In 2021,China updated its nationally determined contributions(NDCs)under the Paris Agreement,which prompts a more accurate mea-surement of its emissions inventory and a reasonable pathway toward carbon neutrality by 2...In 2021,China updated its nationally determined contributions(NDCs)under the Paris Agreement,which prompts a more accurate mea-surement of its emissions inventory and a reasonable pathway toward carbon neutrality by 2060.This study reviews the estimates using the bottom-up emissions factor method or the top-down atmospheric CO_(2) concentration inversion method to derive China's CO_(2) emissions inventory and finds that CO_(2) emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes in Chinese mainland range from 11.3-12.0 GtCO_(2) in 2021.Based on a comprehensive review of pathways proposed by domestic and international studies and an analysis of the origins of their differences,we proposed the Tsinghua-CMA pathway that coordinates the 2℃global temperature rise control target with China's current CO_(2) emissions status and mitigation policies.The pathway requires China's CO_(2) emissions to peak around 2028-2029 at about 12.8 GtCO_(2),then decline steadily to about 11.2 GtCO_(2) in 2035,3.6 GtCO_(2) in 2050,and 0.9 GtCO_(2) in 2060.Compared to a reference scenario without updated NDCs,this pathway would result in an economic cost of about 0.9%cumulative GDP between 2020 and 2060,only 1/4-1/3 of the cost associated with pathways that align with the 1.5℃target.We recommended that China improves emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom-up and top-down approaches and regularly updating the pathway toward carbon neutrality while maintaining consistency with its evolving CO_(2) emissions inventory,policy trends,and global CO_(2) emission budget updates.展开更多
The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emiss...The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emission pathway that is consistent with this target; however, we need to understand the roadmap to do so. In this paper, the results of a modeling study by the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China(IPAC)concerning the investment required to realize the 2℃ scenario by examining the penetration of low-carbon technologies including energy supply and energy efficiency improvement in end-use sectors is presented. It is found that the investment required in the energy supply sector to realize the 2C scenario could reach CN$1.2 trillion by 2020, CN$1.0 trillion by 2030, and CN$1.4 trillion by 2050. The investment needed for energy saving could reach CN$1.6 trillion by 2020, CN$1.8 trillion by 2030, and CN$1.5 trillion by 2050, which represents the additional investment as compared with the use of old technologies. If the investment required both in the energy supply sector and in energy saving in enduse sectors is considered, the total investment is estimated to be CN$2.8 trillion by 2020, CN$2.8 trillion by 2030, and CN$2.9 trillion by 2050.These investments account for 2.5% of China's total GDP in 2020, 1.3% in 2030, and 0.6% by 2050, which represents quite a small investment percentage to realize the goal of low-carbon development.展开更多
基金supported by the Special Project (42341202 and 72140005)of the National Natural Science Foundation of China,Pathways to Achieve Carbon Neutrality。
文摘In 2021,China updated its nationally determined contributions(NDCs)under the Paris Agreement,which prompts a more accurate mea-surement of its emissions inventory and a reasonable pathway toward carbon neutrality by 2060.This study reviews the estimates using the bottom-up emissions factor method or the top-down atmospheric CO_(2) concentration inversion method to derive China's CO_(2) emissions inventory and finds that CO_(2) emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes in Chinese mainland range from 11.3-12.0 GtCO_(2) in 2021.Based on a comprehensive review of pathways proposed by domestic and international studies and an analysis of the origins of their differences,we proposed the Tsinghua-CMA pathway that coordinates the 2℃global temperature rise control target with China's current CO_(2) emissions status and mitigation policies.The pathway requires China's CO_(2) emissions to peak around 2028-2029 at about 12.8 GtCO_(2),then decline steadily to about 11.2 GtCO_(2) in 2035,3.6 GtCO_(2) in 2050,and 0.9 GtCO_(2) in 2060.Compared to a reference scenario without updated NDCs,this pathway would result in an economic cost of about 0.9%cumulative GDP between 2020 and 2060,only 1/4-1/3 of the cost associated with pathways that align with the 1.5℃target.We recommended that China improves emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom-up and top-down approaches and regularly updating the pathway toward carbon neutrality while maintaining consistency with its evolving CO_(2) emissions inventory,policy trends,and global CO_(2) emission budget updates.
基金supported by National Science and Technology Program (2012CB955801)Basic Research and National Objectives& National Basic Research Program of China (2014CB441300)National Social Science Foundation (15ZDA055)
文摘The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emission pathway that is consistent with this target; however, we need to understand the roadmap to do so. In this paper, the results of a modeling study by the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China(IPAC)concerning the investment required to realize the 2℃ scenario by examining the penetration of low-carbon technologies including energy supply and energy efficiency improvement in end-use sectors is presented. It is found that the investment required in the energy supply sector to realize the 2C scenario could reach CN$1.2 trillion by 2020, CN$1.0 trillion by 2030, and CN$1.4 trillion by 2050. The investment needed for energy saving could reach CN$1.6 trillion by 2020, CN$1.8 trillion by 2030, and CN$1.5 trillion by 2050, which represents the additional investment as compared with the use of old technologies. If the investment required both in the energy supply sector and in energy saving in enduse sectors is considered, the total investment is estimated to be CN$2.8 trillion by 2020, CN$2.8 trillion by 2030, and CN$2.9 trillion by 2050.These investments account for 2.5% of China's total GDP in 2020, 1.3% in 2030, and 0.6% by 2050, which represents quite a small investment percentage to realize the goal of low-carbon development.
