As an apex predator the Amur tiger(Panthera tigris altaica)could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia.Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century,tige...As an apex predator the Amur tiger(Panthera tigris altaica)could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia.Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century,tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China.To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range,reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions.Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture(SECR)methods.A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population.Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11400 km2 state space,density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km^(2) in 2013 and 2014,respectively,corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population.In a maximum likelihood framework,we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km^(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27,in 2013 and 2014,respectively.These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East.This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China,and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China.展开更多
Objective This study is to estimate the population size and prevalence of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 （HSV-2） infections among female sex workers （FSWs） in Kaiyuan, Yunnan Province, China. Methods Eight cr...Objective This study is to estimate the population size and prevalence of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 （HSV-2） infections among female sex workers （FSWs） in Kaiyuan, Yunnan Province, China. Methods Eight cross-sectional studies were conducted among FSWs in Kaiyuan from 2006 to 2009. Based on the data from two study time points each year, the total numbers of FSWs and HIV positive FSWs were estimated by using the capture-recapture technique （CR）. Results Estimated sizes of FSWs in Kaiyuan were 1 629, 1 672, 1 186, and 1 014 in the respective years from 2006 to 2009. Although the crude prevalence rates of HIV and HSV-2 varied over time, the adjusted prevalence among this population was relatively stable at 10%-12% and the adjusted HSV-2 prevalence ranged from 67% to72%. Conclusion The reason for the slight decrease of the size of the FSW population is unknown. The adjusted prevalence rates of HIV and HSV-2 among them were stable over the course of this study.展开更多
The North Chinese leopard(Panthera pardus japonensis),the least-known big cat,disappeared in most historical range for decades,following the development of modern civilization.Unfortunately,we have scarce knowledge ab...The North Chinese leopard(Panthera pardus japonensis),the least-known big cat,disappeared in most historical range for decades,following the development of modern civilization.Unfortunately,we have scarce knowledge about the status of this big cat so far,apart from anecdotal reports.In this study,we investigated density,distribution,and habitat use of the leopard,the apex predator,in a complex forest landscape in the Loess Plateau.We used a camera-trapping network to obtain population estimates for leopards over 2 years through spatially explicit capture-recapture models.Our results,based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian/MCMC methods,reveal that the largest wild population of the leopard was found widely distributed in remnant forests in central Loess plateau.The population is increasing in our study area,and the density of leopards(1.70(SE=0.48)−2.40(SE=0.67)/100 km^(2))is higher than other areas of China.According to the analysis of 2 seasonal occupancy models,prey species drive partially the leopard habitat use,predicting that the big cat thrives from the recovery of prey community.However,human disturbances,especially oil wells,seem to have negative impacts on the habitat use of leopards.Specifically,it is necessary to have joint efforts by the government and researchers to improve human disturbances management and prey species population density,as well as strengthen the investment in research on the North Chinese leopard,which could all further strengthen protection ability and ensure the long-term survival of this species.展开更多
We consider the problem of population estimation using capture-recapture data, where capture probabilities can vary between sampling occasions and behavioural responses. The original model is not identifiable without ...We consider the problem of population estimation using capture-recapture data, where capture probabilities can vary between sampling occasions and behavioural responses. The original model is not identifiable without further restrictions. The novelty of this article is to expand the current research practice by developing a hierarchical Bayesian approach with the assumption that the odds of recapture bears a constant relationship to the odds of initial capture. A real-data example of deer mice population is given to illustrate the proposed method. Three simulation studies are developed to inspect the performance of the proposed Bayesian estimates. Compared with the maximum likelihood estimates discussed in Chao et al. (2000), the hierarchical Bayesian estimate provides reasonably better population estimation with less mean square error;moreover, it is sturdy to underline relationship between the initial and re-capture probabilities. The sensitivity study shows that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to the choice of hyper-parameters. The third simulation study reveals that both relative bias and relative RMSE approach zero as population size increases. A R-package is developed and used in both data example and simulation.展开更多
