend for summers is mainly due to cooling in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to minor effects i展开更多
The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period,in a naïve,uninfected population.It is well-known that the e...The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period,in a naïve,uninfected population.It is well-known that the estimation of this number may vary due to several methodological issues,including different assumptions and choice of parameters,utilized models,used datasets and estimation period.With the spreading of the novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)infection,the reproduction number has been found to vary,reflecting the dynamics of transmission of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the case reporting rate.Due to significant variations in the control strategies,which have been changing over time,and thanks to the introduction of detection technologies that have been rapidly improved,enabling to shorten the time from infection/symptoms onset to diagnosis,leading to faster confirmation of the new coronavirus cases,our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV need to be revised.By using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates,we refit our previously proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th,2020 and re-estimated the effective daily reproduction ratio that better quantifies the evolution of the interventions.We estimated when the effective daily reproduction ratio has fallen below 1 and when the epidemics will peak.Our updated findings suggest that the best measure is persistent and strict self-isolation.The epidemics will continue to grow,and can peak soon with the peak time depending highly on the public health interventions practically implemented.展开更多
A systematic survey of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn concentrations in vegetables from 416 samples （involving 100 varieties） in Beijing was carried out for assessing the potential health risk to local inhabitants. T...A systematic survey of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn concentrations in vegetables from 416 samples （involving 100 varieties） in Beijing was carried out for assessing the potential health risk to local inhabitants. The results indicated that the metal concentrations in vegetables ranged from 〈 0.001 to 0.479 μg/g fresh weight （fw） （As）, 〈 0.001 to 0.101 μg/g fw （Cd）, 〈 0.001 to 1.04 μg/g fw （Cr）, 0.024 to 8.25μg/g fw （Cu）, 0.001 to 1.689 μg/g fw （Ni）, 〈 0.001 to 0.655 μg/g fw （Pb） and 0.01 to 25.6 μg/g fw （Zn）, with average concentrations of 0.013, 0.010, 0.023, 0.51, 0.053, 0.046 and 2.55 μg/g fw, respectively. The results showed that the concentrations of As, Cr, Cu, Cd, Pb and Ni in vegetables from open-fields were all significantly higher than those grown in greenhouses. In addition, in local-produced vegetables, all HMs except Zn were significantly higher than those in provincial vegetables. The estimated daily intake （EDI） of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from vegetables was 0.080, 0.062, 0.142, 3.14, 0.327, 0.283 and 15.7 μg/（kg body weight （bw）.d） for adults, respectively. Arsenic was the major risk contributor for inhabitants since the target hazard quotient based on the weighted average concentration （THQw） of arsenic amounted to 44.3% of the total THQ （TTHQ） value according to average vegetable consumption. The TTHQ was lower than 1 for all age groups, indicating that it was still safe for the general population of Beijing to consume vegetables.展开更多
Homogenization of climate observations remains a challenge to climate change researchers, especially in cases where metadata （e.g., probable dates of break points） are not always available. To examine the inffuence ...Homogenization of climate observations remains a challenge to climate change researchers, especially in cases where metadata （e.g., probable dates of break points） are not always available. To examine the inffuence of metadata on homogenizing climate data, the authors applied the recently developed Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method to the Beijing （BJ） daily temperature series for 1960- 2006 in three cases with different references： （1） 13M-considering metadata at BJ and 12 nearby stations; （2） 13NOM-considering the same 13 stations without metadata; and （3） 21NOM-considering 20 further stations and BJ without metadata. The estimated mean annual, seasonal, and monthly inhomogeneities are similar between the 13M and 13NOM cases, while those in the 21NOM case are slightly different. The detected biases in the BJ series corresponding to the documented relocation dates are as low as -0.71~0C, -0.79~0C, and -0.5~0C for the annual mean in the 3 cases, respectively. Other biases, including those undocumented in metadata, are minor. The results suggest that any major inhomogeneity could be detected via MASH, albeit with minor differences in estimating inhomogeneities based on the different references. The adjusted annual series showed a warming trend of 0.337, 0.316, and 0.365~0C （10 yr）^（-1） for the three cases, respectively, smaller than the estimate of 0.453~0C （10 yr）^（-1） in the original series, mainly due to the relocation-induced biases. The impact of the MASH-type homogenization on estimates of climate extremes in the daily temperature series is also discussed.展开更多
Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960–2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean an...Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960–2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal （winter, spring, summer and autumn） wind speed series were-0.26,-0.39,-0.30,-0.12 and-0.22 m s-1 （10 yr）-1 , respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes （days） also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang （CY）, a station within the central business district （CBD） of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun （MY）. The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about-0.05 m s-1 （10 yr）-1 during 1960–2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure （MSLP） from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966–1975 and 1992–2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.展开更多
