Risk analysis has become more and more important in practical application, but there has not been a widely accepted frame work and model for the research. Motivated by factor analysis method and Kaplan-Garrick's q...Risk analysis has become more and more important in practical application, but there has not been a widely accepted frame work and model for the research. Motivated by factor analysis method and Kaplan-Garrick's quantitative definition of risk, a general risk model was established based on analyzing risk situations and employing information system and evidence theory, and Kaplan-Garrick's result was improved to introduce a frame word for analyzing and managing risk.展开更多
A new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model is proposed to investigate the effects of an advanced transportation information system (ATIS) on drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours in transpo...A new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model is proposed to investigate the effects of an advanced transportation information system (ATIS) on drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. In the model, drivers are divided into two classes. The first class is not equipped with ATIS, while the second class is equipped with ATIS. Different risk-taking path choice behaviours of the two classes are studied, respectively. A corresponding mixed equilibrium traffic assignment model is formulated as a variational inequality problem in terms of path flows, which is solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical results indicate that the ATIS can influence the drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours and the total system travel time in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. It is also found that under higher demand levels, the benefits of ATIS for network performance enhancement may be more obvious.展开更多
文摘Risk analysis has become more and more important in practical application, but there has not been a widely accepted frame work and model for the research. Motivated by factor analysis method and Kaplan-Garrick's quantitative definition of risk, a general risk model was established based on analyzing risk situations and employing information system and evidence theory, and Kaplan-Garrick's result was improved to introduce a frame word for analyzing and managing risk.
基金The National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No.2006AA11Z209)Youth Science and Technology Foundation of China University of Mining and Technology (No.2007A028)Natural Science Foundation of Beijing (No.9073018)
文摘A new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model is proposed to investigate the effects of an advanced transportation information system (ATIS) on drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. In the model, drivers are divided into two classes. The first class is not equipped with ATIS, while the second class is equipped with ATIS. Different risk-taking path choice behaviours of the two classes are studied, respectively. A corresponding mixed equilibrium traffic assignment model is formulated as a variational inequality problem in terms of path flows, which is solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical results indicate that the ATIS can influence the drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours and the total system travel time in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. It is also found that under higher demand levels, the benefits of ATIS for network performance enhancement may be more obvious.
