The primary pattern of the late Cenozoic to the present tectonic deformation of China is characterized by relative movements and interactions of tectonic blocks. Active tectonic blocks are geological units that have b...The primary pattern of the late Cenozoic to the present tectonic deformation of China is characterized by relative movements and interactions of tectonic blocks. Active tectonic blocks are geological units that have been separated from each other by active tectonic zones. Boundaries between blocks are the highest gradient of differential movement. Most of tectonic activity occurs on boundaries of the blocks. Earthquakes are results of abrupt releases of accumulated strain energy that reaches the threshold of strength of the earth's crust. Boundaries of tectonic blocks are the locations of most discontinuous deformation and highest gradient of stress accumulation, thus are the most likely places for strain energy accumulation and releases, and in turn, devastating earthquakes. Almost all earthquakes of magnitude greater than 8 and 80%-90% of earthquakes of magnitude over 7 occur along boundaries of active tectonic blocks. This fact indicates that differential movements and interactions of active tectonic blocks are the primary mechanism for the occurrences of devastating earthquakes.展开更多
The National Strong Motion Observation Network System （NSMONS） of China is briefly introduced in this paper. The NSMONS consists of permanent free-field stations, special observation arrays, mobile observatories and...The National Strong Motion Observation Network System （NSMONS） of China is briefly introduced in this paper. The NSMONS consists of permanent free-field stations, special observation arrays, mobile observatories and a network management system. During the Wenchuan Earthquake, over 1,400 components of acceleration records were obtained from 460 permanent free-field stations and three arrays for topographical effect and structural response observation in the network system from the main shock, and over 20,000 components of acceleration records from strong aftershocks occurred before August 1, 2008 were also obtained by permanent free-field stations of the NSMONS and 59 mobile instruments quickly deployed after the main shock. The strong motion recordings from the main shock and strong aftershocks are summarized in this paper. In the ground motion recordings, there are over 560 components with peak ground acceleration （PGA） over 10 Gal, the largest being 957.7 Gal. The largest PGA recorded during the aftershock exceeds 300 Gal.展开更多
In this paper, we establish some Rosenthal type inequalities for maximum partial sums of asymptotically almost negatively associated random variables, which extend the corresponding results for negatively associated r...In this paper, we establish some Rosenthal type inequalities for maximum partial sums of asymptotically almost negatively associated random variables, which extend the corresponding results for negatively associated random variables. As applications of these inequalities, by employing the notions of residual Cesàro α-integrability and strong residual Cesàro α-integrability, we derive some results on Lp convergence where 1 < p < 2 and complete convergence. In addition, we estimate the rate of convergence in Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund strong law for partial sums of identically distributed random variables.展开更多
In this paper, a notion of negative side ρ \|mixing ( ρ\+- \|mixing) which can be regarded as asymptotic negative association is defined, and some Rosenthal type inequalities for ρ\+- \|mixing random fields are est...In this paper, a notion of negative side ρ \|mixing ( ρ\+- \|mixing) which can be regarded as asymptotic negative association is defined, and some Rosenthal type inequalities for ρ\+- \|mixing random fields are established. The complete convergence and almost sure summability on the convergence rates with respect to the strong law of large numbers are also discussed for ρ\+-\| mixing random fields. The results obtained extend those for negatively associated sequences and ρ\+*\| mixing random fields.展开更多
In recent years, super high-rise buildings (>500 m) are developing very quickly and become an important frontier of civil engineering. The collapse resistance of super high-rise buildings subjected to extremely str...In recent years, super high-rise buildings (>500 m) are developing very quickly and become an important frontier of civil engineering. The collapse resistance of super high-rise buildings subjected to extremely strong earthquake is a critical problem that must be intensively studied. This paper builds up a nonlinear finite element model of the tallest building in China, Shang- hai Tower (632 m), and proposes the modeling method and failure criteria for different structural elements. The dynamic char- acters of this building are then analyzed, and the possible failure modes and collapse processes due to earthquakes are pre- dicted, as well as the corresponding collapse mechanism. This work will be helpful in collapse prevention and the seismic design of super high-rise buildings.展开更多
