In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used...In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence- theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis- based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics （posbist reliability） and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics （belief reliability）. It is pointed out that a qualified reli- ability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to （ 1 ） compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and （2） satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.展开更多
提出了一种基于确信可靠度的可靠性评价方法。确信可靠度是一种综合考虑了设计裕量、固有不确定性以及认知不确定性三方面因素对可靠性的影响的可靠性度量指标,适用于度量认知不确定性影响下产品的可靠性水平。首先,提出了基于产品故障...提出了一种基于确信可靠度的可靠性评价方法。确信可靠度是一种综合考虑了设计裕量、固有不确定性以及认知不确定性三方面因素对可靠性的影响的可靠性度量指标,适用于度量认知不确定性影响下产品的可靠性水平。首先,提出了基于产品故障模式及影响分析(failure mode and effects analysis,FMEA)工作应用效果的认知不确定因子确定方法;然后,给出了综合考虑设计裕量、固有不确定因子与认知不确定因子的确信可靠度评价方法;最后,以某电源电路为例,对所提出的方法进行了演示验证。结果显示,认知不确定性的存在会降低人们对产品可靠程度的预期。展开更多
Safety assessment is one of important aspects in health management.In safety assessment for practical systems,three problems exist:lack of observation information,high system complexity and environment interference.Be...Safety assessment is one of important aspects in health management.In safety assessment for practical systems,three problems exist:lack of observation information,high system complexity and environment interference.Belief rule base with attribute reliability(BRB-r)is an expert system that provides a useful way for dealing with these three problems.In BRB-r,once the input information is unreliable,the reliability of belief rule is influenced,which further influences the accuracy of its output belief degree.On the other hand,when many system characteristics exist,the belief rule combination will explode in BRB-r,and the BRB-r based safety assessment model becomes too complicated to be applied.Thus,in this paper,to balance the complexity and accuracy of the safety assessment model,a new safety assessment model based on BRB-r with considering belief rule reliability is developed for the first time.In the developed model,a new calculation method of the belief rule reliability is proposed with considering both attribute reliability and global ignorance.Moreover,to reduce the influence of uncertainty of expert knowledge,an optimization model for the developed safety assessment model is constructed.A case study of safety assessment of liquefied natural gas(LNG)storage tank is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the new developed model.展开更多
This paper systematically introduces and reviews a scientific exploration of reliability called the belief reliability.Beginning with the origin of reliability engineering,the problems of present theories for reliabil...This paper systematically introduces and reviews a scientific exploration of reliability called the belief reliability.Beginning with the origin of reliability engineering,the problems of present theories for reliability engineering are summarized as a query,a dilemma,and a puzzle.Then,through philosophical reflection,we introduce the theoretical solutions given by belief reliability theory,including scientific principles,basic equations,reliability science experiments,and mathematical measures.The basic methods and technologies of belief reliability,namely,belief reliability analysis,function-oriented belief reliability design,belief reliability evaluation,and several newly developed methods and technologies are sequentially elaborated and overviewed.Based on the above investigations,we summarize the significance of belief reliability theory and make some prospects about future research,aiming to promote the development of reliability science and engineering.展开更多
确信可靠性理论是近些年来提出的一种全新的可靠性理论。在确信可靠性理论中,性能裕量是开展可靠性度量与分析的核心概念。如何在产品设计过程中对关键性能参数进行辨识和对性能裕量进行分析,是首先要解决的重要问题。为此,提出一种新...确信可靠性理论是近些年来提出的一种全新的可靠性理论。在确信可靠性理论中,性能裕量是开展可靠性度量与分析的核心概念。如何在产品设计过程中对关键性能参数进行辨识和对性能裕量进行分析,是首先要解决的重要问题。为此,提出一种新型形式化分析方法——功能、性能与裕量分析(function,performance and margin analysis,FPMA),以有序地梳理产品功能、性能关系,辨识关键性能参数及性能阈值,从而为后续的裕量建模与可靠性分析奠定信息和认知基础。详细阐述了该方法的内涵与基本流程,明确了其在产品全寿命周期内的应用价值,并以某型电连接器为例开展了案例研究。结果表明,开展FPMA能够全面挖掘产品可靠性相关信息,有利于真正把可靠性融入产品的设计中。展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61573043)
文摘In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence- theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis- based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics （posbist reliability） and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics （belief reliability）. It is pointed out that a qualified reli- ability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to （ 1 ） compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and （2） satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.
