为了提高太阳电池阵多变量预测的精度,解决阳电池阵遥测参数存在周期波动与增长性互相耦合的问题,提出一种基于STL-Prophet-Informer模型的太阳电池阵多变量预测算法.该算法首先应用局部加权周期趋势分解算法(seasonal and trend decomp...为了提高太阳电池阵多变量预测的精度,解决阳电池阵遥测参数存在周期波动与增长性互相耦合的问题,提出一种基于STL-Prophet-Informer模型的太阳电池阵多变量预测算法.该算法首先应用局部加权周期趋势分解算法(seasonal and trend decomposition procedure based on loess,STL)对太阳电池阵的多个参数分解为趋势分量、周期分量和残差分量,然后采用对趋势性数据预测效果较好的Prophet预测趋势分量,Informer模型预测周期分量和残差分量,最后将各分量预测结果相加后得到总的太阳电池阵参数预测值.以某卫星太阳电池阵实际遥测数据做算例分析,提出算法的各项误差评价指标和单一的Informer模型、LSTM模型等相比有明显减小,将该组合预测模型用于太阳电池阵多变量参数预测中,可以提高参数预测精度,提升卫星自主运行性能.展开更多
Estimating weak rock mass modulus has historically proven difficult although this mechanical property is an important input to many types of geotechnical analyses. An empirical database of weak rock mass modulus with ...Estimating weak rock mass modulus has historically proven difficult although this mechanical property is an important input to many types of geotechnical analyses. An empirical database of weak rock mass modulus with associated detailed geotechnical parameters was assembled from plate loading tests per- formed at underground mines in Nevada, the Bakhtiary Dam project, and Portugues Dam project. The database was used to assess the accuracy of published single-variate models and to develop a multivari- ate model for predicting in-situ weak rock mass modulus when limited geoteehnical data are available. Only two of the published models were adequate for predicting modulus of weak rock masses over lim- ited ranges of alteration intensities, and none of the models provided good estimates of modulus over a range of geotechnical properties. In light of this shortcoming, a multivariate model was developed from the weak rock mass modulus dataset, and the new model is exponential in form and has the following independent variables： （1） average block size or joint spacing, （2） field estimated rock strength, （3） dis- continuity roughness, and （4） discontinuity infilling hardness. The multivariate model provided better estimates of modulus for both hard-blocky rock masses and intensely-altered rock masses.展开更多
Background Knowledge gaps across literature prevent current guidelines from providing the profile of elderly patients most likely to derive benefit fi^om invasive strategy （IS） in non ST-elevation myocardial infarct...Background Knowledge gaps across literature prevent current guidelines from providing the profile of elderly patients most likely to derive benefit fi^om invasive strategy （IS） in non ST-elevation myocardial infarction （NSTEMI）. Furthermore, the benefit of IS in a real-world elderly population with NSTEMI remains unclear. The aims of this study were to determine factors that lead the cardiologist to opt for an IS in elderly patients with NSTEMI, and to assess the impact of IS on the 6-month all-cause mortality. Methods This multicenter prospective study enrolled all consecutive patients aged 〉 75 years old who presented a NSTEMI and were hospitalized in cardiology intensive care unit between February 2014 and February 2015. Patients were compared on the basis of reperfusion strategy （invasive or conservative） and living status at six months, in order to determine multivariate predictors of the realization of an IS and multivariate predictors of 6-month mor- tality. Results A total of 141 patients were included; 87 （62%） underwent an IS. The strongest independent determinants of IS were younger age [odds ratio （OR）： 0.85, 95%-confidence interval （CI）： 0.78-0.92; P 〈 0.001） and lower ＂Cumulative Illness Rating Scale-Geriatric＂ number of categories score （OR： 0.83, 95%CI： 0.73-0.95; P = 0.002）. IS was not significantly associated with 6-month survival （OR： 0.80, 95%CI： 0.27-2.38; P = 0.69）. Conclusions In real-world elderly patients with NSTEMI, younger patients with fewer comorbidities profited more often from an IS. However, IS did not modify 6-month all-cause mortality.展开更多
文摘为了提高太阳电池阵多变量预测的精度,解决阳电池阵遥测参数存在周期波动与增长性互相耦合的问题,提出一种基于STL-Prophet-Informer模型的太阳电池阵多变量预测算法.该算法首先应用局部加权周期趋势分解算法(seasonal and trend decomposition procedure based on loess,STL)对太阳电池阵的多个参数分解为趋势分量、周期分量和残差分量,然后采用对趋势性数据预测效果较好的Prophet预测趋势分量,Informer模型预测周期分量和残差分量,最后将各分量预测结果相加后得到总的太阳电池阵参数预测值.以某卫星太阳电池阵实际遥测数据做算例分析,提出算法的各项误差评价指标和单一的Informer模型、LSTM模型等相比有明显减小,将该组合预测模型用于太阳电池阵多变量参数预测中,可以提高参数预测精度,提升卫星自主运行性能.
基金funded by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health through research contract 200-2011-39965(Principal Investigator Dr.Kallu)University of Nevada,Reno,NV
文摘Estimating weak rock mass modulus has historically proven difficult although this mechanical property is an important input to many types of geotechnical analyses. An empirical database of weak rock mass modulus with associated detailed geotechnical parameters was assembled from plate loading tests per- formed at underground mines in Nevada, the Bakhtiary Dam project, and Portugues Dam project. The database was used to assess the accuracy of published single-variate models and to develop a multivari- ate model for predicting in-situ weak rock mass modulus when limited geoteehnical data are available. Only two of the published models were adequate for predicting modulus of weak rock masses over lim- ited ranges of alteration intensities, and none of the models provided good estimates of modulus over a range of geotechnical properties. In light of this shortcoming, a multivariate model was developed from the weak rock mass modulus dataset, and the new model is exponential in form and has the following independent variables： （1） average block size or joint spacing, （2） field estimated rock strength, （3） dis- continuity roughness, and （4） discontinuity infilling hardness. The multivariate model provided better estimates of modulus for both hard-blocky rock masses and intensely-altered rock masses.
文摘Background Knowledge gaps across literature prevent current guidelines from providing the profile of elderly patients most likely to derive benefit fi^om invasive strategy （IS） in non ST-elevation myocardial infarction （NSTEMI）. Furthermore, the benefit of IS in a real-world elderly population with NSTEMI remains unclear. The aims of this study were to determine factors that lead the cardiologist to opt for an IS in elderly patients with NSTEMI, and to assess the impact of IS on the 6-month all-cause mortality. Methods This multicenter prospective study enrolled all consecutive patients aged 〉 75 years old who presented a NSTEMI and were hospitalized in cardiology intensive care unit between February 2014 and February 2015. Patients were compared on the basis of reperfusion strategy （invasive or conservative） and living status at six months, in order to determine multivariate predictors of the realization of an IS and multivariate predictors of 6-month mor- tality. Results A total of 141 patients were included; 87 （62%） underwent an IS. The strongest independent determinants of IS were younger age [odds ratio （OR）： 0.85, 95%-confidence interval （CI）： 0.78-0.92; P 〈 0.001） and lower ＂Cumulative Illness Rating Scale-Geriatric＂ number of categories score （OR： 0.83, 95%CI： 0.73-0.95; P = 0.002）. IS was not significantly associated with 6-month survival （OR： 0.80, 95%CI： 0.27-2.38; P = 0.69）. Conclusions In real-world elderly patients with NSTEMI, younger patients with fewer comorbidities profited more often from an IS. However, IS did not modify 6-month all-cause mortality.
