This paper, using multiple-Hubbert model, forecasts oil production trend of Iran with special focus on Iran＇s insufficient investment for developing recently discovered oilfields and overproduction from mature oilfie...This paper, using multiple-Hubbert model, forecasts oil production trend of Iran with special focus on Iran＇s insufficient investment for developing recently discovered oilfields and overproduction from mature oilfields. This is mostly due to Iran＇s political and technical limitations to carry out oil and gas projects. The trend of Iran＇s oil production has been forecasted based on a multi-cycle modified Hubbert. Three different scenarios have been assumed. In the first scenario, it is assumed that Iran does not have any limitations to carry out oil and gas projects and develop its oilfields. International sanctions and lack of foreign investment have been taken into account in the second scenario. Overproduction from currently producing mature oilfields and its effect on production trend is investigated in the third scenario. The most important parameter to forecast oil production trend is URR （ultimate recoverable resource）. URR of Iran has been estimated by parabolic fractal curve. Here, based on the plotted parabolic fractal curve for the oil fields, amount of URR of Iran has been calculated that is around 200 Gb. First scenario has two peaks while the second and third scenarios have three peaks. All of the scenarios have forecasted Iran＇s first peak in 1975 at annual production rate of 2 Gb/Year. Based on first scenario, Iran＇s second peak will occur in 2029 at 2.334 Gb/Year. Second scenario has forecasted Iran＇s second and third peaks in 2011 at 1.575 Gb/Year and in 2064 at 2.205 Gb/Year respectively, and third scenario＇s peaks have been estimated to occur in 2011 at 1.573 Gb/Year and in 2061 at 2.030 Gb/Year.展开更多
Consequences of decommissioning oil fields on artisanal fishing activities are still little known in the literature. This paper is intended to shed some light on a process of dismantling and sinking of oil and gas str...Consequences of decommissioning oil fields on artisanal fishing activities are still little known in the literature. This paper is intended to shed some light on a process of dismantling and sinking of oil and gas structures in shallow waters, with severe disturbing impacts on low income artisanal fishing activities. From a socio-economic perspective, the relationship of oil industry with local communities is described, with the main perceived problems pointed out in local fishermen leadership perspective. The notions of ＂damages＂ and ＂mitigation＂ used by the oil industry are discussed in connection to the expansion and dismantling of oil installations during the past 20 yrs. A comparative view of oil fields decommissioning in Europe and Brazil during the late 1990s suggests the need to review transparency and social commitment standards which have been far less prominent in this Brazilian case. The authors believe that the Brazilian oil industry has acquired a social and environmental debt towards the whole society, as far as it has been unable to establish a clear and effective process for decommissioning their oil installations within the artisanal fishing areas of the Todosos Santos Bay. Furthermore, the discussion of fair and specific compensations has been avoided, which otherwise would be instrumental to regain local economic conditions found among fishermen just few decades ago.展开更多
文摘This paper, using multiple-Hubbert model, forecasts oil production trend of Iran with special focus on Iran＇s insufficient investment for developing recently discovered oilfields and overproduction from mature oilfields. This is mostly due to Iran＇s political and technical limitations to carry out oil and gas projects. The trend of Iran＇s oil production has been forecasted based on a multi-cycle modified Hubbert. Three different scenarios have been assumed. In the first scenario, it is assumed that Iran does not have any limitations to carry out oil and gas projects and develop its oilfields. International sanctions and lack of foreign investment have been taken into account in the second scenario. Overproduction from currently producing mature oilfields and its effect on production trend is investigated in the third scenario. The most important parameter to forecast oil production trend is URR （ultimate recoverable resource）. URR of Iran has been estimated by parabolic fractal curve. Here, based on the plotted parabolic fractal curve for the oil fields, amount of URR of Iran has been calculated that is around 200 Gb. First scenario has two peaks while the second and third scenarios have three peaks. All of the scenarios have forecasted Iran＇s first peak in 1975 at annual production rate of 2 Gb/Year. Based on first scenario, Iran＇s second peak will occur in 2029 at 2.334 Gb/Year. Second scenario has forecasted Iran＇s second and third peaks in 2011 at 1.575 Gb/Year and in 2064 at 2.205 Gb/Year respectively, and third scenario＇s peaks have been estimated to occur in 2011 at 1.573 Gb/Year and in 2061 at 2.030 Gb/Year.
文摘Consequences of decommissioning oil fields on artisanal fishing activities are still little known in the literature. This paper is intended to shed some light on a process of dismantling and sinking of oil and gas structures in shallow waters, with severe disturbing impacts on low income artisanal fishing activities. From a socio-economic perspective, the relationship of oil industry with local communities is described, with the main perceived problems pointed out in local fishermen leadership perspective. The notions of ＂damages＂ and ＂mitigation＂ used by the oil industry are discussed in connection to the expansion and dismantling of oil installations during the past 20 yrs. A comparative view of oil fields decommissioning in Europe and Brazil during the late 1990s suggests the need to review transparency and social commitment standards which have been far less prominent in this Brazilian case. The authors believe that the Brazilian oil industry has acquired a social and environmental debt towards the whole society, as far as it has been unable to establish a clear and effective process for decommissioning their oil installations within the artisanal fishing areas of the Todosos Santos Bay. Furthermore, the discussion of fair and specific compensations has been avoided, which otherwise would be instrumental to regain local economic conditions found among fishermen just few decades ago.