Classical Kolmogorov's and Rosenthal's inequalities for the maximum partial sums of random variables are basic tools for studying the strong laws of large numbers.In this paper,motived by the notion of indepen...Classical Kolmogorov's and Rosenthal's inequalities for the maximum partial sums of random variables are basic tools for studying the strong laws of large numbers.In this paper,motived by the notion of independent and identically distributed random variables under the sub-linear expectation initiated by Peng(2008),we introduce the concept of negative dependence of random variables and establish Kolmogorov's and Rosenthal's inequalities for the maximum partial sums of negatively dependent random variables under the sub-linear expectations.As an application,we show that Kolmogorov's strong law of larger numbers holds for independent and identically distributed random variables under a continuous sub-linear expectation if and only if the corresponding Choquet integral is finite.展开更多
Guliya ice core records, high lake-level records in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and at its north side as well as vegetation succession records indicated that during the period of 30-40 kaBP, namely the later age of the...Guliya ice core records, high lake-level records in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and at its north side as well as vegetation succession records indicated that during the period of 30-40 kaBP, namely the later age of the megainterstadial of last glacial period, or the marine oxygen isotope stage 3, the climate of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was exceptionally warm and humid, the temperature was 2-4℃ higher than today and the precipitation was 40% to over 100%展开更多
Two types of changes in apparent resistivity (AR) have been linked to earthquake occurrences. This paper studies the changes and their causes, in detail with the ultimate purpose of developing and assessing a method o...Two types of changes in apparent resistivity (AR) have been linked to earthquake occurrences. This paper studies the changes and their causes, in detail with the ultimate purpose of developing and assessing a method of earthquake (EQ) prediction. The AR changes of the first type (CFT) are considered to be precursors related to earthquakes (EQs); these appear mostly in the medium-term period before EQs and in the short-term period preceding EQs. The changes of the second type (CST) are characterized by a turning anomaly of a long-trend AR variation or the drastically descending/ascending anomaly superimposed on such a variation; these appear synchronously in large areas, such as the Chinese mainland, and northern and northwestern China, ect. Their spatio-temporal clusters correspond well to high seismicities in the areas and distant great EQs around the Chinese mainland. Based on the behaviors of the two types of changes, the AR changes observed prior to the Ms8.0 Wenchuan EQ of 2008 are studied. The results show that in the medium-term period before the EQ, noticeable anomalies appeared synchronously at four stations around the Songpan-Ganzi active block, but only weak upward changes were observed in the short-term period preceding the EQ, which caused the prediction of the imminent EQ to fail.展开更多
The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morpholog...The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morphological factors affecting the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground mo-tion caused by the earthquake, incorporating three-dimensional (3D) earth structure, finite-fault rupture, and realistic surface topography. The simulated ground motions reveal that the fault rupture and basin structure control the overall pattern of the peak ground shaking. Large peak ground velocity (PGV) is distributed in two narrow areas: one with the largest PGV values is above the hanging wall of the fault and attributed to the locations of fault asperities and rupture directivity; the other is along the north-western margin of the Sichuan Basin and caused by both the directivity of fault rupture and the ampli-fication in the thick sediment basin. Rough topography above the rupture fault causes wave scattering, resulting in significantly larger peak ground motion on the apex of topographic relief than in the valley. Topography and scattering also reduce the wave energy in the forward direction of fault rupture but increase the PGV in other parts of the basin. These results suggest the need for a localized hazard as-sessment in places of rough topography that takes the topographic effects into account. Finally, had the earthquake started at the northeast end of the fault zone and ruptured to the southwest, Chengdu would have suffered a much stronger shaking than it experienced on 12 May, 2008.展开更多
