为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给...为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给出的描述人为气溶胶强迫的模块引入南京信息工程大学(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST)的地球系统模式(The NUIST Earth System Model,NESM)。之后,利用NESM模式评估地球辐射收支平衡对此人为气溶胶强迫的响应,并分析模式模拟结果的不确定性。评估给出的人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫为-0.45(±0.28)W·m^-2。其中,气溶胶直接辐射效应为-0.34(±0.01)W·m^-2,与第二次气溶胶比较计划(The second phase of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models,AeroComⅡ)的评估结果基本一致;气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响(包括半直接效应和间接效应)为-0.10(±0.30)W·m^-2,明显受到模式内部变率的干扰,具有较大的不确定性。展开更多
The effective radiative forcing （ERF） and associated surface air temperature change over eastern China are estimated using multi-model results from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）. The model ...The effective radiative forcing （ERF） and associated surface air temperature change over eastern China are estimated using multi-model results from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）. The model results show that, relative to 1850, the multi-model and annual mean aerosol ERF for the year 2005 is -4.14 W m^-2 at the top of the atmosphere over eastern China （20°-45°N, 105°-122.5°E）. As a result of this ERF, the multi-model and annual mean surface air temperature change in eastern China during 1850-2005 is -1.05℃, leading to a climate sensitivity of 0.24℃/ （Wm^-2） in this region.展开更多
文摘为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给出的描述人为气溶胶强迫的模块引入南京信息工程大学(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST)的地球系统模式(The NUIST Earth System Model,NESM)。之后,利用NESM模式评估地球辐射收支平衡对此人为气溶胶强迫的响应,并分析模式模拟结果的不确定性。评估给出的人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫为-0.45(±0.28)W·m^-2。其中,气溶胶直接辐射效应为-0.34(±0.01)W·m^-2,与第二次气溶胶比较计划(The second phase of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models,AeroComⅡ)的评估结果基本一致;气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响(包括半直接效应和间接效应)为-0.10(±0.30)W·m^-2,明显受到模式内部变率的干扰,具有较大的不确定性。
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[973 Program,grant number 2014CB441202]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers41475137 and 91544219]
文摘The effective radiative forcing （ERF） and associated surface air temperature change over eastern China are estimated using multi-model results from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）. The model results show that, relative to 1850, the multi-model and annual mean aerosol ERF for the year 2005 is -4.14 W m^-2 at the top of the atmosphere over eastern China （20°-45°N, 105°-122.5°E）. As a result of this ERF, the multi-model and annual mean surface air temperature change in eastern China during 1850-2005 is -1.05℃, leading to a climate sensitivity of 0.24℃/ （Wm^-2） in this region.
