Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea(TRAMS),Typhoon Roke(1115) and Sonca(1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction,have been selected for ...Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea(TRAMS),Typhoon Roke(1115) and Sonca(1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction,have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast.The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model.Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca.The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons' track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca,compared with using the scheme for both typhoons.By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement.All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests.It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast.Besides,the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon.It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.展开更多
研究了2005-2011年西北太平洋六对双台风个例,根据其路径特征将其分为三类:双台风同时转向;双台风一前一后移动;东台风转向、西台风原地打转或停滞不前等异常路径.利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,V3.5.1)模式及其伴随...研究了2005-2011年西北太平洋六对双台风个例,根据其路径特征将其分为三类:双台风同时转向;双台风一前一后移动;东台风转向、西台风原地打转或停滞不前等异常路径.利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,V3.5.1)模式及其伴随模式分别计算了各个台风的基于伴随模式的引导气流敏感性(Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector,ADSSV),在此基础上分析了不同移动类型的双台风之间的相互影响和环境场对其影响的差异,研究结果表明:ADSSV在垂直方向上主要分布在850 hPa和500 hPa之间,不同台风引导气流敏感性极值的高度具有较明显的差异;不同双台风ADSSV的水平分布特征也有显著不同,有的双台风之间的相互影响非常明显,有的双台风则属于单向影响型,还有的双台风虽然满足双台风的定义,但它们相互之间并没有明显的相互作用.展开更多
基金Guangdong Science and Technology Planning Project(2012A061400012)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406009)+1 种基金Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(2013A04)that of Shenzhen(ZDSYS2014071515395703)
文摘Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea(TRAMS),Typhoon Roke(1115) and Sonca(1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction,have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast.The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model.Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca.The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons' track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca,compared with using the scheme for both typhoons.By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement.All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests.It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast.Besides,the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon.It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.
文摘研究了2005-2011年西北太平洋六对双台风个例,根据其路径特征将其分为三类:双台风同时转向;双台风一前一后移动;东台风转向、西台风原地打转或停滞不前等异常路径.利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,V3.5.1)模式及其伴随模式分别计算了各个台风的基于伴随模式的引导气流敏感性(Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector,ADSSV),在此基础上分析了不同移动类型的双台风之间的相互影响和环境场对其影响的差异,研究结果表明:ADSSV在垂直方向上主要分布在850 hPa和500 hPa之间,不同台风引导气流敏感性极值的高度具有较明显的差异;不同双台风ADSSV的水平分布特征也有显著不同,有的双台风之间的相互影响非常明显,有的双台风则属于单向影响型,还有的双台风虽然满足双台风的定义,但它们相互之间并没有明显的相互作用.