Mineral nutrients are fundamentally metals and other inorganic compounds. The life cycle of these mineral nutrients begins in soil, their primary source. Soil provides minerals to plants and through the plants the min...Mineral nutrients are fundamentally metals and other inorganic compounds. The life cycle of these mineral nutrients begins in soil, their primary source. Soil provides minerals to plants and through the plants the minerals go to animals and humans; animal products are also the source of mineral nutrients for humans. Plant foods contain almost all of the mineral nutrients established as essential for human nutrition. They provide much of our skeletal structure, e.g., bones and teeth. They are critical to countless body processes by serving as essential co-factors for a number of enzymes. Humans can not utilize most foods without critical minerals and enzymes responsible for digestion and absorption. Though mineral nutrients are essential nutrients, the body requires them in small, precise amounts. We require them in the form found in crops and they can be classified into three different categories： major, secondary, and micro or trace minerals. This classification is based upon their requirement rather than on their relative importance. Major minerals such as potassium （K） and phosphorus （P） are required in amounts of up to 10 g d-1. The daily requirement of secondary and micro minerals ranges from 400 to 1 500 mg d-1 and 45 ~tg d-1 to 11 mg d-1, respectively. To protect humans from mineral nutrient deficiencies, the key is to consume a variety of foods in modest quantities, such as different whole grains, low fat dairy, and different meats, vegetables and fruits. For insurance purposes, a supplement containing various mineral nutrients can be taken daily.展开更多
Lake Fuxian is the largest deep freshwater lake in China. Although its average water quality meets Class I of the China National Water Quality Standard （CNWQS）, i.e., GB3838-2002, monitoring data indicate that the w...Lake Fuxian is the largest deep freshwater lake in China. Although its average water quality meets Class I of the China National Water Quality Standard （CNWQS）, i.e., GB3838-2002, monitoring data indicate that the water quality approaches the Class II threshold in some areas. Thus it is urgent to reduce the watershed load through the total maximum daily load （TMDL） program. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed for Lake Fuxian, simulating flow circulation and pollutant fate and transport. The model development process consists of several steps, including grid generation, initial and boundary condition configurations, and model calibration processes. The model accurately reproduced the observed water surface elevation, spatiotemporal variations in temperature, and total nitrogen （TN）, total phosphorus （TP）, and chemical oxygen demand （COD） concentrations, suggesting a reasonable numerical representation of the prototype system for further TMDL analyses. The TMDL was calculated using two interpretations of the water quality standards for Class I of the CNWQS based on the maximum instantaneous surface and annual average surface water concentrations. Analysis of the first scenario indicated that the TN, TP and COD loads should be reduced by 66%, 68% and 57%, respectively. Water quality was the highest priority; however, local economic development and cost feasibility for load reduction can pose significant issues. In the second interpretation, the model results showed that, under the existing conditions, the average water quality meets the Class I standard and therefore load reduction is unnecessary. Future studies are needed to conduct risk and cost assessments for realistic decision-making.展开更多
Climate research relies heavily on good quality instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded climate data for China. This is especia...Climate research relies heavily on good quality instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded climate data for China. This is especially true for high-resolution daily data. This work, focuses on identifying an accurate method to produce gridded daily precipitation in China based on the observed data at 753 stations for the period 1951-2005. Five interpolation methods, including ordinary nearest neighbor, local polynomial, radial basis function, inverse distance weighting, and ordinary kriging, have been used and compared. Cross-validation shows that the ordinary kriging based on seasonal semi-variograms gives the best performance, closely followed by the inverse distance weighting with a power of 2. Finally the ordinary kriging is chosen to interpolate the station data to a 18 km× 18 km grid system covering the whole country. Precipitation for each 0.5°×0.5° latitude-longitude block is then obtained by averaging the values at the grid nodes within the block. Owing to the higher station density in the eastern part of the country, the interpolation errors are much smaller than those in the west （west of 100°E）. Excluding 145 stations in the western region, the daily, monthly, and annual relative mean absolute errors of the interpolation for the remaining 608 stations are 74%, 29%, and 16%, respectively. The interpolated daily precipitation has been made available on the internet for the scientific community.展开更多
Concentrations of Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn, Cr and Ni in soybean (Glycine max L.) grown near the Dabaoshan Mine were investigated, and their potential risk to the health of inhabitants was estimated. In the Fandong (FD) and Zho...Concentrations of Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn, Cr and Ni in soybean (Glycine max L.) grown near the Dabaoshan Mine were investigated, and their potential risk to the health of inhabitants was estimated. In the Fandong (FD) and Zhongxin (ZX) villages, which are near the Dabaoshan mineral deposit, concentrations of Pb (0.34 mg kg^(-1) for FD), Cd (0.23 mg kg^(-1) for ZX) and Cr (1.14 and 1.75 mg kg^(-1) for FD and ZX, respectively) in the seeds of soybean exceeded the tolerance limit set by Chinese standards. The estimated daily intakes (EDIs) from consumption of soybean seeds for FD inhabitants were 0.570, 0.170, 38.550, 142.400, 1.910 and 14.530 μg d^(-1) kg^(-1) boby weight for Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn, Cr and Ni, respectively. Our results indicate that soybeans grown in the vicinity of the Dabaoshan Mine accumulate some metals, and the seeds pose a potential health risk to the local inhabitants.展开更多
Two homogenized datasets of daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, mean temperature （Tm）, and min- imum temperature （Tmin） series in China have recently been developed. One is CHTM3.0, based on the Multiple Analysis ...Two homogenized datasets of daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, mean temperature （Tm）, and min- imum temperature （Tmin） series in China have recently been developed. One is CHTM3.0, based on the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method, and includes 753 stations for the period 1960-2013. The other is CHHTD1.0, based on the Relative Homogenization test （RHtest）, and includes 2419 stations over the period 1951-2011. The daily Tmax/Tm/Tmin series at 751 stations, which are in both datasets, are chosen and compared against the raw dataset, with regard to the number of breakpoints, long-term climate trends, and their geographical patterns. The results indicate that some robust break points associated with relocations can be detected, the inhomogeneities are removed by both the MASH and RHtest method, and the data quality is improved in both homogenized datasets. However, the differences between CHTM3.0 and CHHTD1.0 are notable. By and large, in CHHTD1.0, the break points detected are fewer, but the adjustments for inhomogeneities and the resultant changes of linear trend estimates are larger. In contrast, CHTM3.0 provides more reasonable geographical patterns of long-term climate trends over the region. The reasons for the differences between the datasets include： （1） different algorithms for creating reference series for adjusting the candidate series--more neighboring stations used in MASH and hence larger-scale regional signals retained; （2） different algorithms for cMculating the adjustments--larger adjustments in RHtest in general, partly due to the individual local reference information used; and （3） different rules for judging inhomogeneity--all detected break points are adjusted in CHTM3.0, based on MASH, while a number of break points detected via RHtest but without supporting metadata are overlooked in CHHTD1.0. The present results suggest that CHTM3.0 is more suitable for analyses of large-scale climate change in China, while CHHTD1.0 contains more origina展开更多
