社会保障制度对个体生育决策和总和生育率的深远影响早已被大量研究所证实,但由于人口政策对生育行为的限制,鲜有文献对中国情境进行探讨。本文考察了新型农村合作医疗制度的建立对居民生育意愿的影响。基于两期家庭决策模型的分析表明...社会保障制度对个体生育决策和总和生育率的深远影响早已被大量研究所证实,但由于人口政策对生育行为的限制,鲜有文献对中国情境进行探讨。本文考察了新型农村合作医疗制度的建立对居民生育意愿的影响。基于两期家庭决策模型的分析表明,带有补贴的新农合会对生育数量产生两种方向相反的效应:收入效应和挤出效应,前者导致生育意愿的提高,后者导致生育意愿的下降。利用中国健康与营养调查(China Health and Nutrition Survey,CHNS)2000-2009年的数据,本文发现挤出效应占主导地位,参加新农合使居民想再要孩子的意愿降低了3%一10%。据此,本文认为社会保障体系建设的持续推进将为放松人口政策提供空间,实现从强制少生到自愿适度生育的转变。展开更多
This paper compared fertility desire of the migrated and never migrated women in rural China, based on the survey data from 4 counties in Anhui and Sichuan, 2000. The contents of fertility desire include ideal number ...This paper compared fertility desire of the migrated and never migrated women in rural China, based on the survey data from 4 counties in Anhui and Sichuan, 2000. The contents of fertility desire include ideal number of children and sex preference. The influence of individual characteristics and migration experience to fertility desire are also analyzed. Results of this study show that the desired number of children of ever migrated women is significantly less than that of never migrated women. The influence is less significant if the women have returned home for a longer period. There is no significant difference among ever migrated women, regardless of the difference in migration experience.展开更多
文摘社会保障制度对个体生育决策和总和生育率的深远影响早已被大量研究所证实,但由于人口政策对生育行为的限制,鲜有文献对中国情境进行探讨。本文考察了新型农村合作医疗制度的建立对居民生育意愿的影响。基于两期家庭决策模型的分析表明,带有补贴的新农合会对生育数量产生两种方向相反的效应:收入效应和挤出效应,前者导致生育意愿的提高,后者导致生育意愿的下降。利用中国健康与营养调查(China Health and Nutrition Survey,CHNS)2000-2009年的数据,本文发现挤出效应占主导地位,参加新农合使居民想再要孩子的意愿降低了3%一10%。据此,本文认为社会保障体系建设的持续推进将为放松人口政策提供空间,实现从强制少生到自愿适度生育的转变。
文摘This paper compared fertility desire of the migrated and never migrated women in rural China, based on the survey data from 4 counties in Anhui and Sichuan, 2000. The contents of fertility desire include ideal number of children and sex preference. The influence of individual characteristics and migration experience to fertility desire are also analyzed. Results of this study show that the desired number of children of ever migrated women is significantly less than that of never migrated women. The influence is less significant if the women have returned home for a longer period. There is no significant difference among ever migrated women, regardless of the difference in migration experience.
