The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period,in a naïve,uninfected population.It is well-known that the e...The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period,in a naïve,uninfected population.It is well-known that the estimation of this number may vary due to several methodological issues,including different assumptions and choice of parameters,utilized models,used datasets and estimation period.With the spreading of the novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)infection,the reproduction number has been found to vary,reflecting the dynamics of transmission of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the case reporting rate.Due to significant variations in the control strategies,which have been changing over time,and thanks to the introduction of detection technologies that have been rapidly improved,enabling to shorten the time from infection/symptoms onset to diagnosis,leading to faster confirmation of the new coronavirus cases,our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV need to be revised.By using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates,we refit our previously proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th,2020 and re-estimated the effective daily reproduction ratio that better quantifies the evolution of the interventions.We estimated when the effective daily reproduction ratio has fallen below 1 and when the epidemics will peak.Our updated findings suggest that the best measure is persistent and strict self-isolation.The epidemics will continue to grow,and can peak soon with the peak time depending highly on the public health interventions practically implemented.展开更多
Background:As reported by the World Health Organization,a novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January,2020.The virus was...Background:As reported by the World Health Organization,a novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January,2020.The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February,2020.This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.Methods:In this study,we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source(probably be bats)to the human infection.Since the Bats-HostsReservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market(reservoir)to people,we simplified the model as Reservoir-People(RP)transmission network model.The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number(R0)from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.Results:The value of R0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.Conclusions:Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries,similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome,but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.展开更多
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers:11631012(YX,ST),61772017(ST))by the Canada Research Chair Program(grant number:230720(JW)the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(Grant number:105588-2011(JW).
文摘The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period,in a naïve,uninfected population.It is well-known that the estimation of this number may vary due to several methodological issues,including different assumptions and choice of parameters,utilized models,used datasets and estimation period.With the spreading of the novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)infection,the reproduction number has been found to vary,reflecting the dynamics of transmission of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the case reporting rate.Due to significant variations in the control strategies,which have been changing over time,and thanks to the introduction of detection technologies that have been rapidly improved,enabling to shorten the time from infection/symptoms onset to diagnosis,leading to faster confirmation of the new coronavirus cases,our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV need to be revised.By using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates,we refit our previously proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th,2020 and re-estimated the effective daily reproduction ratio that better quantifies the evolution of the interventions.We estimated when the effective daily reproduction ratio has fallen below 1 and when the epidemics will peak.Our updated findings suggest that the best measure is persistent and strict self-isolation.The epidemics will continue to grow,and can peak soon with the peak time depending highly on the public health interventions practically implemented.
基金This study was supported by Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program(No:3502Z2020YJ03).
文摘Background:As reported by the World Health Organization,a novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January,2020.The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February,2020.This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.Methods:In this study,we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source(probably be bats)to the human infection.Since the Bats-HostsReservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market(reservoir)to people,we simplified the model as Reservoir-People(RP)transmission network model.The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number(R0)from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.Results:The value of R0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.Conclusions:Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries,similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome,but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.
