The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and...The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11℃ over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.展开更多
We implemented the online coupled WRF-Chem model to reproduce the 2013 January haze event in North China, and evaluated simulated meteorological and chemical fields using multiple observations. The comparisons suggest...We implemented the online coupled WRF-Chem model to reproduce the 2013 January haze event in North China, and evaluated simulated meteorological and chemical fields using multiple observations. The comparisons suggest that temperature and relative humidity （RH） were simulated well （mean biases are 0.2K and 2.7%, respectively）, but wind speeds were overestimated （mean bias is 0.5 m.s -1）. At the Beijing station, sulfur dioxide （SO2） concentrations were overpredicted and sulfhte concentrations were largely underpredicted, which may result from uncertainties in SO2 emissions and missing heterogeneous oxidation in current model. We conducted three parallel experiments to examine the impacts of doubling SO2 emissions and incorporating heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO2 by nitrogen dioxide （NO2） on sulfate formation during winter haze. The results suggest that doubling SO2 emissions do not significantly affect sulthte concentrations, but adding heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO2 by NO, substantially improve simulations of sulfate and other inorganic aerosols. Although the enhanced SO2 to sulfate conversion in the HetS （heterogeneous oxidation by NO2） case reduces SO2 concentrations, it is still largely overestimated by the model, indicating the overestimations of SO2 concentrations in the North China Plain （NCP） are mostly due to errors in SO2 emission inventory.展开更多
Sulfate aerosol particles have strong scattering effect on the solar radiation transfer which results in increasing the planet albedo and, hence, tend to cool the earth-atmosphere system. Also, aerosols can act as the...Sulfate aerosol particles have strong scattering effect on the solar radiation transfer which results in increasing the planet albedo and, hence, tend to cool the earth-atmosphere system. Also, aerosols can act as the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) which tend to increase the albedo of clouds and cool the global warming. The ARPEGE-Climat version 3 AGCM with FMR radiation scheme is used to estimate the direct and indirect radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. For minimizing the uncertainties in assessing this kind of cooling effect, all kinds of factors are analyzed which have been mixed in the assessment process and may lead to the different results of the radiative forcing of aerosols. It is noticed that one of the uncertainties to assess the climate forcing of aerosols by GCM results from the different definition of radiative forcing that was used. In order to clarify this vague idea, the off-line case for considering no feedbacks and on-line case for including all the feedbacks have been used for assessment. The direct forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is ?0.57 W/ m2 and ?0.38 W/ m2 for the clear sky and all sky respectively. The value of on-line case appears to be a little larger than that in off-line case chiefly due to the feedback of clouds. The indirect forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is ?1.4 W/ m2 and ?1.0 W/ m2 in on-line case. The radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols has obvious regional characteristics. There is a larger negative radiative forcing over North America, Europe and East Asia. If the direct and indirect forcing are added together, it is enough to offset the positive radiative forcing induced by the greenhouse gases in these regions. Key words Radiative forcing - Feedback - Uncertainties - Sulfate aerosols展开更多
基金supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.49875012 and 40231004.
文摘The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11℃ over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.
文摘We implemented the online coupled WRF-Chem model to reproduce the 2013 January haze event in North China, and evaluated simulated meteorological and chemical fields using multiple observations. The comparisons suggest that temperature and relative humidity （RH） were simulated well （mean biases are 0.2K and 2.7%, respectively）, but wind speeds were overestimated （mean bias is 0.5 m.s -1）. At the Beijing station, sulfur dioxide （SO2） concentrations were overpredicted and sulfhte concentrations were largely underpredicted, which may result from uncertainties in SO2 emissions and missing heterogeneous oxidation in current model. We conducted three parallel experiments to examine the impacts of doubling SO2 emissions and incorporating heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO2 by nitrogen dioxide （NO2） on sulfate formation during winter haze. The results suggest that doubling SO2 emissions do not significantly affect sulthte concentrations, but adding heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO2 by NO, substantially improve simulations of sulfate and other inorganic aerosols. Although the enhanced SO2 to sulfate conversion in the HetS （heterogeneous oxidation by NO2） case reduces SO2 concentrations, it is still largely overestimated by the model, indicating the overestimations of SO2 concentrations in the North China Plain （NCP） are mostly due to errors in SO2 emission inventory.
文摘Sulfate aerosol particles have strong scattering effect on the solar radiation transfer which results in increasing the planet albedo and, hence, tend to cool the earth-atmosphere system. Also, aerosols can act as the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) which tend to increase the albedo of clouds and cool the global warming. The ARPEGE-Climat version 3 AGCM with FMR radiation scheme is used to estimate the direct and indirect radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. For minimizing the uncertainties in assessing this kind of cooling effect, all kinds of factors are analyzed which have been mixed in the assessment process and may lead to the different results of the radiative forcing of aerosols. It is noticed that one of the uncertainties to assess the climate forcing of aerosols by GCM results from the different definition of radiative forcing that was used. In order to clarify this vague idea, the off-line case for considering no feedbacks and on-line case for including all the feedbacks have been used for assessment. The direct forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is ?0.57 W/ m2 and ?0.38 W/ m2 for the clear sky and all sky respectively. The value of on-line case appears to be a little larger than that in off-line case chiefly due to the feedback of clouds. The indirect forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is ?1.4 W/ m2 and ?1.0 W/ m2 in on-line case. The radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols has obvious regional characteristics. There is a larger negative radiative forcing over North America, Europe and East Asia. If the direct and indirect forcing are added together, it is enough to offset the positive radiative forcing induced by the greenhouse gases in these regions. Key words Radiative forcing - Feedback - Uncertainties - Sulfate aerosols