The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)recently produced a CMA Global Atmospheric Interim Reanalysis(CRAI)dataset for the years 2007–2016.A comprehensive evaluation of the ability of CRAI to capture the spatiote...The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)recently produced a CMA Global Atmospheric Interim Reanalysis(CRAI)dataset for the years 2007–2016.A comprehensive evaluation of the ability of CRAI to capture the spatiotemporal variability of observed precipitation,in terms of both mean states and extreme indicators over China,is performed.Comparisons are made with other current reanalysis datasets,namely,the ECMWF interim reanalysis(ERAI),Japanese 55-yr reanalysis(JRA55),NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR),and NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2(MERRA2),as well as NCEP Climate Prediction Center(CPC)observations.The results show that,for daily variations of rainfall during warm seasons in eastern China,CRAI and CFSR overestimate the precipitation of the main rain belt,while the overestimation is confined to the area south of 25°N in JRA55 but north of 24°N in MERRA2;whereas ERAI tends to underestimate the precipitation in most regions of eastern China.Two extreme metrics,the total amount of precipitation on days where daily precipitation exceeds the 95 th percentile(R95 pTOT)and the number of consecutive dry days(CDDs)in one month,are examined to assess the performance of reanalysis datasets.In terms of extreme events,CRAI,ERAI,and JRA55 tend to underestimate the R95 pTOT in most of eastern China,whereas more frequent extreme rainfall can be found in most regions of China in both CFSR and MERRA2;and all of the reanalyses underestimate the CDDs.Among the reanalysis products,CRAI and JRA55 show better agreement with the observed R95 pTOT than the other datasets,with fewer biases,higher correlation coefficients,and much more similar linear trend patterns,while ERAI stands out in better capturing the amount and temporal variations of the observed CDDs.展开更多
Leafy vegetable production under controlled environment using artificial lighting has many advantages over conventional greenhouses and open-field production.However,high initial investment and operation costs are res...Leafy vegetable production under controlled environment using artificial lighting has many advantages over conventional greenhouses and open-field production.However,high initial investment and operation costs are restricting the wide application of this technology.In order to design an optimal artificial lighting environment for lettuce production,effects of different combinations of light intensity,photoperiod,and light quality on growth,quality,photosynthesis,and energy use efficiency of lettuce(Lactuca sativa L.cv Ziwei)were investigated under a closed plant factory.Lettuce transplants were grown under photosynthetic photon flux density(PPFD)at 150μmol/m^(2)·s,200μmol/m^(2)·s,250μmol/m^(2)·s,and 300μmol/m^(2)·s provided by fluorescent lamps(FL)with a red to blue ratio(R:B ratio)of 1.8 and light-emitting diode(LED)lamps with R:B ratio of 1.2 and 2.2,in combination with photoperiod of 12 and 16 h/d.In order to examine the“long term”photosynthetic characteristics,net photosynthetic rates of hydroponic lettuce leaves were continuously measured for 2 d(15^(th) and 16^(th) day after transplanting)before harvest.There was no difference in leaf fresh weight(FW)between PPFD of 250μmol/m^(2)·s and 300μmol/m^(2)·s with photoperiod of 16 h/d,regardless of light quality,and same results showed in contents of nitrate,soluble sugar,and vitamin C,respectively.The results of continuous measurements of net photosynthetic rate of lettuce leaves before harvest indicated that plants grown at PPFD of 250μmol/m^(2)·s had consistently higher compared to those grown at PPFD of 300μmol/m^(2)·s.Combining the results from growth,photosynthesis,quality,and energy consumption,it can be concluded that PPFD at 250μmol/m^(2)·s with photoperiod of 16 h/d under LED with R:B ratio of 2.2 is a suitable light environment for maximum growth and high quality of commercial lettuce(cv.Ziwei)production under indoor controlled environment.展开更多
Purpose:The increase in plug-in electric vehicles(PEVs)is likely to see a noteworthy impact on the distribution system due to high electric power consumption during charging and uncertainty in charging behavior.To add...Purpose:The increase in plug-in electric vehicles(PEVs)is likely to see a noteworthy impact on the distribution system due to high electric power consumption during charging and uncertainty in charging behavior.To address this problem,the present work mainly focuses on optimal integration of distributed generators(DG)into radial distribution systems in the presence of PEV loads with their charging behavior under daily load pattern including load models by considering the daily(24 h)power loss and voltage improvement of the system as objectives for better system performance.Design/methodology/approach:To achieve the desired outcomes,an efficient weighted factor multi-objective function is modeled.Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)and Butterfly Optimization(BO)algorithms are selected and implemented to minimize the objectives of the system.A repetitive backward-forward sweep-based load flow has been introduced to calculate the daily power loss and bus voltages of the radial distribution system.The simulations are carried out using MATLAB software.Findings:The simulation outcomes reveal that the proposed approach definitely improved the system performance in all aspects.Among PSO and BO,BO is comparatively successful in achieving the desired objectives.Originality/value:The main contribution of this paper is the formulation of the multi-objective function that can address daily active power loss and voltage deviation under 24-h load pattern including grouping of residential,industrial and commercial loads.Introduction of repetitive backward-forward sweep-based load flow and the modeling of PEV load with two different charging scenarios.展开更多