The main purpose of this paper is using capture-recapture data to estimate the population size when some covariate values are missing, possibly non-ignorable. Conditional likelihood method is adopted, with a sub-model...The main purpose of this paper is using capture-recapture data to estimate the population size when some covariate values are missing, possibly non-ignorable. Conditional likelihood method is adopted, with a sub-model describing various missing mechanisms. The derived estimate is proved to be asymptotically normal, and simulation studies via a version of EM algorithm show that it is approximately unbiased. The proposed method is applied to a real example, and the result is compared with previous ones.展开更多
Mark-recapture models are extensively used in quantitative population ecology, providing estimates of population vital rates, such as survival, that are difficult to obtain using other methods. Vital rates are commonl...Mark-recapture models are extensively used in quantitative population ecology, providing estimates of population vital rates, such as survival, that are difficult to obtain using other methods. Vital rates are commonly modeled as functions of explanatory covariates, adding considerable flexibility to mark-recapture models, but also increasing the subjectivity and complexity of the modeling process. Consequently, model selection and the evaluation of covariate structure remain critical aspects of mark-recapture modeling. The difficulties involved in model selection are compounded in Cormack-Jolly-Seber models because they are composed of separate sub-models for survival and recapture probabilities, which are conceptualized independently even though their parameters are not statistically independent. The construction of models as combinations of sub-models, together with multiple potential covariates, can lead to a large model set. Although desirable, estimation of the parameters of all models may not be feasible. Strategies to search a model space and base inference on a subset of all models exist and enjoy widespread use. However, even though the methods used to search a model space can be expected to influence parameter estimation, the assessment of covariate importance, and therefore the ecological interpretation of the modeling results, the performance of these strategies has received limited investigation. We present a new strategy for searching the space of a candidate set of Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and explore its performance relative to existing strategies using computer simulation. The new strategy provides an improved assessment of the importance of covariates and covariate combinations used to model survival and recapture probabilities, while requiring only a modest increase in the number of models on which inference is based in comparison to existing techniques.展开更多
It is difficult to measure the sizes of illegal drug user populations directly by using the survey method because of many “hidden drug addicts” and the difficulty of receiving a true response. Systematic and routine...It is difficult to measure the sizes of illegal drug user populations directly by using the survey method because of many “hidden drug addicts” and the difficulty of receiving a true response. Systematic and routine information on treatment episodes of drug users is adopted to estimate the population size in this study. Mixture models of zero-truncated Poisson distributions using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLE) by means of capture-recapture repeated count data were used to project the number of drug users. The method was applied to surveillance data of drug users identified by treatment episodes in over 1140 health treatment centers in Thailand from the Bureau of Health Service System Development, Ministry of Public Health. We presented how this mixture model could be utilized to construct the unobserved frequency of drug users with no treatment episode and further estimated the total population size of drug users in the country from 2005 to 2007. The result of simulation was confirmed that mixture model is suitable when population is large. By means of mixture models, the estimations for the number of drug users were fitted with excellent goodness-of-fit values and we were also compared to the conventional Chao estimates. The NPMLE for the total number of drug users in Thailand 2005, 2006, and 2007 were 184,045 (95% CI: 181,297-86,793), 230,665 (95% CI: 226,611-234,719), 299,670 (95% CI: 294,217-305,123), respectively, also 125,265 (95% CI: 123,092-127,142), 166,287 (95% CI: 163,222-169,352), 228,898 (95% CI: 224,766 - 233,030) for the number of methamphetamine (Yaba) users, and 11,559 (95% CI: 10,234-12,884), 11,333 (95% CI: 9276-13,390), 8953 (95% CI: 7878-10,028) for the number of heroin users, respectively. The numbers of marijuana, kratom-plant, opium, and inhalant users were underestimated because their symptoms were mild and not severe enough to remedy in health treatment centers which led to the smaller size of the total number of drug users. The well-estimated sizes of heroin展开更多
Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are highly vulnerable to HIV infection, but this population can be particularly difficult to reach in Thailand. This study aimed to estimate the number of MSM in Chiang Mai ...Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are highly vulnerable to HIV infection, but this population can be particularly difficult to reach in Thailand. This study aimed to estimate the number of MSM in Chiang Mai Thailand, in order to plan HIV control and prevention. Methods: The total of 348 potential MSM were identified at eight contact locations, including two public parks, two bars, two massage parlors and two pubs in Chiang Mai. Trained 16 research enumerators and 16 enumerators were trained to extend a recruitment of brooches to MSM. The MSMs were captured one week apart. A record was kept of when, where and by whom the invitation was extended and received, and of refusals. The total estimate of MSM was derived from capture-recapture calculation. Results: The total MSM in Chiang Mai Thailand estimated by capture and recapture method was 733 (95%CI = 480 - 948) or the estimate was 7.3% (95%CI = 7.1% - 14.1%). Conclusions: Capture and recapture method can be used to enumerate and provide accurate and reliable estimates of the MSM population in any area, provided that certain conditions are controlled. MSM who are engaged in personal community represent a sizeable population who urgently need to be targeted by HIV and STDs prevention strategies.展开更多