In this paper,we study the strong law of large numbers and Shannon-McMillan (S-M) theorem for Markov chains indexed by an infinite tree with uniformly bounded degree.The results generalize the analogous results on a h...In this paper,we study the strong law of large numbers and Shannon-McMillan (S-M) theorem for Markov chains indexed by an infinite tree with uniformly bounded degree.The results generalize the analogous results on a homogeneous tree.展开更多
The Anninghe fault is an important active fault along the eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block, and the study of its surface deformation and rupture behavior during strong earthquake in the late Qu...The Anninghe fault is an important active fault along the eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block, and the study of its surface deformation and rupture behavior during strong earthquake in the late Quaternary is of fundamental importance for understanding the future seismic risk of the fault zone or even the entire western Sichuan region. Using the methods of detailed geomorphic and geological survey, digital image analysis, total station instrument survey, excavation of combined trench and dating, we analyze the geomorphologic sequences of the offset strata at several sites where the late Quaternary deformation remnants are fairly well preserved and obtain some new results as follows: Strong earthquake events with left-lateral displacements of about 3 m occurred at the two sites of Zimakua and Yejitong at 1634-1811, 1030-1050 and 280-550 a BP, respectively, and the recurrence interval is 520-660 a; The youngest event in the area of Dahaizi-Ganhaizi should be the earthquake of 1536, other events are at 1768-1826, 2755-4108 and 4108-6593 a BP, respectively, with a recurrence interval of 1300-1900 a. The strong earthquake activity shows a clustering character. The possibility of occurrence of a strong earthquake exists on the north segment of the Anninghe fault sometime in the future.展开更多
The fading factor exerts a significant role in the strong tracking idea. However, traditional fading factor introduction method hinders the accuracy and robustness advantages of current strong-tracking-based nonlinear...The fading factor exerts a significant role in the strong tracking idea. However, traditional fading factor introduction method hinders the accuracy and robustness advantages of current strong-tracking-based nonlinear filtering algorithms such as Cubature Kalman Filter(CKF) since traditional fading factor introduction method only considers the first-order Taylor expansion. To this end, a new fading factor idea is suggested and introduced into the strong tracking CKF method.The new fading factor introduction method expanded the number of fading factors from one to two with reselected introduction positions. The relationship between the two fading factors as well as the general calculation method can be derived based on Taylor expansion. Obvious superiority of the newly suggested fading factor introduction method is demonstrated according to different nonlinearity of the measurement function. Equivalent calculation method can also be established while applied to CKF. Theoretical analysis shows that the strong tracking CKF can extract the thirdorder term information from the residual and thus realize second-order accuracy. After optimizing the strong tracking algorithm process, a Fast Strong Tracking CKF(FSTCKF) is finally established. Two simulation examples show that the novel FSTCKF improves the robustness of traditional CKF while minimizing the algorithm time complexity under various conditions.展开更多
We investigate three kinds of strong laws of large numbers for capacities with a new notion of independently and identically distributed(IID) random variables for sub-linear expectations initiated by Peng.It turns out...We investigate three kinds of strong laws of large numbers for capacities with a new notion of independently and identically distributed(IID) random variables for sub-linear expectations initiated by Peng.It turns out that these theorems are natural and fairly neat extensions of the classical Kolmogorov's strong law of large numbers to the case where probability measures are no longer additive. An important feature of these strong laws of large numbers is to provide a frequentist perspective on capacities.展开更多
