全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR(Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution)由国家(北京)气候中心自主研发并参与了第六阶段国际耦合模式比较计划,该模式在BCC-CSM1.1m版本基础上对大气辐射传输、深对流过程...全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR(Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution)由国家(北京)气候中心自主研发并参与了第六阶段国际耦合模式比较计划,该模式在BCC-CSM1.1m版本基础上对大气辐射传输、深对流过程及重力波等方面进行了优化,因此,该模式对东亚地区降水和气温模拟能力的改进亟需进一步评估。本文主要基于不同格点观测数据集与中国区域站点观测数据,系统对比分析BCC-CSM2-MR、BCC-CSM1.1m两个模式版本对东亚地区季节平均降水(气温)和日极端降水(气温)的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)相比BCC-CSM1.1m,BCC-CSM2-MR改进了对东亚大部分区域季节平均降水的模拟能力,尤其是青藏高原地区夏季平均降水,明显提高了对中国东南地区、朝鲜半岛及日本降水月际变化的模拟性能;(2)BCC-CSM2-MR对东亚地区季节平均气温模拟能力改进不明显,且对东亚大部分区域气温月际变化的模拟误差大于BCC-CSM1.1m;(3)对日极端降水(气温),BCC-CSM2-MR的模拟能力优于BCC-CSM1.1m,明显提高了对中国东南地区日极端降水(气温)的模拟能力。总体而言,BCC-CSM2-MR在深对流过程参数方案中的改进有利于对东亚地区降水的模拟。展开更多
基于东安格里亚大学气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)资料及NCEP/DOE再分析数据集,评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中BCC-CSM2-MR气候模式对东亚冬季风(East Asian Wi...基于东安格里亚大学气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)资料及NCEP/DOE再分析数据集,评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中BCC-CSM2-MR气候模式对东亚冬季风(East Asian Winter Monsoom,EAWM)气候特征的模拟能力.结果表明:BCC-CSM2-MR模式能够合理再现西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、850 hPa偏北风、500 hPa东亚大槽及200 hPa东亚西风急流等EAWM环流系统的气候态分布.其中,BCC-CSM2-MR模式对500 hPa高度场的模拟效果最好.BCC-CSM2-MR模式能够捕捉EAWM的年际变化及年代际减弱趋势,但是模式中EAWM的减弱趋势小于观测结果.模式能够模拟出EAWM异常对应的西伯利亚高压异常及阿留申低压异常,但是由于高低压异常中心位置与观测资料的差异,导致模式中EAWM异常对应的东亚低层北风异常相对观测结果偏弱,2 m气温负异常也较观测结果偏弱.展开更多
Three deterministic prediction evaluation methods,including the standard deviation,root-mean-square error,and time correlation coefficient,and three extreme temperature indices were used to assess the performance of t...Three deterministic prediction evaluation methods,including the standard deviation,root-mean-square error,and time correlation coefficient,and three extreme temperature indices were used to assess the performance of the BCC_CSM2_MR model from CMIP6 in simulating the climate of Northwest China based on monthly grid air temperature data from ground stations.The model performance was evaluated using the daily mean temperature,daily minimum temperature,and daily maximum temperature from 1961 to 2014 and future temperature changes in Northwest China under different radiative forcing scenarios.The BCC_CSM2_MR model reproduces well the seasonal changes,spatial distribution,and other characteristics of the daily mean temperature in Northwest China,especially in the Tarim Basin,the Kunlun and Qilian mountains,and Shaanxi.There is still some deviation in the simulation of the daily mean temperature in the high terrains of the Tianshan,Kunlun,and Altai mountains.The model better simulates the daily minimum temperature than the daily maximum temperature.The simulation error is smallest in summer,followed by autumn and winter,and largest in spring.In terms of extreme temperature indices,the deviations are smaller for cold nights,warm nights,and the annual maximum daily minimum temperatures.Furthermore,the model can capture the increase in warm events and the decrease in cold events.Under different forcing scenarios,there is a general warming trend in Northwest China,with the greatest warming in Xinjiang.展开更多
文摘全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR(Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution)由国家(北京)气候中心自主研发并参与了第六阶段国际耦合模式比较计划,该模式在BCC-CSM1.1m版本基础上对大气辐射传输、深对流过程及重力波等方面进行了优化,因此,该模式对东亚地区降水和气温模拟能力的改进亟需进一步评估。本文主要基于不同格点观测数据集与中国区域站点观测数据,系统对比分析BCC-CSM2-MR、BCC-CSM1.1m两个模式版本对东亚地区季节平均降水(气温)和日极端降水(气温)的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)相比BCC-CSM1.1m,BCC-CSM2-MR改进了对东亚大部分区域季节平均降水的模拟能力,尤其是青藏高原地区夏季平均降水,明显提高了对中国东南地区、朝鲜半岛及日本降水月际变化的模拟性能;(2)BCC-CSM2-MR对东亚地区季节平均气温模拟能力改进不明显,且对东亚大部分区域气温月际变化的模拟误差大于BCC-CSM1.1m;(3)对日极端降水(气温),BCC-CSM2-MR的模拟能力优于BCC-CSM1.1m,明显提高了对中国东南地区日极端降水(气温)的模拟能力。总体而言,BCC-CSM2-MR在深对流过程参数方案中的改进有利于对东亚地区降水的模拟。
基金supported by the Numerical model development project of China Meteorological Administration(QHMS2018018,QHMS2019016)Research Fund Project of Chengdu University of Information Technology(KYTZ201721)
文摘Three deterministic prediction evaluation methods,including the standard deviation,root-mean-square error,and time correlation coefficient,and three extreme temperature indices were used to assess the performance of the BCC_CSM2_MR model from CMIP6 in simulating the climate of Northwest China based on monthly grid air temperature data from ground stations.The model performance was evaluated using the daily mean temperature,daily minimum temperature,and daily maximum temperature from 1961 to 2014 and future temperature changes in Northwest China under different radiative forcing scenarios.The BCC_CSM2_MR model reproduces well the seasonal changes,spatial distribution,and other characteristics of the daily mean temperature in Northwest China,especially in the Tarim Basin,the Kunlun and Qilian mountains,and Shaanxi.There is still some deviation in the simulation of the daily mean temperature in the high terrains of the Tianshan,Kunlun,and Altai mountains.The model better simulates the daily minimum temperature than the daily maximum temperature.The simulation error is smallest in summer,followed by autumn and winter,and largest in spring.In terms of extreme temperature indices,the deviations are smaller for cold nights,warm nights,and the annual maximum daily minimum temperatures.Furthermore,the model can capture the increase in warm events and the decrease in cold events.Under different forcing scenarios,there is a general warming trend in Northwest China,with the greatest warming in Xinjiang.