Survival and maturation rates of female Mastomys natalensis were analysed based on a ten-year monthlycapture-recapture data set. We investigated whether direct and delayed density dependent and independent (rainfall)v...Survival and maturation rates of female Mastomys natalensis were analysed based on a ten-year monthlycapture-recapture data set. We investigated whether direct and delayed density dependent and independent (rainfall)variables accounted for the considerable variation in demographic traits. It was estimated that seasonal and annualcovariates accounted for respectively 29 and 26% of the total variation in maturation rates and respectively 17 and11% of the variation in survival rates. Explaining the between-year differences in maturation rates with annual pastrainfall or density did not improve the model fit. On the other hand we showed that maturation rates were correlatednegatively with density the previous month and positively to cumulative rainfall over the past three months.Survival estimates of both adults and subadults varied seasonally, with higher estimates during the increase phase(dry season). The subadults were characterised by a very high survival rate (> 0.95) during this phase. In thedecrease phase only minor differences were found between survival rates of subadults and adults. We found that39% of the between-year variation in survival can be explained by accumulated rainfall over the past year.展开更多
We studied the influence of surveyed area size on density estimates by means of camera-trapping in a low-density felid population(1-2 individuals/100 km^(2)).We applied non-spatial capture-recapture(CR)and spatial CR(...We studied the influence of surveyed area size on density estimates by means of camera-trapping in a low-density felid population(1-2 individuals/100 km^(2)).We applied non-spatial capture-recapture(CR)and spatial CR(SCR)models for Eurasian lynx during winter 2005/2006 in the northwestern Swiss Alps by sampling an area divided into 5 nested plots ranging from 65 to 760 km^(2).CR model density estimates(95%CI)for models M_(0)and M_(h)decreased from 2.61(1.55-3.68)and 3.6(1.62-5.57)independent lynx/100 km^(2),respectively,in the smallest to 1.20(1.04-1.35)and 1.26(0.89-1.63)independent lynx/100 km^(2),respectively,in the largest area surveyed.SCR model density estimates also decreased with increasing sampling area but not significantly.High individual range overlaps in relatively small areas(the edge effect)is the most plausible reason for this positive bias in the CR models.Our results confirm that SCR models are much more robust to changes in trap array size than CR models,thus avoiding overestimation of density in smaller areas.However,when a study is concerned with monitoring population changes,large spatial efforts(area surveyed≥760 km^(2))are required to obtain reliable and precise density estimates with these population densities and recapture rates.展开更多
基金supported by grants from the Natural Science Foundation of China(31270567,31210103911,31421063,31200410 and 31470566)the National Scientific and Technical Foundation Project of China(2012FY112000).
文摘As an apex predator the Amur tiger(Panthera tigris altaica)could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia.Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century,tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China.To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range,reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions.Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture(SECR)methods.A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population.Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11400 km2 state space,density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km^(2) in 2013 and 2014,respectively,corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population.In a maximum likelihood framework,we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km^(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27,in 2013 and 2014,respectively.These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East.This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China,and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China.
基金supported by the mega-projects of national science research under the 11th Five-Year Plan of China(2008ZX10001-003)the 12th Five-Year Plan of China(2012ZX10001001)the Comprehensive International Program of Research on AIDS(CIPRA)grant from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases,and U.S.National Institutes of Health(U19AI51915-05)
文摘Objective This study is to estimate the population size and prevalence of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 （HSV-2） infections among female sex workers （FSWs） in Kaiyuan, Yunnan Province, China. Methods Eight cross-sectional studies were conducted among FSWs in Kaiyuan from 2006 to 2009. Based on the data from two study time points each year, the total numbers of FSWs and HIV positive FSWs were estimated by using the capture-recapture technique （CR）. Results Estimated sizes of FSWs in Kaiyuan were 1 629, 1 672, 1 186, and 1 014 in the respective years from 2006 to 2009. Although the crude prevalence rates of HIV and HSV-2 varied over time, the adjusted prevalence among this population was relatively stable at 10%-12% and the adjusted HSV-2 prevalence ranged from 67% to72%. Conclusion The reason for the slight decrease of the size of the FSW population is unknown. The adjusted prevalence rates of HIV and HSV-2 among them were stable over the course of this study.
