美国总统特朗普在竞选时支持“美国优先”的贸易保护主义，曾威胁对中国和其他贸易伙伴国的进口产品征收高额关税。过去一年，中美贸易关系更是复杂多变，从贸易战一触即发到双方走向贸易谈判。本文基于Eaton and Kortum（2002）的多部...美国总统特朗普在竞选时支持“美国优先”的贸易保护主义，曾威胁对中国和其他贸易伙伴国的进口产品征收高额关税。过去一年，中美贸易关系更是复杂多变，从贸易战一触即发到双方走向贸易谈判。本文基于Eaton and Kortum（2002）的多部门一多国家一产业联系的一瑕均衡模型，评估如果美国发动对中国的贸易战，将会对中国及全球62个经济体造成的福利影响。本文主要分析了一旦美国对中国或其他主要工业国家征收45％的关税，中国是否采取反制措施的两种不同情况。校准结果显示，如美国发起贸易战，会对全球贸易造成灾难性影响。但美国也会在可能的贸易战中受损巨大。对中国而言，扩大开放，增加进口减少贸易顺差，是反制美国挑起的中美贸易摩擦最好的选择。展开更多
Technological advances,innovation and the new industry 4.0 paradigm guide Distribution System Operators towards a competitive market that requires the articulation of flexible demand response systems.The lack of measu...Technological advances,innovation and the new industry 4.0 paradigm guide Distribution System Operators towards a competitive market that requires the articulation of flexible demand response systems.The lack of measurement and standardization systems in the industry process chain in developing countries prevents the penetration of demand management models,generating inefficiency in the analysis and processing of informa-tion to validate the flexibility potential that large consumers can contribute to the network operator.In this sense,the research uses as input variables the energy and power of the load profile provided by the utility energy meter to obtain the disaggregated forecast in quarter-hour intervals in 4-time windows validated through metrics and its results evaluated by the RMS error to get the total error generated by the methodology with the appli-cation of Machine Learning and Big Data techniques in the Python computational tool through Combinatorial Disaggregation Optimization and Factorial Hidden Markov models.展开更多
This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs.The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China'...This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs.The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China's exports of tariffed products to the US(i.e.,trade destruction effect),especially intermediate and labor-intensive products.On the other hand,they significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to the third market(i.e.,trade deflection effect).For the$50 billion list,both the trade destruction effect and trade deflection effect are concentrated on processing exports,and the US additional tariffs significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to ASEAN,Japan and Australia.For the$200 billion list,the US additional tariffs boost China's exports of chemicals,textiles,wood,metal products,furniture and other products to the EU,Australia,Japan,South Africa and Hong Kong,China.Furthermore,most trade deflections are not realized by lowering export prices,indicating that the trade deflections could compensate for the profit losses caused by the US additional tariffs to a certain extent.The proposed results suggest that searching for substitutions of export markets and a more open trade policy is an important way to avoid profit losses and reduce risks for enterprises and economies suffering from trade frictions.展开更多
文摘美国总统特朗普在竞选时支持“美国优先”的贸易保护主义，曾威胁对中国和其他贸易伙伴国的进口产品征收高额关税。过去一年，中美贸易关系更是复杂多变，从贸易战一触即发到双方走向贸易谈判。本文基于Eaton and Kortum（2002）的多部门一多国家一产业联系的一瑕均衡模型，评估如果美国发动对中国的贸易战，将会对中国及全球62个经济体造成的福利影响。本文主要分析了一旦美国对中国或其他主要工业国家征收45％的关税，中国是否采取反制措施的两种不同情况。校准结果显示，如美国发起贸易战，会对全球贸易造成灾难性影响。但美国也会在可能的贸易战中受损巨大。对中国而言，扩大开放，增加进口减少贸易顺差，是反制美国挑起的中美贸易摩擦最好的选择。
文摘Technological advances,innovation and the new industry 4.0 paradigm guide Distribution System Operators towards a competitive market that requires the articulation of flexible demand response systems.The lack of measurement and standardization systems in the industry process chain in developing countries prevents the penetration of demand management models,generating inefficiency in the analysis and processing of informa-tion to validate the flexibility potential that large consumers can contribute to the network operator.In this sense,the research uses as input variables the energy and power of the load profile provided by the utility energy meter to obtain the disaggregated forecast in quarter-hour intervals in 4-time windows validated through metrics and its results evaluated by the RMS error to get the total error generated by the methodology with the appli-cation of Machine Learning and Big Data techniques in the Python computational tool through Combinatorial Disaggregation Optimization and Factorial Hidden Markov models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.72103184,71988101,71673269the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China under Grant No.19ZDA062the Major Project of the Key Research Base for Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education under Grant No.22JJD790033。
文摘This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs.The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China's exports of tariffed products to the US(i.e.,trade destruction effect),especially intermediate and labor-intensive products.On the other hand,they significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to the third market(i.e.,trade deflection effect).For the$50 billion list,both the trade destruction effect and trade deflection effect are concentrated on processing exports,and the US additional tariffs significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to ASEAN,Japan and Australia.For the$200 billion list,the US additional tariffs boost China's exports of chemicals,textiles,wood,metal products,furniture and other products to the EU,Australia,Japan,South Africa and Hong Kong,China.Furthermore,most trade deflections are not realized by lowering export prices,indicating that the trade deflections could compensate for the profit losses caused by the US additional tariffs to a certain extent.The proposed results suggest that searching for substitutions of export markets and a more open trade policy is an important way to avoid profit losses and reduce risks for enterprises and economies suffering from trade frictions.
