Due to the complex features of rock mass blastability assessment systems, an evaluation model of rock mass blastability was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement （UM） theory and the actual charac...Due to the complex features of rock mass blastability assessment systems, an evaluation model of rock mass blastability was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement （UM） theory and the actual characteristics of the project. Considering a comprehensive range of intact rock properties and discontinuous structures of rock mass, twelve main factors influencing the evaluation blastability of rock mass were taken into account in the UM model, and the blastability evaluation index system of rock mass was constructed. The unascertained evaluation indices corresponding to the selected factors for the actual situation were solved both qualitatively and quantitatively. Then, the UM function of each evaluation index was obtained based on the initial data for the analysis of the blastability of six rock mass at a highway improvement cutting site in North Wales. The index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory, and credible degree identification （CDI） criteria were established according to the UM theory. The results of rock mass blastability evaluation were obtained by the CDI criteria. The results show that the UM model assessment results agree well with the actual records, and are consistent with those of the fuzzy sets evaluation method. Meanwhile, the unascertained superiority degree of rock mass blastability of samples S1-$6 which can be calculated by scoring criteria are 3.428 5, 3.453 3, 4.058 7, 3.675 9, 3.516 7 and 3.289 7, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed method can take into account large amount of uncertain information in blastability evaluation, which can provide an effective, credible and feasible way for estimating the blastability of rock mass. Engineering practices show that it can complete the blastability assessment systematically and scientifically without any assumption by the proposed model, which can be applied to practical engineering.展开更多
Based on optimized forecast method of unascertained classifying,a unascer- tained measurement classifying model (UMC) to predict mining induced goaf collapse was established,The discriminated factors of the model are ...Based on optimized forecast method of unascertained classifying,a unascer- tained measurement classifying model (UMC) to predict mining induced goaf collapse was established,The discriminated factors of the model are influential factors including over- burden layer type,overburden layer thickness,the complex degree of geologic structure, the inclination angle of coal bed,volume rate of the cavity region,the vertical goaf depth from the surface and space superposition layer of the goaf region.Unascertained mea- surement (UM) function of each factor was calculated.The unascertained measurement to indicate the classification center and the grade of waiting forecast sample was determined by the UM distance between the synthesis index of waiting forecast samples and index of every classification.The training samples were tested by the established model,and the correct rate is 100%.Furthermore,the seven waiting forecast samples were predicted by the UMC model.The results show that the forecast results are fully consistent with the ac- tual situation.展开更多
The ranking problem is studied when the pairwise comparisons values are unoertain in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. The method of constructing the judgment matrix is presented when the pairwise comparisons va...The ranking problem is studied when the pairwise comparisons values are unoertain in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. The method of constructing the judgment matrix is presented when the pairwise comparisons values are denoted by the unascertained three-valued reciprocal scales. By turning the reciprocal judgment matrix into attribute judgment matrix, the method to check the consistency of the pairwise comparisons judgment matrix and the calculation method of weighting coefficients are given. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
In order to accurately forecast the load of power system and enhance the stability of the power network, a novel unascertained mathematics based recurrent neural network (UMRNN) for power intelligence center (PIC) was...In order to accurately forecast the load of power system and enhance the stability of the power network, a novel unascertained mathematics based recurrent neural network (UMRNN) for power intelligence center (PIC) was created through three steps. First, by combining with the general project uncertain element transmission theory (GPUET), the basic definitions of stochastic, fuzzy, and grey uncertain elements were given based on the principal types of uncertain information. Second, a power dynamic alliance including four sectors: generation sector, transmission sector, distribution sector and customers was established. The key factors were amended according to the four transmission topologies of uncertain elements, thus the new factors entered the power intelligence center as the input elements. Finally, in the intelligence handing background of PIC, by performing uncertain and recursive process to the input values of network, and combining unascertained mathematics, the novel load forecasting model was built. Three different approaches were put forward to forecast an eastern regional power grid load in China. The root mean square error (ERMS) demonstrates that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model UMRNN is 3% higher than that of BP neural network (BPNN), and 5% higher than that of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Besides, an example also shows that the average relative error of the first quarter of 2008 forecasted by UMRNN is only 2.59%, which has high precision.展开更多
