This study explores the model performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating precipitation extremes over the mid–high latitudes of Asia,as compared with predecessor models in the...This study explores the model performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating precipitation extremes over the mid–high latitudes of Asia,as compared with predecessor models in the previous phase,CMIP5.Results show that the multimodel ensemble median generally outperforms the individual models in simulating the climate means of precipitation extremes.The CMIP6 models possess a relatively higher capability in this respect than the CMIP5 models.However,discrepancies also exist between models and observation,insofar as most of the simulated indices are positively biased to varying degrees.With respect to the temporal performance of indices,the majority are overestimated at most time points,along with large uncertainty.Therefore,the capacity to simulate the interannual variability needs to be further improved.Furthermore,pairwise and multimodel ensemble comparisons were performed for 12 models to evaluate the performance of individual models,revealing that most of the new-version models are better than their predecessors,albeit with some variance in the metrics amongst models and indices.展开更多
近年来极端气候的发生频率和强度有明显增强的趋势,在我国尤为突出(Yin et al., 2023b),造成了越来越大的对经济社会和人民生命安全的威胁。我国科学家也越来越关注我国及东亚区域的极端气候问题。对比而言,亚洲中高纬区虽然也是气候变...近年来极端气候的发生频率和强度有明显增强的趋势,在我国尤为突出(Yin et al., 2023b),造成了越来越大的对经济社会和人民生命安全的威胁。我国科学家也越来越关注我国及东亚区域的极端气候问题。对比而言,亚洲中高纬区虽然也是气候变化的高敏感区,受到的关注却相当少,可能是源于气候资料的相对欠缺,也可能和亚洲高纬度区域(特别是西伯利亚地区)人口少、经济社会发展滞后有关。实际上,随着对于北极放大效应的研究的深入,极其有必要开展对整个亚洲中高纬区开展气候变化影响和极端气候研究,把我国科学家高度关注的研究区域从东亚区向北延伸。其中有很多关键科学问题需要研究,特别是该区域极端气候的形成与变异过程、机制以及可预测性,极端气候对生态系统的影响,极端气候的未来演变趋势,等等。因此,国家自然科学基金委地学部在择优的基础上以重大项目的方式支持了这个方面的研究(项目执行期为2020~2024年)。本文概要介绍了该项目的框架和若干初步研究进展。展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant numbers 41991284 and41922034the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences grant number XDA23090102the National Key Research and Development Program of China grant number 2016YFA0602401。
文摘This study explores the model performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating precipitation extremes over the mid–high latitudes of Asia,as compared with predecessor models in the previous phase,CMIP5.Results show that the multimodel ensemble median generally outperforms the individual models in simulating the climate means of precipitation extremes.The CMIP6 models possess a relatively higher capability in this respect than the CMIP5 models.However,discrepancies also exist between models and observation,insofar as most of the simulated indices are positively biased to varying degrees.With respect to the temporal performance of indices,the majority are overestimated at most time points,along with large uncertainty.Therefore,the capacity to simulate the interannual variability needs to be further improved.Furthermore,pairwise and multimodel ensemble comparisons were performed for 12 models to evaluate the performance of individual models,revealing that most of the new-version models are better than their predecessors,albeit with some variance in the metrics amongst models and indices.
文摘近年来极端气候的发生频率和强度有明显增强的趋势,在我国尤为突出(Yin et al., 2023b),造成了越来越大的对经济社会和人民生命安全的威胁。我国科学家也越来越关注我国及东亚区域的极端气候问题。对比而言,亚洲中高纬区虽然也是气候变化的高敏感区,受到的关注却相当少,可能是源于气候资料的相对欠缺,也可能和亚洲高纬度区域(特别是西伯利亚地区)人口少、经济社会发展滞后有关。实际上,随着对于北极放大效应的研究的深入,极其有必要开展对整个亚洲中高纬区开展气候变化影响和极端气候研究,把我国科学家高度关注的研究区域从东亚区向北延伸。其中有很多关键科学问题需要研究,特别是该区域极端气候的形成与变异过程、机制以及可预测性,极端气候对生态系统的影响,极端气候的未来演变趋势,等等。因此,国家自然科学基金委地学部在择优的基础上以重大项目的方式支持了这个方面的研究(项目执行期为2020~2024年)。本文概要介绍了该项目的框架和若干初步研究进展。