Under the assumption that in the generalized linear model (GLM) the expectation of the response variable has a correct specification and some other smooth conditions, it is shown that with probability one the quasi-li...Under the assumption that in the generalized linear model (GLM) the expectation of the response variable has a correct specification and some other smooth conditions, it is shown that with probability one the quasi-likelihood equation for the GLM has a solution when the sample size n is sufficiently large. The rate of this solution tending to the true value is determined. In an important special case, this rate is the same as specified in the LIL for iid partial sums and thus cannot be improved anymore.展开更多
Square-root cubature Kalman filter (SCKF) is more effective for nonlinear state estimation than an unscented Kalman filter.In this paper,we study the design of nonlinear filters based on SCKF for the system with one s...Square-root cubature Kalman filter (SCKF) is more effective for nonlinear state estimation than an unscented Kalman filter.In this paper,we study the design of nonlinear filters based on SCKF for the system with one step noise correlation and abrupt state change.First,we give the SCKF that deals with the one step correlation between process and measurement noises,SCKF-CN in short.Second,we introduce the idea of a strong tracking filter to construct the adaptive square-root factor of the prediction error covariance with a fading factor,which makes SCKF-CN obtain outstanding tracking performance to the system with target maneuver or abrupt state change.Accordingly,the tracking performance of SCKF is greatly improved.A universal nonlinear estimator is proposed,which can not only deal with the conventional nonlinear filter problem with high dimensionality and correlated noises,but also achieve an excellent strong tracking performance towards the abrupt change of target state.Three simulation examples with a bearings-only tracking system are illustrated to verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.展开更多
文摘The primary pattern of the late Cenozoic to the present tectonic deformation of China is characterized by relative movements and interactions of tectonic blocks. Active tectonic blocks are geological units that have been separated from each other by active tectonic zones. Boundaries between blocks are the highest gradient of differential movement. Most of tectonic activity occurs on boundaries of the blocks. Earthquakes are results of abrupt releases of accumulated strain energy that reaches the threshold of strength of the earth's crust. Boundaries of tectonic blocks are the locations of most discontinuous deformation and highest gradient of stress accumulation, thus are the most likely places for strain energy accumulation and releases, and in turn, devastating earthquakes. Almost all earthquakes of magnitude greater than 8 and 80%-90% of earthquakes of magnitude over 7 occur along boundaries of active tectonic blocks. This fact indicates that differential movements and interactions of active tectonic blocks are the primary mechanism for the occurrences of devastating earthquakes.
基金NSFC Under Grant No. 90715038MOST of China Under Grant No. 2006BAC13B02
文摘The National Strong Motion Observation Network System （NSMONS） of China is briefly introduced in this paper. The NSMONS consists of permanent free-field stations, special observation arrays, mobile observatories and a network management system. During the Wenchuan Earthquake, over 1,400 components of acceleration records were obtained from 460 permanent free-field stations and three arrays for topographical effect and structural response observation in the network system from the main shock, and over 20,000 components of acceleration records from strong aftershocks occurred before August 1, 2008 were also obtained by permanent free-field stations of the NSMONS and 59 mobile instruments quickly deployed after the main shock. The strong motion recordings from the main shock and strong aftershocks are summarized in this paper. In the ground motion recordings, there are over 560 components with peak ground acceleration （PGA） over 10 Gal, the largest being 957.7 Gal. The largest PGA recorded during the aftershock exceeds 300 Gal.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.10871217) the SCR of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission (Grant No.KJ090703)
文摘In this paper, we establish some Rosenthal type inequalities for maximum partial sums of asymptotically almost negatively associated random variables, which extend the corresponding results for negatively associated random variables. As applications of these inequalities, by employing the notions of residual Cesàro α-integrability and strong residual Cesàro α-integrability, we derive some results on Lp convergence where 1 < p < 2 and complete convergence. In addition, we estimate the rate of convergence in Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund strong law for partial sums of identically distributed random variables.