Coal burst is a severe hazard that can result in fatalities and damage of facilities in underground coal mines.To address this issue,a robust unascertained combination model is proposed to study the coal burst hazard ...Coal burst is a severe hazard that can result in fatalities and damage of facilities in underground coal mines.To address this issue,a robust unascertained combination model is proposed to study the coal burst hazard based on an updated database.Four assessment indexes are used in the model,which are the dynamic failure duration(DT),elastic energy index(WET),impact energy index(KE)and uniaxial compressive strength(RC).Four membership functions,including linear(L),parabolic(P),S and Weibull(W)functions,are proposed to measure the uncertainty level of individual index.The corresponding weights are determined through information entropy(EN),analysis hierarchy process(AHP)and synthetic weights(CW).Simultaneously,the classification criteria,including unascertained cluster(UC)and credible identification principle(CIP),are analyzed.The combination algorithm,consisting of P function,CW and CIP(P-CW-CIP),is selected as the optimal classification model in function of theory analysis and to train the samples.Ultimately,the established ensemble model is further validated through test samples with 100%accuracy.The results reveal that the hybrid model has a great potential in the coal burst hazard evaluation in underground coal mines.展开更多
An optimization model of underground mining method selection was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement theory.Considering the geologic conditions,technology,economy and safety production,ten main f...An optimization model of underground mining method selection was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement theory.Considering the geologic conditions,technology,economy and safety production,ten main factors influencing the selection of mining method were taken into account,and the comprehensive evaluation index system of mining method selection was constructed.The unascertained evaluation indices corresponding to the selected factors for the actual situation were solved both qualitatively and quantitatively.New measurement standards were constructed.Then,the unascertained measurement function of each evaluation index was established.The index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory,and credible degree recognition criteria were established according to the unascertained measurement theory.The results of mining method evaluation were obtained using the credible degree criteria,thus the best underground mining method was determined.Furthermore,this model was employed for the comprehensive evaluation and selection of the chosen standard mining methods in Xinli Gold Mine in Sanshandao of China.The results show that the relative superiority degrees of mining methods can be calculated using the unascertained measurement optimization model,so the optimal method can be easily determined.Meanwhile,the proposed method can take into account large amount of uncertain information in mining method selection,which can provide an effective way for selecting the optimal underground mining method.展开更多
Phosphorus is an essential element in agricultural production and chemical industry. However, since the risk of casualties and economic loss by mining accidents, the application of clean and safe production in phospho...Phosphorus is an essential element in agricultural production and chemical industry. However, since the risk of casualties and economic loss by mining accidents, the application of clean and safe production in phosphorus mines encounters great challenges. For this purpose, a man-machine-environment system composed of evaluation indexes was established, and the grading standards of indexes were defined. Firstly, the measurements of 39 qualitative indexes were obtained through the survey data. According to the measured values of 31 quantitative indexes, the measurements of quantitative indexes were calculated by linear measurement function(LM) and other three functions. Then the singleindex measurement evaluation matrixes were established. Secondly, the entropy weight method was used to determine the weights of each index directly. The analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was also applied to calculate the weights of index and index factor hierarchies after the established hierarchical model. The weights of system hierarchies were given by the grid-based fuzzy Borda method(GFB). The comprehensive weights were determined by the combination method of AHP and GFB(CAG). Furthermore, the multi-index comprehensive measurement evaluation vectors were obtained.Thirdly, the vectors were evaluated by the credible degree recognition(CDR) and the maximum membership(TMM)criteria. Based on the above functions, methods, and criteria, 16 combination evaluation methods were recommended.Finally, the clean and safe production grade of Kaiyang phosphate mine in China was evaluated. The results show that the LM-CAG-CDR is the most reasonable method, which can not only determine the clean and safe production grade of phosphorus mines, but also improve the development level of clean and safe mining of phosphorus mines for guidance.In addition, some beneficial suggestions and measures were also proposed to advance the clean and safe production grade of Kaiyang phosphorus mine.展开更多
