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80a-Oscillation of Summer Rainfall over the East Part of China and East-Asian Summer Monsoon 被引量:6
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作者 朱锦红 王绍武 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2001年第5期1043-1051,共9页
Relationship between summer rainfall over the east part of China and East-Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was studied based on the summer rainfall grade data set from 1470 to 1999 and the rain gauge data set from 1951 to ... Relationship between summer rainfall over the east part of China and East-Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was studied based on the summer rainfall grade data set from 1470 to 1999 and the rain gauge data set from 1951 to 1999 over the east part of China, and sea level pressure (SLP) data for the period of 1871-2000. A distinct 80a-oscillation of summer rainfall was found over North China (NC), southern part of Northeast China, over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (YR) and South China (SC). The 80a oscillation of summer rainfall over NC was varied in phase with that over SC, and was out of phase to that along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Summer rainfall over NC correlated negatively with the SLP averaged for the area from 105 degreesE to 120 degreesE, and from 30 degreesN to 35 degreesN, but positively to that for the area from 120 degreesE to 130 degreesE, and from 20 degreesN to 25 degreesN. Therefore, an index of EASM was defined by the difference of averaged SLP over the two regions. The summer rainfall over NC was greater than normal when the EASM was strong, and while drought occurred along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The drought was found over NC, and flood along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River when the EASM was close to normal. Finally, the interdecadal variability of EASM was studied by using of long term summer rainfall grade data set over NC for the past 530 years. 展开更多
关键词 80a-oscillation summer rainfall over the east part of China Summer East-Asian Monsoon
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长江下游地区降水50—80d低频分量的次季节预测研究 被引量:4
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作者 杨秋明 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第4期491-509,共19页
用1979—2000年逐日长江下游降水的50—80d低频分量和全球850hPa低频纬向风主成分,构建了长江下游降水低频分量的次季节预测的扩展复数自回归模型(ECAR)。这种基于数据驱动建模的气候预测方法,不仅能在复数空间上反映全球环流主要低频... 用1979—2000年逐日长江下游降水的50—80d低频分量和全球850hPa低频纬向风主成分,构建了长江下游降水低频分量的次季节预测的扩展复数自回归模型(ECAR)。这种基于数据驱动建模的气候预测方法,不仅能在复数空间上反映全球环流主要低频主分量和长江下游降水低频分量之间的时滞变化信息,而且能更好地描述气候系统的主要分量在低维空间中的变化规律。对2001—2014年长江下游降水低频分量进行次季节逐日变化回报试验的结果表明,50—80d时间尺度的长江下游低频降水分量的预测时效可达52d左右,预报能力明显优于自回归模型(AR),而且6—8月的预报技巧最高。基于全球环流主要50—80d振荡型的发展和变化以及与长江下游低频降水相关的时间演变,对于提前50—60d预报长江下游地区持续多(少)雨过程很有帮助(尤其是夏季),其中,东亚经向三极子型(EAT)是影响长江下游地区季节内降水变化的最主要的环流因子之一。 展开更多
关键词 50—80d振荡 东亚经向三极子型 长江下游低频降水 ECAR预报模型 次季节预测
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