文摘提出了一种基于确信可靠度的可靠性评价方法。确信可靠度是一种综合考虑了设计裕量、固有不确定性以及认知不确定性三方面因素对可靠性的影响的可靠性度量指标,适用于度量认知不确定性影响下产品的可靠性水平。首先,提出了基于产品故障模式及影响分析(failure mode and effects analysis,FMEA)工作应用效果的认知不确定因子确定方法;然后,给出了综合考虑设计裕量、固有不确定因子与认知不确定因子的确信可靠度评价方法;最后,以某电源电路为例,对所提出的方法进行了演示验证。结果显示,认知不确定性的存在会降低人们对产品可靠程度的预期。
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61833016,61751304,61873273,61702142,61773388)the Key Research and Development Plan of Hainan(ZDYF2019007)Shaanxi Outstanding Youth Science Foundation(2020JC-34)。
文摘Safety assessment is one of important aspects in health management.In safety assessment for practical systems,three problems exist:lack of observation information,high system complexity and environment interference.Belief rule base with attribute reliability(BRB-r)is an expert system that provides a useful way for dealing with these three problems.In BRB-r,once the input information is unreliable,the reliability of belief rule is influenced,which further influences the accuracy of its output belief degree.On the other hand,when many system characteristics exist,the belief rule combination will explode in BRB-r,and the BRB-r based safety assessment model becomes too complicated to be applied.Thus,in this paper,to balance the complexity and accuracy of the safety assessment model,a new safety assessment model based on BRB-r with considering belief rule reliability is developed for the first time.In the developed model,a new calculation method of the belief rule reliability is proposed with considering both attribute reliability and global ignorance.Moreover,to reduce the influence of uncertainty of expert knowledge,an optimization model for the developed safety assessment model is constructed.A case study of safety assessment of liquefied natural gas(LNG)storage tank is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the new developed model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62073009,52775020,72201013)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2022M710314)the Funding of Science&Technology on Reliability&Environmental Engineering Laboratory(6142004210102)。
文摘This paper systematically introduces and reviews a scientific exploration of reliability called the belief reliability.Beginning with the origin of reliability engineering,the problems of present theories for reliability engineering are summarized as a query,a dilemma,and a puzzle.Then,through philosophical reflection,we introduce the theoretical solutions given by belief reliability theory,including scientific principles,basic equations,reliability science experiments,and mathematical measures.The basic methods and technologies of belief reliability,namely,belief reliability analysis,function-oriented belief reliability design,belief reliability evaluation,and several newly developed methods and technologies are sequentially elaborated and overviewed.Based on the above investigations,we summarize the significance of belief reliability theory and make some prospects about future research,aiming to promote the development of reliability science and engineering.
文摘确信可靠性理论是近些年来提出的一种全新的可靠性理论。在确信可靠性理论中,性能裕量是开展可靠性度量与分析的核心概念。如何在产品设计过程中对关键性能参数进行辨识和对性能裕量进行分析,是首先要解决的重要问题。为此,提出一种新型形式化分析方法——功能、性能与裕量分析(function,performance and margin analysis,FPMA),以有序地梳理产品功能、性能关系,辨识关键性能参数及性能阈值,从而为后续的裕量建模与可靠性分析奠定信息和认知基础。详细阐述了该方法的内涵与基本流程,明确了其在产品全寿命周期内的应用价值,并以某型电连接器为例开展了案例研究。结果表明,开展FPMA能够全面挖掘产品可靠性相关信息,有利于真正把可靠性融入产品的设计中。