Taking the mechanism of technological construction guidance theory and mode which consists of "objective-construction-evaluation-construction-objective" as a starting point, on the basis of county agricultur...Taking the mechanism of technological construction guidance theory and mode which consists of "objective-construction-evaluation-construction-objective" as a starting point, on the basis of county agricultural technological innovation ability and its index definition, this paper researches the constructing system of county agricultural technological innovation ability. Firstly, on the basis of defining county agricultural technological innovation ability and the definition of index, according to the principle of purposefulness, scientificity, systematicness, integration of dynamic state and static state, integration of quantitativeness and qualitativeness and so on, we construct the multi-level measuring system of county agricultural technological innovation ability, including 4 first-level indices, namely technological innovation environment, technological innovation basis, technological innovation ability, and technological innovation efficiency; 15 second-level indices, such as technological policy, technological system mechanism, technological institution construction, ability of innovation subject, ability of industrial expansion, scale merit, technological contribution rate. Moreover, this system has 45 third-level indices. Then, by using unascertained mathematics method and AHM method, we establish the multi-level unascertained composite measuring model of county agricultural technological innovation ability index. Finally, by using the survey data of one county in Hebei Province, and the established county agricultural technological innovation ability index model, we get the county agricultural technological innovation ability index of 0.711 by calculation, that is, the innovation ability is at the intermediate level, namely the modern agricultural sub-stage. The empirical research proves the correctness and applicability of this model.展开更多
Safety assessment of offshore platforms is an urgent task. Such assessments are now focusing on the structure, maintenance, and retirement of a platform. Some methods employed have many shortcomings. For example, they...Safety assessment of offshore platforms is an urgent task. Such assessments are now focusing on the structure, maintenance, and retirement of a platform. Some methods employed have many shortcomings. For example, they cannot make the reliability adequately explicable. Therefore, a mathematical tool, the unascertained measure, was introduced. First, the basic knowledge of the unascertained sets was introduced briefly. Second, the unascertained measure was defined and credible identification was set up. The method has been introduced into the fields for safety assessment of a jacket loadout procedure. Engineering practices showed that it can complete the safety assessment systematically and scientifically without any assumption. The work should have significance in theory and practice for offshore engineering.展开更多
Using the theory and method of unascertained measure, an unascertained measure model and the related confidence rule are established to assess the safety state of ship. Thus, the dangerous factors in the hull system c...Using the theory and method of unascertained measure, an unascertained measure model and the related confidence rule are established to assess the safety state of ship. Thus, the dangerous factors in the hull system can be identified, and the accident possibility, loss, and injury degree can be forcasted. An application result shows that the the proposed method is effective in assessment of the traffic safety of ships, and it is more simple in computation than the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method. The proposed method can provide a scientific basis for realizing shipping transportation security and formulating preventive measures.展开更多
Through denoting each expert as an agent and viewing a multiple criteria decision-making as a synthesis problem of aggregating experts＇ ratings, a multi-agent blind model （MABM） is developed for regional eco-enviro...Through denoting each expert as an agent and viewing a multiple criteria decision-making as a synthesis problem of aggregating experts＇ ratings, a multi-agent blind model （MABM） is developed for regional eco-environmental quality assessment. In this model, the ratings of the evaluated object under an index, given by expert group, are first utilized to construct a series of blind numbers. In general, each index will correspond to different blind numbers. On the basis of aggregating index weights, the rank score in the form of a blind number is obtained for the evaluated object. Then, by means of calculating expected value of the above blind number, its rank score is further converted into a crisp value. By way of comparing the expected value with classification standards, eco-environmental quality of the evaluated sample could he identified successfully in the end. As a case, the MABM is used to evaluate the eco-environmental quality of Chaohu Lake basin. Study result shows that the MABM is a useful model for regional eco-environmental quality assessment.展开更多
Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwestern China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people’s life and property.Fortunately,landslide early-warning is one of the most ...Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwestern China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people’s life and property.Fortunately,landslide early-warning is one of the most important tools for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation.However,the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is limited in many remote mountain areas and the stability of the slope is easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes,leading to difficulties to accurately realize early warning of landslide hazards by statistical methods.The proposed warning method is divided into rainfall warning component and deformation warning component because the deformation induced by rainfall has the characteristic of hysteretic nature.Rainfall,tilted angle and crack width are chosen as monitoring indexes.Rainfall grade level that contains rainfall intensity and duration information is graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3-D finite difference numerical simulation method,and then is applied using the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored points.Finally,based on the system reliability theory,we establish a comprehensive landslide warning level method that provides four early warning levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall events.The application of this method at a landslide site yield generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early warnings.展开更多