基金supported by grant from the National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China(31670537,31200410)the National Scientific and Technical Foundation Project of China(2012FY112000)Cyrus Tang Foundation(2016),and the Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China(2019M653714).
文摘The North Chinese leopard(Panthera pardus japonensis),the least-known big cat,disappeared in most historical range for decades,following the development of modern civilization.Unfortunately,we have scarce knowledge about the status of this big cat so far,apart from anecdotal reports.In this study,we investigated density,distribution,and habitat use of the leopard,the apex predator,in a complex forest landscape in the Loess Plateau.We used a camera-trapping network to obtain population estimates for leopards over 2 years through spatially explicit capture-recapture models.Our results,based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian/MCMC methods,reveal that the largest wild population of the leopard was found widely distributed in remnant forests in central Loess plateau.The population is increasing in our study area,and the density of leopards(1.70(SE=0.48)−2.40(SE=0.67)/100 km^(2))is higher than other areas of China.According to the analysis of 2 seasonal occupancy models,prey species drive partially the leopard habitat use,predicting that the big cat thrives from the recovery of prey community.However,human disturbances,especially oil wells,seem to have negative impacts on the habitat use of leopards.Specifically,it is necessary to have joint efforts by the government and researchers to improve human disturbances management and prey species population density,as well as strengthen the investment in research on the North Chinese leopard,which could all further strengthen protection ability and ensure the long-term survival of this species.
文摘We consider the problem of population estimation using capture-recapture data, where capture probabilities can vary between sampling occasions and behavioural responses. The original model is not identifiable without further restrictions. The novelty of this article is to expand the current research practice by developing a hierarchical Bayesian approach with the assumption that the odds of recapture bears a constant relationship to the odds of initial capture. A real-data example of deer mice population is given to illustrate the proposed method. Three simulation studies are developed to inspect the performance of the proposed Bayesian estimates. Compared with the maximum likelihood estimates discussed in Chao et al. (2000), the hierarchical Bayesian estimate provides reasonably better population estimation with less mean square error;moreover, it is sturdy to underline relationship between the initial and re-capture probabilities. The sensitivity study shows that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to the choice of hyper-parameters. The third simulation study reveals that both relative bias and relative RMSE approach zero as population size increases. A R-package is developed and used in both data example and simulation.
基金Supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11171006
文摘The main purpose of this paper is using capture-recapture data to estimate the population size when some covariate values are missing, possibly non-ignorable. Conditional likelihood method is adopted, with a sub-model describing various missing mechanisms. The derived estimate is proved to be asymptotically normal, and simulation studies via a version of EM algorithm show that it is approximately unbiased. The proposed method is applied to a real example, and the result is compared with previous ones.
文摘Mark-recapture models are extensively used in quantitative population ecology, providing estimates of population vital rates, such as survival, that are difficult to obtain using other methods. Vital rates are commonly modeled as functions of explanatory covariates, adding considerable flexibility to mark-recapture models, but also increasing the subjectivity and complexity of the modeling process. Consequently, model selection and the evaluation of covariate structure remain critical aspects of mark-recapture modeling. The difficulties involved in model selection are compounded in Cormack-Jolly-Seber models because they are composed of separate sub-models for survival and recapture probabilities, which are conceptualized independently even though their parameters are not statistically independent. The construction of models as combinations of sub-models, together with multiple potential covariates, can lead to a large model set. Although desirable, estimation of the parameters of all models may not be feasible. Strategies to search a model space and base inference on a subset of all models exist and enjoy widespread use. However, even though the methods used to search a model space can be expected to influence parameter estimation, the assessment of covariate importance, and therefore the ecological interpretation of the modeling results, the performance of these strategies has received limited investigation. We present a new strategy for searching the space of a candidate set of Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and explore its performance relative to existing strategies using computer simulation. The new strategy provides an improved assessment of the importance of covariates and covariate combinations used to model survival and recapture probabilities, while requiring only a modest increase in the number of models on which inference is based in comparison to existing techniques.