Changes of temperature extremes over China were evaluated using daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 591 stations for the period 1961-2002. A set of indices of warm extremes, cold extremes and daily tempera...Changes of temperature extremes over China were evaluated using daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 591 stations for the period 1961-2002. A set of indices of warm extremes, cold extremes and daily temperature range （DTR） extremes was studied with a focus on trends. The results showed that the frequency of warm extremes （F WE） increased obviously in most parts of China, and the intensity of warm extremes （I WE） increased significantly in northern China. The opposite distribution was found in the frequency and intensity of cold extremes. The frequency of high DTR extremes was relatively uniform with that of intensity： an obvious increasing trend was located over western China and the east coast, while significant decreases occurred in central, southeastern and northeastern China; the opposite distribution was found for low DTR extreme days. Seasonal trends illustrated that both F WE and I WE showed signifi- cant increasing trends, especially over northeastern China and along the Yangtze Valley basin in spring and winter. A correlation technique was used to link extreme temperature anomalies over China with global temperature anomalies. Three key regions were identified, as follows： northeastern China and its coastal areas, the high-latitude regions above 40~0N, and southwestern China and the equatorial eastern Pacific.展开更多
It has been theoretically proven that at a high threshold an approximate expression for a quantile of GEV （Generalized Extreme Values） distribution can be derived from GPD （Generalized Pareto Distribution）. Afterw...It has been theoretically proven that at a high threshold an approximate expression for a quantile of GEV （Generalized Extreme Values） distribution can be derived from GPD （Generalized Pareto Distribution）. Afterwards, a quantile of extreme rainfall events in a certain return period is found using L-moment estimation and extreme rainfall events simulated by GPD and GEV, with all aspects of their results compared. Numerical simulations show that POT （Peaks Over Threshold）-based GPD is advantageous in its simple operation and subjected to practically no effect of the sample size of the primitive series, producing steady high-precision fittings in the whole field of values （including the high-end heavy tailed）. In comparison, BM （Block Maximum）-based GEV is limited, to some extent, to the probability and quantile simulation, thereby showing that GPD is an extension of GEV, the former being of greater utility and higher significance to climate research compared to the latter.展开更多
A wavelet method was applied to detect inhomogeneities in daily meteorological series, data which are being increasingly applied in studies of climate extremes. The wavelet method has been applied to a few well- estab...A wavelet method was applied to detect inhomogeneities in daily meteorological series, data which are being increasingly applied in studies of climate extremes. The wavelet method has been applied to a few well- established long-term daily temperature series back to the 18th century, which have been ＂homogenized＂ with conventional approaches. Various types of problems remaining in the series were revealed with the wavelet method. Their influences on analyses of change in climate extremes are discussed. The results have importance for understanding issues in conventional climate data processing and for development of improved methods of homogenization in order to improve analysis of climate extremes based on daily data.展开更多
Inhomogeneities in the temperature series from Beijing and Shanghai are analyzed, using the detailed histories of both sets of observations. The major corrections for different periods range from ?0.33 to 0.6°C f...Inhomogeneities in the temperature series from Beijing and Shanghai are analyzed, using the detailed histories of both sets of observations. The major corrections for different periods range from ?0.33 to 0.6°C for Beijing and ?0.33 to 0.3°C for Shanghai, Annual mean and extreme temperature series are deduced from the daily observations and trends in the adjusted and unadjusted series are compared. The adjusted yearly mean temperatures show a warming trend of 0.5°C/ century since the turn of this century and an enhanced one of 2.0°C/ century since the 1960s. In contrast, the unadjusted data show a twice this value trend for Shanghai but little trend for Beijing at the long-term scale and overestimate the recent warming by 50%–130%. Beijing experienced a decrease of frequency of the extremes together with a cooling during the 1940s–1970s and an increase of frequency of extremes together with a warming since then. The trends of frequency of extremes at Shanghai were more or less opposite. It is implied that the regional trends of strong weather variations may be different even when the regional mean temperatures coherently change. Key words Inhomogeneity - Daily temperature series - Climatic warming - Extreme temperature The study was supported by the China NKBRSF Project G 1999043400, IAP/ DF and CAS project (KZ951-A1-402).展开更多
The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by ur- banization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of ho- mogenized daily series of maximum and minimum ...The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by ur- banization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of ho- mogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 mete- orological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP- Ⅱ reanalysis data （R-2）, and the data of simulations by regional climate model （RegCM3）. The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961-2010 and 1951-2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in an- nual and winter diurnal temperature range （DTR） are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature （TNn） are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights （TN90p） contributed by urbaniza- tion is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China 2009CB421401 and 2006CB400503
文摘Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of Beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.261/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, slightly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern China, and cooling trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of central China and for the spring in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit cooling trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a cooling trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The cooling trend for summers is mainly due to cooling in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to minor effects i
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers:11631012(YX,ST),61772017(ST))by the Canada Research Chair Program(grant number:230720(JW)the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(Grant number:105588-2011(JW).