The index system of regional industrial structure is set up. There are two delaminated levels, the top layer evaluation and the bottom one on which the top evaluation is based. That is the characteristics of the evalu...The index system of regional industrial structure is set up. There are two delaminated levels, the top layer evaluation and the bottom one on which the top evaluation is based. That is the characteristics of the evaluation of regional industry structure. The distinction between the two evaluation levels involves the two essentially different two index weights, the unsscertalned comprehensive evaluating model together with division weight are used in the bottom evaluation, and expert weight in the top layer evaluation. In view of the evaluation of regional industrial structure, a sort of comparatively reasonable utility evaluation model is set up. Take the case of Beijing and other six provinces and cities is positively analyzed, which reflects the actual regional industrial structure.展开更多
In market economics, the regional technological innovation ability has become an important factor in the sustainable development of this region and important position in the region＇s competition. In this paper, the a...In market economics, the regional technological innovation ability has become an important factor in the sustainable development of this region and important position in the region＇s competition. In this paper, the application of unascertained measure method in the ability of the regional technological innovation is studied. The appraisal index system is setup and the unascertained measure model is given . At last, an example is given to verify the theory model.展开更多
A new uncertain information model, i.e. unascertainment, which is different from randomness,fuzziness and grayness, has been introduced into information fusion to give a reasoning method,which is basedon addition of u...A new uncertain information model, i.e. unascertainment, which is different from randomness,fuzziness and grayness, has been introduced into information fusion to give a reasoning method,which is basedon addition of unascertained rational number and can be used to recognize spatial point targets. The validity ofthe method proposed is verified through an example.展开更多
基金Project(50934006) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2010CB732004) supported by the National Basic Research Program of China+1 种基金Project(2009ssxt230) supported by the Central South University Innovation Fund,ChinaProject(CX2011B119) supported by the Graduated Students’Research and Innovation Fund of Hunan Province,China
文摘Due to the complex features of rock mass blastability assessment systems, an evaluation model of rock mass blastability was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement （UM） theory and the actual characteristics of the project. Considering a comprehensive range of intact rock properties and discontinuous structures of rock mass, twelve main factors influencing the evaluation blastability of rock mass were taken into account in the UM model, and the blastability evaluation index system of rock mass was constructed. The unascertained evaluation indices corresponding to the selected factors for the actual situation were solved both qualitatively and quantitatively. Then, the UM function of each evaluation index was obtained based on the initial data for the analysis of the blastability of six rock mass at a highway improvement cutting site in North Wales. The index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory, and credible degree identification （CDI） criteria were established according to the UM theory. The results of rock mass blastability evaluation were obtained by the CDI criteria. The results show that the UM model assessment results agree well with the actual records, and are consistent with those of the fuzzy sets evaluation method. Meanwhile, the unascertained superiority degree of rock mass blastability of samples S1-$6 which can be calculated by scoring criteria are 3.428 5, 3.453 3, 4.058 7, 3.675 9, 3.516 7 and 3.289 7, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed method can take into account large amount of uncertain information in blastability evaluation, which can provide an effective, credible and feasible way for estimating the blastability of rock mass. Engineering practices show that it can complete the blastability assessment systematically and scientifically without any assumption by the proposed model, which can be applied to practical engineering.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(50490274)Mittal Innovative and Enterprising Project at Center South University(07MX14)
文摘Based on optimized forecast method of unascertained classifying,a unascer- tained measurement classifying model (UMC) to predict mining induced goaf collapse was established,The discriminated factors of the model are influential factors including over- burden layer type,overburden layer thickness,the complex degree of geologic structure, the inclination angle of coal bed,volume rate of the cavity region,the vertical goaf depth from the surface and space superposition layer of the goaf region.Unascertained mea- surement (UM) function of each factor was calculated.The unascertained measurement to indicate the classification center and the grade of waiting forecast sample was determined by the UM distance between the synthesis index of waiting forecast samples and index of every classification.The training samples were tested by the established model,and the correct rate is 100%.Furthermore,the seven waiting forecast samples were predicted by the UMC model.The results show that the forecast results are fully consistent with the ac- tual situation.
