New perspectives regarding the possible cooling of the Earth's climate as a result of solar changes are reviewed in this paper.The major findings include:(1)solar activity is weakening to its very low level,which ...New perspectives regarding the possible cooling of the Earth's climate as a result of solar changes are reviewed in this paper.The major findings include:(1)solar activity is weakening to its very low level,which is comparable with the level in the early 20th century;(2)the current grand solar maximum has already lasted for eight 11-year solar cycles and might end in the coming one/two 11-year cycles;(3)a grand solar minimum might prevail in the next 100-200 years;and(4)the number of sunspots in the coming solar maximum(M)-year,around 2013,is an important indicator that needs to be closely monitored.展开更多
Utilized here is the Carte Synoptique solar filament archive, namely the catalogue of solar filaments from March 1919 to December 1989, corresponding to solar rotation numbers 876 to 1823 to study latitudinal migratio...Utilized here is the Carte Synoptique solar filament archive, namely the catalogue of solar filaments from March 1919 to December 1989, corresponding to solar rotation numbers 876 to 1823 to study latitudinal migration of solar activity at high latitudes. Except the well-known poleward migration of solar activity from middle latitudes to the poles, an equatorward migration is found from the solar poles toward middle latitudes (about 40°) within a normal cycle, which is neglected before, and the time in-terval for the former migration (4.4 years) is about 2.2 years shorter than that for the latter (6.6 years), indicating that the change from one migration to the other takes place around the maximum time of a normal cycle. In the future, a dynamo model should represent the migration from the poles toward middle latitudes of the Sun, besides the migration in "butterfly diagrams" and the "rush to the poles". The traditional extended activity cycle is actually a part of the period of the successive migration from the poles toward the solar equator.展开更多
基金supported by an R&D Special Found for Public Welfare Industry(Meteorology)(GYHY200706010)
文摘New perspectives regarding the possible cooling of the Earth's climate as a result of solar changes are reviewed in this paper.The major findings include:(1)solar activity is weakening to its very low level,which is comparable with the level in the early 20th century;(2)the current grand solar maximum has already lasted for eight 11-year solar cycles and might end in the coming one/two 11-year cycles;(3)a grand solar minimum might prevail in the next 100-200 years;and(4)the number of sunspots in the coming solar maximum(M)-year,around 2013,is an important indicator that needs to be closely monitored.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40636031 and 10573034)the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No. 2006CB806300)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Project (Grant No. KJCX2-YW-T04)
文摘Utilized here is the Carte Synoptique solar filament archive, namely the catalogue of solar filaments from March 1919 to December 1989, corresponding to solar rotation numbers 876 to 1823 to study latitudinal migration of solar activity at high latitudes. Except the well-known poleward migration of solar activity from middle latitudes to the poles, an equatorward migration is found from the solar poles toward middle latitudes (about 40°) within a normal cycle, which is neglected before, and the time in-terval for the former migration (4.4 years) is about 2.2 years shorter than that for the latter (6.6 years), indicating that the change from one migration to the other takes place around the maximum time of a normal cycle. In the future, a dynamo model should represent the migration from the poles toward middle latitudes of the Sun, besides the migration in "butterfly diagrams" and the "rush to the poles". The traditional extended activity cycle is actually a part of the period of the successive migration from the poles toward the solar equator.