文摘The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period,in a naïve,uninfected population.It is well-known that the estimation of this number may vary due to several methodological issues,including different assumptions and choice of parameters,utilized models,used datasets and estimation period.With the spreading of the novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)infection,the reproduction number has been found to vary,reflecting the dynamics of transmission of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the case reporting rate.Due to significant variations in the control strategies,which have been changing over time,and thanks to the introduction of detection technologies that have been rapidly improved,enabling to shorten the time from infection/symptoms onset to diagnosis,leading to faster confirmation of the new coronavirus cases,our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV need to be revised.By using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates,we refit our previously proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th,2020 and re-estimated the effective daily reproduction ratio that better quantifies the evolution of the interventions.We estimated when the effective daily reproduction ratio has fallen below 1 and when the epidemics will peak.Our updated findings suggest that the best measure is persistent and strict self-isolation.The epidemics will continue to grow,and can peak soon with the peak time depending highly on the public health interventions practically implemented.
基金supported by the Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS) (No. 08R8B000SA)the Beijing Commission of Science and Technology (No.D0706007040291-02)the Key Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX1-YW-06-03)
文摘A systematic survey of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn concentrations in vegetables from 416 samples （involving 100 varieties） in Beijing was carried out for assessing the potential health risk to local inhabitants. The results indicated that the metal concentrations in vegetables ranged from 〈 0.001 to 0.479 μg/g fresh weight （fw） （As）, 〈 0.001 to 0.101 μg/g fw （Cd）, 〈 0.001 to 1.04 μg/g fw （Cr）, 0.024 to 8.25μg/g fw （Cu）, 0.001 to 1.689 μg/g fw （Ni）, 〈 0.001 to 0.655 μg/g fw （Pb） and 0.01 to 25.6 μg/g fw （Zn）, with average concentrations of 0.013, 0.010, 0.023, 0.51, 0.053, 0.046 and 2.55 μg/g fw, respectively. The results showed that the concentrations of As, Cr, Cu, Cd, Pb and Ni in vegetables from open-fields were all significantly higher than those grown in greenhouses. In addition, in local-produced vegetables, all HMs except Zn were significantly higher than those in provincial vegetables. The estimated daily intake （EDI） of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from vegetables was 0.080, 0.062, 0.142, 3.14, 0.327, 0.283 and 15.7 μg/（kg body weight （bw）.d） for adults, respectively. Arsenic was the major risk contributor for inhabitants since the target hazard quotient based on the weighted average concentration （THQw） of arsenic amounted to 44.3% of the total THQ （TTHQ） value according to average vegetable consumption. The TTHQ was lower than 1 for all age groups, indicating that it was still safe for the general population of Beijing to consume vegetables.
基金supported by grants from the National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421401/2006CB400503)China Meteorological Administration (GYHY200706001)
文摘Homogenization of climate observations remains a challenge to climate change researchers, especially in cases where metadata （e.g., probable dates of break points） are not always available. To examine the inffuence of metadata on homogenizing climate data, the authors applied the recently developed Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method to the Beijing （BJ） daily temperature series for 1960- 2006 in three cases with different references： （1） 13M-considering metadata at BJ and 12 nearby stations; （2） 13NOM-considering the same 13 stations without metadata; and （3） 21NOM-considering 20 further stations and BJ without metadata. The estimated mean annual, seasonal, and monthly inhomogeneities are similar between the 13M and 13NOM cases, while those in the 21NOM case are slightly different. The detected biases in the BJ series corresponding to the documented relocation dates are as low as -0.71~0C, -0.79~0C, and -0.5~0C for the annual mean in the 3 cases, respectively. Other biases, including those undocumented in metadata, are minor. The results suggest that any major inhomogeneity could be detected via MASH, albeit with minor differences in estimating inhomogeneities based on the different references. The adjusted annual series showed a warming trend of 0.337, 0.316, and 0.365~0C （10 yr）^（-1） for the three cases, respectively, smaller than the estimate of 0.453~0C （10 yr）^（-1） in the original series, mainly due to the relocation-induced biases. The impact of the MASH-type homogenization on estimates of climate extremes in the daily temperature series is also discussed.
基金supported by grants from the MOST NBRPC(2009CB421401)CNNSF(41075063) and the CMA Institute of Urban Meteorology
文摘Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960–2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal （winter, spring, summer and autumn） wind speed series were-0.26,-0.39,-0.30,-0.12 and-0.22 m s-1 （10 yr）-1 , respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes （days） also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang （CY）, a station within the central business district （CBD） of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun （MY）. The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about-0.05 m s-1 （10 yr）-1 during 1960–2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure （MSLP） from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966–1975 and 1992–2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.
