This study analyzed the interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） over the Pacific in the historical simulation and under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs, including RCP4.5 and RCPS.5...This study analyzed the interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） over the Pacific in the historical simulation and under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs, including RCP4.5 and RCPS.5） from 27 models archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIPS）. Its association with the Asian-Pacific oscillation （APO） was also investigated.The evaluation results showed that the multi-model ensemble mean （MME） and most of the individual models perform well in reproducing the relatively stronger interannual variability of SST over the North Pacific and tropical eastern Pacific. They can also capture reasonably well the observed in-phase and out-of-phase relationships of the APO with the SST in the above two regions, respectively. Under the RCP4.5 and RCPS.5 scenarios, the interannual variability of the SST over the North Pacific and the tropical eastern Pacific is projected by the MME to be weakened during 2050-99 compared to 1950-99. The majority of the CMIP5 models show the same projection as the MME. Besides, the MME projection indicates that the present relationship between the APO and the SST over those two regions would still be dominant under both RCPs. However, considerable discrepancies exist in the changes of the relationships among the individual models.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation[grant number 41275078]the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2016YFA0600701]
文摘This study analyzed the interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） over the Pacific in the historical simulation and under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs, including RCP4.5 and RCPS.5） from 27 models archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIPS）. Its association with the Asian-Pacific oscillation （APO） was also investigated.The evaluation results showed that the multi-model ensemble mean （MME） and most of the individual models perform well in reproducing the relatively stronger interannual variability of SST over the North Pacific and tropical eastern Pacific. They can also capture reasonably well the observed in-phase and out-of-phase relationships of the APO with the SST in the above two regions, respectively. Under the RCP4.5 and RCPS.5 scenarios, the interannual variability of the SST over the North Pacific and the tropical eastern Pacific is projected by the MME to be weakened during 2050-99 compared to 1950-99. The majority of the CMIP5 models show the same projection as the MME. Besides, the MME projection indicates that the present relationship between the APO and the SST over those two regions would still be dominant under both RCPs. However, considerable discrepancies exist in the changes of the relationships among the individual models.