文摘In this paper, a notion of negative side ρ \|mixing ( ρ\+- \|mixing) which can be regarded as asymptotic negative association is defined, and some Rosenthal type inequalities for ρ\+- \|mixing random fields are established. The complete convergence and almost sure summability on the convergence rates with respect to the strong law of large numbers are also discussed for ρ\+-\| mixing random fields. The results obtained extend those for negatively associated sequences and ρ\+*\| mixing random fields.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 90815025)the Tsinghua University Research Funds (Grant No. 2010THZ02-1)the "Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University"
文摘In recent years, super high-rise buildings (>500 m) are developing very quickly and become an important frontier of civil engineering. The collapse resistance of super high-rise buildings subjected to extremely strong earthquake is a critical problem that must be intensively studied. This paper builds up a nonlinear finite element model of the tallest building in China, Shang- hai Tower (632 m), and proposes the modeling method and failure criteria for different structural elements. The dynamic char- acters of this building are then analyzed, and the possible failure modes and collapse processes due to earthquakes are pre- dicted, as well as the corresponding collapse mechanism. This work will be helpful in collapse prevention and the seismic design of super high-rise buildings.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11225104)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘Classical Kolmogorov's and Rosenthal's inequalities for the maximum partial sums of random variables are basic tools for studying the strong laws of large numbers.In this paper,motived by the notion of independent and identically distributed random variables under the sub-linear expectation initiated by Peng(2008),we introduce the concept of negative dependence of random variables and establish Kolmogorov's and Rosenthal's inequalities for the maximum partial sums of negatively dependent random variables under the sub-linear expectations.As an application,we show that Kolmogorov's strong law of larger numbers holds for independent and identically distributed random variables under a continuous sub-linear expectation if and only if the corresponding Choquet integral is finite.
文摘Guliya ice core records, high lake-level records in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and at its north side as well as vegetation succession records indicated that during the period of 30-40 kaBP, namely the later age of the megainterstadial of last glacial period, or the marine oxygen isotope stage 3, the climate of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was exceptionally warm and humid, the temperature was 2-4℃ higher than today and the precipitation was 40% to over 100%
基金supported by National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2008BAC35B01-8 and 2006BAC01B02-04-03)
文摘Two types of changes in apparent resistivity (AR) have been linked to earthquake occurrences. This paper studies the changes and their causes, in detail with the ultimate purpose of developing and assessing a method of earthquake (EQ) prediction. The AR changes of the first type (CFT) are considered to be precursors related to earthquakes (EQs); these appear mostly in the medium-term period before EQs and in the short-term period preceding EQs. The changes of the second type (CST) are characterized by a turning anomaly of a long-trend AR variation or the drastically descending/ascending anomaly superimposed on such a variation; these appear synchronously in large areas, such as the Chinese mainland, and northern and northwestern China, ect. Their spatio-temporal clusters correspond well to high seismicities in the areas and distant great EQs around the Chinese mainland. Based on the behaviors of the two types of changes, the AR changes observed prior to the Ms8.0 Wenchuan EQ of 2008 are studied. The results show that in the medium-term period before the EQ, noticeable anomalies appeared synchronously at four stations around the Songpan-Ganzi active block, but only weak upward changes were observed in the short-term period preceding the EQ, which caused the prediction of the imminent EQ to fail.
基金the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. EAR 0738779 and OCE 0727919)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB418404)partially by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40521002)
文摘The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morphological factors affecting the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground mo-tion caused by the earthquake, incorporating three-dimensional (3D) earth structure, finite-fault rupture, and realistic surface topography. The simulated ground motions reveal that the fault rupture and basin structure control the overall pattern of the peak ground shaking. Large peak ground velocity (PGV) is distributed in two narrow areas: one with the largest PGV values is above the hanging wall of the fault and attributed to the locations of fault asperities and rupture directivity; the other is along the north-western margin of the Sichuan Basin and caused by both the directivity of fault rupture and the ampli-fication in the thick sediment basin. Rough topography above the rupture fault causes wave scattering, resulting in significantly larger peak ground motion on the apex of topographic relief than in the valley. Topography and scattering also reduce the wave energy in the forward direction of fault rupture but increase the PGV in other parts of the basin. These results suggest the need for a localized hazard as-sessment in places of rough topography that takes the topographic effects into account. Finally, had the earthquake started at the northeast end of the fault zone and ruptured to the southwest, Chengdu would have suffered a much stronger shaking than it experienced on 12 May, 2008.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.10571076)
