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地面和探空资料的EnKF同化对北京7·21极端暴雨模拟的影响 被引量:11
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作者 孟智勇 唐晓静 +2 位作者 岳健 白兰强 黄龄 《北京大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第2期237-245,共9页
针对2012年7月21日北京极端暴雨的业务预报误差,详细地考察地面和探空资料的EnKF同化对7·21极端暴雨总体时空分布和暴雨触发地面特征模拟的影响,进而揭示预报误差的可能原因。结果表明,资料同化显著地改善了北京地区降水时空分布... 针对2012年7月21日北京极端暴雨的业务预报误差,详细地考察地面和探空资料的EnKF同化对7·21极端暴雨总体时空分布和暴雨触发地面特征模拟的影响,进而揭示预报误差的可能原因。结果表明,资料同化显著地改善了北京地区降水时空分布的模拟结果,证实了前人基于观测和敏感性分析提出的"低涡是北京7·21暴雨的关键影响系统"的判断,揭示出低涡对应的地面低压东侧倒槽对北京7·21暴雨的直接贡献。研究结果显示,业务数值模式对此次极端暴雨预报失败的主要原因可能是对低涡和低涡对应的地面低压东侧倒槽强度和位置有较大的预报误差。 展开更多
关键词 7·21暴雨 低涡 倒槽 极端暴雨 北京
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Super-Parameterization in GRAPES: The Construction of SP-GRAPES and Associated Preliminary Results
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作者 朱丰 徐国强 +1 位作者 郑晓辉 王宇虹 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第2期272-292,共21页
Super-parameterization(SP) aims to explicitly represent deep convection within a coarse resolution global model by embedding a cloud resolving model(CRM) in each column of the mother model. For the first time, we ... Super-parameterization(SP) aims to explicitly represent deep convection within a coarse resolution global model by embedding a cloud resolving model(CRM) in each column of the mother model. For the first time, we implemented the SP in a mesoscale regional weather model, the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System(GRAPES). The constructed SP-GRAPES uses a two-dimensional(2D) CRM in each grid column. A control and two SP simulations are conducted for the Beijing "7.21" heavy rainfall event to evaluate improvements in GRAPES using SP. The SP-run-I is a basic SP run delivering microphysics feedback only, whereas the SP-run-II delivers both microphysical and cloud fraction feedbacks. A comparison of the runs indicates that the SP-run-I has a slightly positive impact on the precipitation forecast than the control run. However, the inclusion of cloud fraction feedback leads to an evident overall improvement, particularly in terms of cloud fraction and 24-h cumulative precipitation. Although this is only a preliminary study using SP-GRAPES, we believe that it will provide considerable guidance for follow-up studies using SP in China. 展开更多
关键词 super-parameterization GRAPES Beijing "7.21" heavy rainfall event cloud fraction precipitation forecast verification
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