中国科学院国家天文台自2001年成立以来,汇集了与太阳物理有关的创新研究队伍和观测基地,是我国规模最大的太阳物理研究群体,拥有理论研究、观测分析和设备研制等综合优势.20年来,国家天文台成功运行着多通道太阳磁场望远镜和太阳射电...中国科学院国家天文台自2001年成立以来,汇集了与太阳物理有关的创新研究队伍和观测基地,是我国规模最大的太阳物理研究群体,拥有理论研究、观测分析和设备研制等综合优势.20年来,国家天文台成功运行着多通道太阳磁场望远镜和太阳射电宽带动态频谱仪等世界一流的观测设备,研制了全日面太阳光学和磁场监测系统及明安图射电频谱日像仪(Mingantu Spectral Radioheliograph,MUSER)等新一代观测设备,正在研制中红外太阳磁场精确测量观测系统(accurate solar infrared magnetic measuring system,AIMS)、我国首个空间太阳望远镜ASO-S(Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory)的有效载荷全日面磁场望远镜(full-disk magnetograph,FMG)、米波-十米波射电频谱日像仪和行星际闪烁射电望远镜等新设备.本文着重回顾近20年国家天文台研究人员取得的一系列开拓性研究成果或亮点研究进展,进一步展望未来我国太阳物理界将主要在太阳磁场、太阳射电和深空太阳探测方面进行的重点突破,推动在太阳和日地物理中解决科学难题,包括太阳磁场与太阳周的起源、日冕加热、太阳爆发起源及其对日地空间环境的作用和影响等.展开更多
A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity dur...A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.展开更多
In thes note it is pointed out that the probability of flare-occurrence at different heliographic longitudes is related to the planetary tide force. There is a maximum flare-occurringprobability on the maximum phase o...In thes note it is pointed out that the probability of flare-occurrence at different heliographic longitudes is related to the planetary tide force. There is a maximum flare-occurringprobability on the maximum phase of the tide force and a sub-maximum occurring probabilityon the minimun phase. This could be used as a reference in forecasting solar flares.展开更多
文摘中国科学院国家天文台自2001年成立以来,汇集了与太阳物理有关的创新研究队伍和观测基地,是我国规模最大的太阳物理研究群体,拥有理论研究、观测分析和设备研制等综合优势.20年来,国家天文台成功运行着多通道太阳磁场望远镜和太阳射电宽带动态频谱仪等世界一流的观测设备,研制了全日面太阳光学和磁场监测系统及明安图射电频谱日像仪(Mingantu Spectral Radioheliograph,MUSER)等新一代观测设备,正在研制中红外太阳磁场精确测量观测系统(accurate solar infrared magnetic measuring system,AIMS)、我国首个空间太阳望远镜ASO-S(Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory)的有效载荷全日面磁场望远镜(full-disk magnetograph,FMG)、米波-十米波射电频谱日像仪和行星际闪烁射电望远镜等新设备.本文着重回顾近20年国家天文台研究人员取得的一系列开拓性研究成果或亮点研究进展,进一步展望未来我国太阳物理界将主要在太阳磁场、太阳射电和深空太阳探测方面进行的重点突破,推动在太阳和日地物理中解决科学难题,包括太阳磁场与太阳周的起源、日冕加热、太阳爆发起源及其对日地空间环境的作用和影响等.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KGCX3-SYW-403-10)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10973020,10673017 and 40890161)
文摘A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.
文摘In thes note it is pointed out that the probability of flare-occurrence at different heliographic longitudes is related to the planetary tide force. There is a maximum flare-occurringprobability on the maximum phase of the tide force and a sub-maximum occurring probabilityon the minimun phase. This could be used as a reference in forecasting solar flares.