文摘It is difficult to measure the sizes of illegal drug user populations directly by using the survey method because of many “hidden drug addicts” and the difficulty of receiving a true response. Systematic and routine information on treatment episodes of drug users is adopted to estimate the population size in this study. Mixture models of zero-truncated Poisson distributions using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLE) by means of capture-recapture repeated count data were used to project the number of drug users. The method was applied to surveillance data of drug users identified by treatment episodes in over 1140 health treatment centers in Thailand from the Bureau of Health Service System Development, Ministry of Public Health. We presented how this mixture model could be utilized to construct the unobserved frequency of drug users with no treatment episode and further estimated the total population size of drug users in the country from 2005 to 2007. The result of simulation was confirmed that mixture model is suitable when population is large. By means of mixture models, the estimations for the number of drug users were fitted with excellent goodness-of-fit values and we were also compared to the conventional Chao estimates. The NPMLE for the total number of drug users in Thailand 2005, 2006, and 2007 were 184,045 (95% CI: 181,297-86,793), 230,665 (95% CI: 226,611-234,719), 299,670 (95% CI: 294,217-305,123), respectively, also 125,265 (95% CI: 123,092-127,142), 166,287 (95% CI: 163,222-169,352), 228,898 (95% CI: 224,766 - 233,030) for the number of methamphetamine (Yaba) users, and 11,559 (95% CI: 10,234-12,884), 11,333 (95% CI: 9276-13,390), 8953 (95% CI: 7878-10,028) for the number of heroin users, respectively. The numbers of marijuana, kratom-plant, opium, and inhalant users were underestimated because their symptoms were mild and not severe enough to remedy in health treatment centers which led to the smaller size of the total number of drug users. The well-estimated sizes of heroin
文摘Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are highly vulnerable to HIV infection, but this population can be particularly difficult to reach in Thailand. This study aimed to estimate the number of MSM in Chiang Mai Thailand, in order to plan HIV control and prevention. Methods: The total of 348 potential MSM were identified at eight contact locations, including two public parks, two bars, two massage parlors and two pubs in Chiang Mai. Trained 16 research enumerators and 16 enumerators were trained to extend a recruitment of brooches to MSM. The MSMs were captured one week apart. A record was kept of when, where and by whom the invitation was extended and received, and of refusals. The total estimate of MSM was derived from capture-recapture calculation. Results: The total MSM in Chiang Mai Thailand estimated by capture and recapture method was 733 (95%CI = 480 - 948) or the estimate was 7.3% (95%CI = 7.1% - 14.1%). Conclusions: Capture and recapture method can be used to enumerate and provide accurate and reliable estimates of the MSM population in any area, provided that certain conditions are controlled. MSM who are engaged in personal community represent a sizeable population who urgently need to be targeted by HIV and STDs prevention strategies.
文摘Survival and maturation rates of female Mastomys natalensis were analysed based on a ten-year monthlycapture-recapture data set. We investigated whether direct and delayed density dependent and independent (rainfall)variables accounted for the considerable variation in demographic traits. It was estimated that seasonal and annualcovariates accounted for respectively 29 and 26% of the total variation in maturation rates and respectively 17 and11% of the variation in survival rates. Explaining the between-year differences in maturation rates with annual pastrainfall or density did not improve the model fit. On the other hand we showed that maturation rates were correlatednegatively with density the previous month and positively to cumulative rainfall over the past three months.Survival estimates of both adults and subadults varied seasonally, with higher estimates during the increase phase(dry season). The subadults were characterised by a very high survival rate (> 0.95) during this phase. In thedecrease phase only minor differences were found between survival rates of subadults and adults. We found that39% of the between-year variation in survival can be explained by accumulated rainfall over the past year.
基金supported by the Federal Office for the Environment.
文摘We studied the influence of surveyed area size on density estimates by means of camera-trapping in a low-density felid population(1-2 individuals/100 km^(2)).We applied non-spatial capture-recapture(CR)and spatial CR(SCR)models for Eurasian lynx during winter 2005/2006 in the northwestern Swiss Alps by sampling an area divided into 5 nested plots ranging from 65 to 760 km^(2).CR model density estimates(95%CI)for models M_(0)and M_(h)decreased from 2.61(1.55-3.68)and 3.6(1.62-5.57)independent lynx/100 km^(2),respectively,in the smallest to 1.20(1.04-1.35)and 1.26(0.89-1.63)independent lynx/100 km^(2),respectively,in the largest area surveyed.SCR model density estimates also decreased with increasing sampling area but not significantly.High individual range overlaps in relatively small areas(the edge effect)is the most plausible reason for this positive bias in the CR models.Our results confirm that SCR models are much more robust to changes in trap array size than CR models,thus avoiding overestimation of density in smaller areas.However,when a study is concerned with monitoring population changes,large spatial efforts(area surveyed≥760 km^(2))are required to obtain reliable and precise density estimates with these population densities and recapture rates.