文摘The ranking problem is studied when the pairwise comparisons values are unoertain in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. The method of constructing the judgment matrix is presented when the pairwise comparisons values are denoted by the unascertained three-valued reciprocal scales. By turning the reciprocal judgment matrix into attribute judgment matrix, the method to check the consistency of the pairwise comparisons judgment matrix and the calculation method of weighting coefficients are given. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金Projects(70572090, 70373017) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to accurately forecast the load of power system and enhance the stability of the power network, a novel unascertained mathematics based recurrent neural network (UMRNN) for power intelligence center (PIC) was created through three steps. First, by combining with the general project uncertain element transmission theory (GPUET), the basic definitions of stochastic, fuzzy, and grey uncertain elements were given based on the principal types of uncertain information. Second, a power dynamic alliance including four sectors: generation sector, transmission sector, distribution sector and customers was established. The key factors were amended according to the four transmission topologies of uncertain elements, thus the new factors entered the power intelligence center as the input elements. Finally, in the intelligence handing background of PIC, by performing uncertain and recursive process to the input values of network, and combining unascertained mathematics, the novel load forecasting model was built. Three different approaches were put forward to forecast an eastern regional power grid load in China. The root mean square error (ERMS) demonstrates that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model UMRNN is 3% higher than that of BP neural network (BPNN), and 5% higher than that of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Besides, an example also shows that the average relative error of the first quarter of 2008 forecasted by UMRNN is only 2.59%, which has high precision.
基金funded by the National Science Foundation of China(Nos.72088101 and 41807259)the Innovation-Driven Project of Central South University(No.2020CX040)the Shenghua Lieying Program of Central South University(Principle Investigator:Dr.Jian Zhou)。
文摘Coal burst is a severe hazard that can result in fatalities and damage of facilities in underground coal mines.To address this issue,a robust unascertained combination model is proposed to study the coal burst hazard based on an updated database.Four assessment indexes are used in the model,which are the dynamic failure duration(DT),elastic energy index(WET),impact energy index(KE)and uniaxial compressive strength(RC).Four membership functions,including linear(L),parabolic(P),S and Weibull(W)functions,are proposed to measure the uncertainty level of individual index.The corresponding weights are determined through information entropy(EN),analysis hierarchy process(AHP)and synthetic weights(CW).Simultaneously,the classification criteria,including unascertained cluster(UC)and credible identification principle(CIP),are analyzed.The combination algorithm,consisting of P function,CW and CIP(P-CW-CIP),is selected as the optimal classification model in function of theory analysis and to train the samples.Ultimately,the established ensemble model is further validated through test samples with 100%accuracy.The results reveal that the hybrid model has a great potential in the coal burst hazard evaluation in underground coal mines.