文摘Mineral nutrients are fundamentally metals and other inorganic compounds. The life cycle of these mineral nutrients begins in soil, their primary source. Soil provides minerals to plants and through the plants the minerals go to animals and humans; animal products are also the source of mineral nutrients for humans. Plant foods contain almost all of the mineral nutrients established as essential for human nutrition. They provide much of our skeletal structure, e.g., bones and teeth. They are critical to countless body processes by serving as essential co-factors for a number of enzymes. Humans can not utilize most foods without critical minerals and enzymes responsible for digestion and absorption. Though mineral nutrients are essential nutrients, the body requires them in small, precise amounts. We require them in the form found in crops and they can be classified into three different categories： major, secondary, and micro or trace minerals. This classification is based upon their requirement rather than on their relative importance. Major minerals such as potassium （K） and phosphorus （P） are required in amounts of up to 10 g d-1. The daily requirement of secondary and micro minerals ranges from 400 to 1 500 mg d-1 and 45 ~tg d-1 to 11 mg d-1, respectively. To protect humans from mineral nutrient deficiencies, the key is to consume a variety of foods in modest quantities, such as different whole grains, low fat dairy, and different meats, vegetables and fruits. For insurance purposes, a supplement containing various mineral nutrients can be taken daily.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41101180)the China National Water Pollution Control Program (No.2010ZX07102-006)
文摘Lake Fuxian is the largest deep freshwater lake in China. Although its average water quality meets Class I of the China National Water Quality Standard （CNWQS）, i.e., GB3838-2002, monitoring data indicate that the water quality approaches the Class II threshold in some areas. Thus it is urgent to reduce the watershed load through the total maximum daily load （TMDL） program. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed for Lake Fuxian, simulating flow circulation and pollutant fate and transport. The model development process consists of several steps, including grid generation, initial and boundary condition configurations, and model calibration processes. The model accurately reproduced the observed water surface elevation, spatiotemporal variations in temperature, and total nitrogen （TN）, total phosphorus （TP）, and chemical oxygen demand （COD） concentrations, suggesting a reasonable numerical representation of the prototype system for further TMDL analyses. The TMDL was calculated using two interpretations of the water quality standards for Class I of the CNWQS based on the maximum instantaneous surface and annual average surface water concentrations. Analysis of the first scenario indicated that the TN, TP and COD loads should be reduced by 66%, 68% and 57%, respectively. Water quality was the highest priority; however, local economic development and cost feasibility for load reduction can pose significant issues. In the second interpretation, the model results showed that, under the existing conditions, the average water quality meets the Class I standard and therefore load reduction is unnecessary. Future studies are needed to conduct risk and cost assessments for realistic decision-making.
基金supported by the Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and High Education through a grant to D.L.Chen.C.-H.Ho is supported by CATER 2006-4204
文摘Climate research relies heavily on good quality instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded climate data for China. This is especially true for high-resolution daily data. This work, focuses on identifying an accurate method to produce gridded daily precipitation in China based on the observed data at 753 stations for the period 1951-2005. Five interpolation methods, including ordinary nearest neighbor, local polynomial, radial basis function, inverse distance weighting, and ordinary kriging, have been used and compared. Cross-validation shows that the ordinary kriging based on seasonal semi-variograms gives the best performance, closely followed by the inverse distance weighting with a power of 2. Finally the ordinary kriging is chosen to interpolate the station data to a 18 km× 18 km grid system covering the whole country. Precipitation for each 0.5°×0.5° latitude-longitude block is then obtained by averaging the values at the grid nodes within the block. Owing to the higher station density in the eastern part of the country, the interpolation errors are much smaller than those in the west （west of 100°E）. Excluding 145 stations in the western region, the daily, monthly, and annual relative mean absolute errors of the interpolation for the remaining 608 stations are 74%, 29%, and 16%, respectively. The interpolated daily precipitation has been made available on the internet for the scientific community.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40871221)
文摘Concentrations of Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn, Cr and Ni in soybean (Glycine max L.) grown near the Dabaoshan Mine were investigated, and their potential risk to the health of inhabitants was estimated. In the Fandong (FD) and Zhongxin (ZX) villages, which are near the Dabaoshan mineral deposit, concentrations of Pb (0.34 mg kg^(-1) for FD), Cd (0.23 mg kg^(-1) for ZX) and Cr (1.14 and 1.75 mg kg^(-1) for FD and ZX, respectively) in the seeds of soybean exceeded the tolerance limit set by Chinese standards. The estimated daily intakes (EDIs) from consumption of soybean seeds for FD inhabitants were 0.570, 0.170, 38.550, 142.400, 1.910 and 14.530 μg d^(-1) kg^(-1) boby weight for Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn, Cr and Ni, respectively. Our results indicate that soybeans grown in the vicinity of the Dabaoshan Mine accumulate some metals, and the seeds pose a potential health risk to the local inhabitants.
