International financial adjustment is the process whereby valuation shifts from asset price and currency changes result in relatively durable net wealth transfers across countries＇ international balance sheets. Thisp...International financial adjustment is the process whereby valuation shifts from asset price and currency changes result in relatively durable net wealth transfers across countries＇ international balance sheets. Thispaper applies a financial valuation approach to estimate the direction and the broad extent of recent international financial adjustments on China international balance sheet. We estimate China＇s international balance sheet losses resulting from the valuation shifts over the period 2005 2010 and reveal that international currency shifts over the past decade have also generated a range of non-balance sheet financial and monetary adjustment pressures for China. This paper also evaluates how China＇s evolving international financial policy arrangements could better mitigate China＇s exposure to international financial adjustments. These arrangements include a more effective currency mechanism and the mechanisms to internationalize the RMB to buffer international financial valuation shocks展开更多
本文参考Obstfeld and Rogoff(2005)三国模型,实证检验了经常账户调整对一国实际有效汇率走向的影响。研究表明:第一,经常账户顺差增加或逆差缩减驱动经济体实际有效汇率升值;第二,经常账户调整对一国实际有效汇率的影响具有国别间的非...本文参考Obstfeld and Rogoff(2005)三国模型,实证检验了经常账户调整对一国实际有效汇率走向的影响。研究表明:第一,经常账户顺差增加或逆差缩减驱动经济体实际有效汇率升值;第二,经常账户调整对一国实际有效汇率的影响具有国别间的非对称性与时变效应;第三,制造业规模的大小、估值效应同样影响经常账户对实际有效汇率的传导。本文最重要的政策建议是,各国需要密切关注经常账户调整对实际有效汇率变动构成的冲击,避免两者联动造成贸易条件的恶化。展开更多
Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a flo...Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime？ To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.展开更多
文摘International financial adjustment is the process whereby valuation shifts from asset price and currency changes result in relatively durable net wealth transfers across countries＇ international balance sheets. Thispaper applies a financial valuation approach to estimate the direction and the broad extent of recent international financial adjustments on China international balance sheet. We estimate China＇s international balance sheet losses resulting from the valuation shifts over the period 2005 2010 and reveal that international currency shifts over the past decade have also generated a range of non-balance sheet financial and monetary adjustment pressures for China. This paper also evaluates how China＇s evolving international financial policy arrangements could better mitigate China＇s exposure to international financial adjustments. These arrangements include a more effective currency mechanism and the mechanisms to internationalize the RMB to buffer international financial valuation shocks
文摘本文参考Obstfeld and Rogoff(2005)三国模型,实证检验了经常账户调整对一国实际有效汇率走向的影响。研究表明:第一,经常账户顺差增加或逆差缩减驱动经济体实际有效汇率升值;第二,经常账户调整对一国实际有效汇率的影响具有国别间的非对称性与时变效应;第三,制造业规模的大小、估值效应同样影响经常账户对实际有效汇率的传导。本文最重要的政策建议是,各国需要密切关注经常账户调整对实际有效汇率变动构成的冲击,避免两者联动造成贸易条件的恶化。
文摘Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime？ To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.