基金Project(2007CB209402) supported by the National Basic Research Program of China Project(SKLGDUEK0906) supported by the Research Fund of State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering of China
文摘An optimization model of underground mining method selection was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement theory.Considering the geologic conditions,technology,economy and safety production,ten main factors influencing the selection of mining method were taken into account,and the comprehensive evaluation index system of mining method selection was constructed.The unascertained evaluation indices corresponding to the selected factors for the actual situation were solved both qualitatively and quantitatively.New measurement standards were constructed.Then,the unascertained measurement function of each evaluation index was established.The index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory,and credible degree recognition criteria were established according to the unascertained measurement theory.The results of mining method evaluation were obtained using the credible degree criteria,thus the best underground mining method was determined.Furthermore,this model was employed for the comprehensive evaluation and selection of the chosen standard mining methods in Xinli Gold Mine in Sanshandao of China.The results show that the relative superiority degrees of mining methods can be calculated using the unascertained measurement optimization model,so the optimal method can be easily determined.Meanwhile,the proposed method can take into account large amount of uncertain information in mining method selection,which can provide an effective way for selecting the optimal underground mining method.
基金Project(51974362) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2282020cxqd055) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,ChinaProject(2021-QYC-10050-25631) supported by the Department of Emergency Management of Hunan Province,China。
文摘Phosphorus is an essential element in agricultural production and chemical industry. However, since the risk of casualties and economic loss by mining accidents, the application of clean and safe production in phosphorus mines encounters great challenges. For this purpose, a man-machine-environment system composed of evaluation indexes was established, and the grading standards of indexes were defined. Firstly, the measurements of 39 qualitative indexes were obtained through the survey data. According to the measured values of 31 quantitative indexes, the measurements of quantitative indexes were calculated by linear measurement function(LM) and other three functions. Then the singleindex measurement evaluation matrixes were established. Secondly, the entropy weight method was used to determine the weights of each index directly. The analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was also applied to calculate the weights of index and index factor hierarchies after the established hierarchical model. The weights of system hierarchies were given by the grid-based fuzzy Borda method(GFB). The comprehensive weights were determined by the combination method of AHP and GFB(CAG). Furthermore, the multi-index comprehensive measurement evaluation vectors were obtained.Thirdly, the vectors were evaluated by the credible degree recognition(CDR) and the maximum membership(TMM)criteria. Based on the above functions, methods, and criteria, 16 combination evaluation methods were recommended.Finally, the clean and safe production grade of Kaiyang phosphate mine in China was evaluated. The results show that the LM-CAG-CDR is the most reasonable method, which can not only determine the clean and safe production grade of phosphorus mines, but also improve the development level of clean and safe mining of phosphorus mines for guidance.In addition, some beneficial suggestions and measures were also proposed to advance the clean and safe production grade of Kaiyang phosphorus mine.
基金Supported by Hebei Provincial Science&Technology Department Soft Sciences Research Program (10457204D-18)
文摘Taking the mechanism of technological construction guidance theory and mode which consists of "objective-construction-evaluation-construction-objective" as a starting point, on the basis of county agricultural technological innovation ability and its index definition, this paper researches the constructing system of county agricultural technological innovation ability. Firstly, on the basis of defining county agricultural technological innovation ability and the definition of index, according to the principle of purposefulness, scientificity, systematicness, integration of dynamic state and static state, integration of quantitativeness and qualitativeness and so on, we construct the multi-level measuring system of county agricultural technological innovation ability, including 4 first-level indices, namely technological innovation environment, technological innovation basis, technological innovation ability, and technological innovation efficiency; 15 second-level indices, such as technological policy, technological system mechanism, technological institution construction, ability of innovation subject, ability of industrial expansion, scale merit, technological contribution rate. Moreover, this system has 45 third-level indices. Then, by using unascertained mathematics method and AHM method, we establish the multi-level unascertained composite measuring model of county agricultural technological innovation ability index. Finally, by using the survey data of one county in Hebei Province, and the established county agricultural technological innovation ability index model, we get the county agricultural technological innovation ability index of 0.711 by calculation, that is, the innovation ability is at the intermediate level, namely the modern agricultural sub-stage. The empirical research proves the correctness and applicability of this model.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (505079047)
文摘Safety assessment of offshore platforms is an urgent task. Such assessments are now focusing on the structure, maintenance, and retirement of a platform. Some methods employed have many shortcomings. For example, they cannot make the reliability adequately explicable. Therefore, a mathematical tool, the unascertained measure, was introduced. First, the basic knowledge of the unascertained sets was introduced briefly. Second, the unascertained measure was defined and credible identification was set up. The method has been introduced into the fields for safety assessment of a jacket loadout procedure. Engineering practices showed that it can complete the safety assessment systematically and scientifically without any assumption. The work should have significance in theory and practice for offshore engineering.