基金Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05090100)National Science and Technology Support Program of China(2012BAC22B04)+1 种基金China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201206013)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41505071)
文摘Two homogenized datasets of daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, mean temperature （Tm）, and min- imum temperature （Tmin） series in China have recently been developed. One is CHTM3.0, based on the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method, and includes 753 stations for the period 1960-2013. The other is CHHTD1.0, based on the Relative Homogenization test （RHtest）, and includes 2419 stations over the period 1951-2011. The daily Tmax/Tm/Tmin series at 751 stations, which are in both datasets, are chosen and compared against the raw dataset, with regard to the number of breakpoints, long-term climate trends, and their geographical patterns. The results indicate that some robust break points associated with relocations can be detected, the inhomogeneities are removed by both the MASH and RHtest method, and the data quality is improved in both homogenized datasets. However, the differences between CHTM3.0 and CHHTD1.0 are notable. By and large, in CHHTD1.0, the break points detected are fewer, but the adjustments for inhomogeneities and the resultant changes of linear trend estimates are larger. In contrast, CHTM3.0 provides more reasonable geographical patterns of long-term climate trends over the region. The reasons for the differences between the datasets include： （1） different algorithms for creating reference series for adjusting the candidate series--more neighboring stations used in MASH and hence larger-scale regional signals retained; （2） different algorithms for cMculating the adjustments--larger adjustments in RHtest in general, partly due to the individual local reference information used; and （3） different rules for judging inhomogeneity--all detected break points are adjusted in CHTM3.0, based on MASH, while a number of break points detected via RHtest but without supporting metadata are overlooked in CHHTD1.0. The present results suggest that CHTM3.0 is more suitable for analyses of large-scale climate change in China, while CHHTD1.0 contains more origina
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201506002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41790475,41675094,and 41605066).
文摘The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)recently produced a CMA Global Atmospheric Interim Reanalysis(CRAI)dataset for the years 2007–2016.A comprehensive evaluation of the ability of CRAI to capture the spatiotemporal variability of observed precipitation,in terms of both mean states and extreme indicators over China,is performed.Comparisons are made with other current reanalysis datasets,namely,the ECMWF interim reanalysis(ERAI),Japanese 55-yr reanalysis(JRA55),NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR),and NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2(MERRA2),as well as NCEP Climate Prediction Center(CPC)observations.The results show that,for daily variations of rainfall during warm seasons in eastern China,CRAI and CFSR overestimate the precipitation of the main rain belt,while the overestimation is confined to the area south of 25°N in JRA55 but north of 24°N in MERRA2;whereas ERAI tends to underestimate the precipitation in most regions of eastern China.Two extreme metrics,the total amount of precipitation on days where daily precipitation exceeds the 95 th percentile(R95 pTOT)and the number of consecutive dry days(CDDs)in one month,are examined to assess the performance of reanalysis datasets.In terms of extreme events,CRAI,ERAI,and JRA55 tend to underestimate the R95 pTOT in most of eastern China,whereas more frequent extreme rainfall can be found in most regions of China in both CFSR and MERRA2;and all of the reanalyses underestimate the CDDs.Among the reanalysis products,CRAI and JRA55 show better agreement with the observed R95 pTOT than the other datasets,with fewer biases,higher correlation coefficients,and much more similar linear trend patterns,while ERAI stands out in better capturing the amount and temporal variations of the observed CDDs.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program(“863”Program)of China(2013AA103005).
文摘Leafy vegetable production under controlled environment using artificial lighting has many advantages over conventional greenhouses and open-field production.However,high initial investment and operation costs are restricting the wide application of this technology.In order to design an optimal artificial lighting environment for lettuce production,effects of different combinations of light intensity,photoperiod,and light quality on growth,quality,photosynthesis,and energy use efficiency of lettuce(Lactuca sativa L.cv Ziwei)were investigated under a closed plant factory.Lettuce transplants were grown under photosynthetic photon flux density(PPFD)at 150μmol/m^(2)·s,200μmol/m^(2)·s,250μmol/m^(2)·s,and 300μmol/m^(2)·s provided by fluorescent lamps(FL)with a red to blue ratio(R:B ratio)of 1.8 and light-emitting diode(LED)lamps with R:B ratio of 1.2 and 2.2,in combination with photoperiod of 12 and 16 h/d.In order to examine the“long term”photosynthetic characteristics,net photosynthetic rates of hydroponic lettuce leaves were continuously measured for 2 d(15^(th) and 16^(th) day after transplanting)before harvest.There was no difference in leaf fresh weight(FW)between PPFD of 250μmol/m^(2)·s and 300μmol/m^(2)·s with photoperiod of 16 h/d,regardless of light quality,and same results showed in contents of nitrate,soluble sugar,and vitamin C,respectively.The results of continuous measurements of net photosynthetic rate of lettuce leaves before harvest indicated that plants grown at PPFD of 250μmol/m^(2)·s had consistently higher compared to those grown at PPFD of 300μmol/m^(2)·s.Combining the results from growth,photosynthesis,quality,and energy consumption,it can be concluded that PPFD at 250μmol/m^(2)·s with photoperiod of 16 h/d under LED with R:B ratio of 2.2 is a suitable light environment for maximum growth and high quality of commercial lettuce(cv.Ziwei)production under indoor controlled environment.
基金Proposal Number:EEQ-2016-000263,Financially supported by Department of Science and Technology(DST),Science and Engineering Research Board(SERB),Govt.of India,New Delhi,India.