文摘In this paper,we study the strong law of large numbers and Shannon-McMillan (S-M) theorem for Markov chains indexed by an infinite tree with uniformly bounded degree.The results generalize the analogous results on a homogeneous tree.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB418401)
文摘The Anninghe fault is an important active fault along the eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block, and the study of its surface deformation and rupture behavior during strong earthquake in the late Quaternary is of fundamental importance for understanding the future seismic risk of the fault zone or even the entire western Sichuan region. Using the methods of detailed geomorphic and geological survey, digital image analysis, total station instrument survey, excavation of combined trench and dating, we analyze the geomorphologic sequences of the offset strata at several sites where the late Quaternary deformation remnants are fairly well preserved and obtain some new results as follows: Strong earthquake events with left-lateral displacements of about 3 m occurred at the two sites of Zimakua and Yejitong at 1634-1811, 1030-1050 and 280-550 a BP, respectively, and the recurrence interval is 520-660 a; The youngest event in the area of Dahaizi-Ganhaizi should be the earthquake of 1536, other events are at 1768-1826, 2755-4108 and 4108-6593 a BP, respectively, with a recurrence interval of 1300-1900 a. The strong earthquake activity shows a clustering character. The possibility of occurrence of a strong earthquake exists on the north segment of the Anninghe fault sometime in the future.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61573283)
文摘The fading factor exerts a significant role in the strong tracking idea. However, traditional fading factor introduction method hinders the accuracy and robustness advantages of current strong-tracking-based nonlinear filtering algorithms such as Cubature Kalman Filter(CKF) since traditional fading factor introduction method only considers the first-order Taylor expansion. To this end, a new fading factor idea is suggested and introduced into the strong tracking CKF method.The new fading factor introduction method expanded the number of fading factors from one to two with reselected introduction positions. The relationship between the two fading factors as well as the general calculation method can be derived based on Taylor expansion. Obvious superiority of the newly suggested fading factor introduction method is demonstrated according to different nonlinearity of the measurement function. Equivalent calculation method can also be established while applied to CKF. Theoretical analysis shows that the strong tracking CKF can extract the thirdorder term information from the residual and thus realize second-order accuracy. After optimizing the strong tracking algorithm process, a Fast Strong Tracking CKF(FSTCKF) is finally established. Two simulation examples show that the novel FSTCKF improves the robustness of traditional CKF while minimizing the algorithm time complexity under various conditions.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11231005)
文摘We investigate three kinds of strong laws of large numbers for capacities with a new notion of independently and identically distributed(IID) random variables for sub-linear expectations initiated by Peng.It turns out that these theorems are natural and fairly neat extensions of the classical Kolmogorov's strong law of large numbers to the case where probability measures are no longer additive. An important feature of these strong laws of large numbers is to provide a frequentist perspective on capacities.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘Under the assumption that in the generalized linear model (GLM) the expectation of the response variable has a correct specification and some other smooth conditions, it is shown that with probability one the quasi-likelihood equation for the GLM has a solution when the sample size n is sufficiently large. The rate of this solution tending to the true value is determined. In an important special case, this rate is the same as specified in the LIL for iid partial sums and thus cannot be improved anymore.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.60934009,60804064,and 30800248)the China Post-doctoral Science Foundation (No.20100471727)the Science and Technology Department of Zhejiang Province,China (No.2009C34016)
文摘Square-root cubature Kalman filter (SCKF) is more effective for nonlinear state estimation than an unscented Kalman filter.In this paper,we study the design of nonlinear filters based on SCKF for the system with one step noise correlation and abrupt state change.First,we give the SCKF that deals with the one step correlation between process and measurement noises,SCKF-CN in short.Second,we introduce the idea of a strong tracking filter to construct the adaptive square-root factor of the prediction error covariance with a fading factor,which makes SCKF-CN obtain outstanding tracking performance to the system with target maneuver or abrupt state change.Accordingly,the tracking performance of SCKF is greatly improved.A universal nonlinear estimator is proposed,which can not only deal with the conventional nonlinear filter problem with high dimensionality and correlated noises,but also achieve an excellent strong tracking performance towards the abrupt change of target state.Three simulation examples with a bearings-only tracking system are illustrated to verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.