文摘Using the theory and method of unascertained measure, an unascertained measure model and the related confidence rule are established to assess the safety state of ship. Thus, the dangerous factors in the hull system can be identified, and the accident possibility, loss, and injury degree can be forcasted. An application result shows that the the proposed method is effective in assessment of the traffic safety of ships, and it is more simple in computation than the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method. The proposed method can provide a scientific basis for realizing shipping transportation security and formulating preventive measures.
基金Under the auspices of the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (No. 050450303 )
文摘Through denoting each expert as an agent and viewing a multiple criteria decision-making as a synthesis problem of aggregating experts＇ ratings, a multi-agent blind model （MABM） is developed for regional eco-environmental quality assessment. In this model, the ratings of the evaluated object under an index, given by expert group, are first utilized to construct a series of blind numbers. In general, each index will correspond to different blind numbers. On the basis of aggregating index weights, the rank score in the form of a blind number is obtained for the evaluated object. Then, by means of calculating expected value of the above blind number, its rank score is further converted into a crisp value. By way of comparing the expected value with classification standards, eco-environmental quality of the evaluated sample could he identified successfully in the end. As a case, the MABM is used to evaluate the eco-environmental quality of Chaohu Lake basin. Study result shows that the MABM is a useful model for regional eco-environmental quality assessment.
基金sponsored by National KeyResearch and Development Program(2018YFC0809400)"Safety Guarantee Technology of Power Grid Facilities in Large Region under Extreme Conditions"and Scientific Program of State Grid Corporation of China(GCB17201800051)"Research for application of geological hazard analysis technology on strategic transmission channel of Sichuan-Tibet Plateau based on synthetic aperture radar"。
文摘Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwestern China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people’s life and property.Fortunately,landslide early-warning is one of the most important tools for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation.However,the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is limited in many remote mountain areas and the stability of the slope is easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes,leading to difficulties to accurately realize early warning of landslide hazards by statistical methods.The proposed warning method is divided into rainfall warning component and deformation warning component because the deformation induced by rainfall has the characteristic of hysteretic nature.Rainfall,tilted angle and crack width are chosen as monitoring indexes.Rainfall grade level that contains rainfall intensity and duration information is graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3-D finite difference numerical simulation method,and then is applied using the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored points.Finally,based on the system reliability theory,we establish a comprehensive landslide warning level method that provides four early warning levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall events.The application of this method at a landslide site yield generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early warnings.
基金This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China（60474019）.
文摘The index system of regional industrial structure is set up. There are two delaminated levels, the top layer evaluation and the bottom one on which the top evaluation is based. That is the characteristics of the evaluation of regional industry structure. The distinction between the two evaluation levels involves the two essentially different two index weights, the unsscertalned comprehensive evaluating model together with division weight are used in the bottom evaluation, and expert weight in the top layer evaluation. In view of the evaluation of regional industrial structure, a sort of comparatively reasonable utility evaluation model is set up. Take the case of Beijing and other six provinces and cities is positively analyzed, which reflects the actual regional industrial structure.
基金This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （60474019） and Natural Science Fund of Hebei Province （F2005000482）
文摘In market economics, the regional technological innovation ability has become an important factor in the sustainable development of this region and important position in the region＇s competition. In this paper, the application of unascertained measure method in the ability of the regional technological innovation is studied. The appraisal index system is setup and the unascertained measure model is given . At last, an example is given to verify the theory model.
文摘A new uncertain information model, i.e. unascertainment, which is different from randomness,fuzziness and grayness, has been introduced into information fusion to give a reasoning method,which is basedon addition of unascertained rational number and can be used to recognize spatial point targets. The validity ofthe method proposed is verified through an example.