文摘Purpose:The increase in plug-in electric vehicles(PEVs)is likely to see a noteworthy impact on the distribution system due to high electric power consumption during charging and uncertainty in charging behavior.To address this problem,the present work mainly focuses on optimal integration of distributed generators(DG)into radial distribution systems in the presence of PEV loads with their charging behavior under daily load pattern including load models by considering the daily(24 h)power loss and voltage improvement of the system as objectives for better system performance.Design/methodology/approach:To achieve the desired outcomes,an efficient weighted factor multi-objective function is modeled.Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)and Butterfly Optimization(BO)algorithms are selected and implemented to minimize the objectives of the system.A repetitive backward-forward sweep-based load flow has been introduced to calculate the daily power loss and bus voltages of the radial distribution system.The simulations are carried out using MATLAB software.Findings:The simulation outcomes reveal that the proposed approach definitely improved the system performance in all aspects.Among PSO and BO,BO is comparatively successful in achieving the desired objectives.Originality/value:The main contribution of this paper is the formulation of the multi-objective function that can address daily active power loss and voltage deviation under 24-h load pattern including grouping of residential,industrial and commercial loads.Introduction of repetitive backward-forward sweep-based load flow and the modeling of PEV load with two different charging scenarios.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40675042, 40901016 and 40805041
文摘Changes of temperature extremes over China were evaluated using daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 591 stations for the period 1961-2002. A set of indices of warm extremes, cold extremes and daily temperature range （DTR） extremes was studied with a focus on trends. The results showed that the frequency of warm extremes （F WE） increased obviously in most parts of China, and the intensity of warm extremes （I WE） increased significantly in northern China. The opposite distribution was found in the frequency and intensity of cold extremes. The frequency of high DTR extremes was relatively uniform with that of intensity： an obvious increasing trend was located over western China and the east coast, while significant decreases occurred in central, southeastern and northeastern China; the opposite distribution was found for low DTR extreme days. Seasonal trends illustrated that both F WE and I WE showed signifi- cant increasing trends, especially over northeastern China and along the Yangtze Valley basin in spring and winter. A correlation technique was used to link extreme temperature anomalies over China with global temperature anomalies. Three key regions were identified, as follows： northeastern China and its coastal areas, the high-latitude regions above 40~0N, and southwestern China and the equatorial eastern Pacific.
基金supported jointly Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40675043） Program of the Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster （Grant No. KLME050209）.
文摘It has been theoretically proven that at a high threshold an approximate expression for a quantile of GEV （Generalized Extreme Values） distribution can be derived from GPD （Generalized Pareto Distribution）. Afterwards, a quantile of extreme rainfall events in a certain return period is found using L-moment estimation and extreme rainfall events simulated by GPD and GEV, with all aspects of their results compared. Numerical simulations show that POT （Peaks Over Threshold）-based GPD is advantageous in its simple operation and subjected to practically no effect of the sample size of the primitive series, producing steady high-precision fittings in the whole field of values （including the high-end heavy tailed）. In comparison, BM （Block Maximum）-based GEV is limited, to some extent, to the probability and quantile simulation, thereby showing that GPD is an extension of GEV, the former being of greater utility and higher significance to climate research compared to the latter.
文摘A wavelet method was applied to detect inhomogeneities in daily meteorological series, data which are being increasingly applied in studies of climate extremes. The wavelet method has been applied to a few well- established long-term daily temperature series back to the 18th century, which have been ＂homogenized＂ with conventional approaches. Various types of problems remaining in the series were revealed with the wavelet method. Their influences on analyses of change in climate extremes are discussed. The results have importance for understanding issues in conventional climate data processing and for development of improved methods of homogenization in order to improve analysis of climate extremes based on daily data.
基金the China NKBRSF Project G1999043400, IAP / DF and CAS project(KZ951-A1-402).
文摘Inhomogeneities in the temperature series from Beijing and Shanghai are analyzed, using the detailed histories of both sets of observations. The major corrections for different periods range from ?0.33 to 0.6°C for Beijing and ?0.33 to 0.3°C for Shanghai, Annual mean and extreme temperature series are deduced from the daily observations and trends in the adjusted and unadjusted series are compared. The adjusted yearly mean temperatures show a warming trend of 0.5°C/ century since the turn of this century and an enhanced one of 2.0°C/ century since the 1960s. In contrast, the unadjusted data show a twice this value trend for Shanghai but little trend for Beijing at the long-term scale and overestimate the recent warming by 50%–130%. Beijing experienced a decrease of frequency of the extremes together with a cooling during the 1940s–1970s and an increase of frequency of extremes together with a warming since then. The trends of frequency of extremes at Shanghai were more or less opposite. It is implied that the regional trends of strong weather variations may be different even when the regional mean temperatures coherently change. Key words Inhomogeneity - Daily temperature series - Climatic warming - Extreme temperature The study was supported by the China NKBRSF Project G 1999043400, IAP/ DF and CAS project (KZ951-A1-402).
基金Urban Meteorological Research Fund of CMA,No.UMRF201009
文摘The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by ur- banization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of ho- mogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 mete- orological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP- Ⅱ reanalysis data （R-2）, and the data of simulations by regional climate model （RegCM3）. The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961-2010 and 1951-2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in an- nual and winter diurnal temperature range （DTR） are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature （TNn） are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights （TN90p） contributed by urbaniza- tion is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.
